Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Doug is one of the best I know. He is a modern day handicapper. He attacks different types of races from different angles.
I hate Royal Delta in the Distaff, he loves her. That will make me take another look.
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Royal Delta is the key to that race.
It's not unusual for Mott to back off his horses in the race prior to the "main event" to try to get a peak on the right day. I said that somewhere before the confrontation with Princess of Sylmar and again right after the race. Then Mott publicly said as much after the loss a few days later.
The thing is, I think you can make a reasonable case she's not quite as good this year as her peak last year anyway. So even if she was a tad short last time, that doesn't mean she's coming back with her peak of last year in the Distaff. She might run better and still lose.
Plus, I have a very minority opinion on her. IMO she has had way more than her fair share of perfect trips in her career. She had a few sitting just off the pace while her only major contenders were beating each other up, a couple sitting on the rail saving all the ground and then coming out into the stretch, a couple that were bias aided, and she wired or beat up a couple of really bad fields in her big figure wins. So IMO, she was never quite as good as some people were making her out to be to begin with.
I guess that sounds like I am really negative on her chances, but I'm not. She is VERY good on her best day and I understand Doug's probable thinking.
IMO she's just not quite a good as most people think and I think that's why her record is a little spotty.