Betting Exchanges and Hype

[thaskalos]

Of course there is a liquidity problem in USA maiden races...American residents are not permitted to wager with Betfair at this time. But if the Betfair wagering concept is adopted in this country, then this liquidity problem will be resolved...and bettors will be able to bet whatever they want...wherever they want it.

To me...the Betfair wagering concept is a godsend.

All my wagering life I have had the innate ability to eliminate false favorites at short prices...but I cannot fully capitalize on it, because I often cannot formulate another betting opinion on the race.

What I wouldn't give for the chance to wager AGAINST these false favorites...

[nearco]

That's a really odd argument. You are against the whole idea of Betting Exchanges because you can't get someone in a foreign country to match you on a larger sum on first time starter, who you probably have some insider info on?
Oookaaay.

So basically exchanges suck because there aren't enough suckers out there.

[BIG49010]

I watch Betfair markets on one of my screens at all times.

If anything the prices on first time starters on Betfair are 30 -40% higher than the track odds as a rule. If they are not, someone is operating with a trainer, you watch the tote you will figure it out. Knowledge is power.

You will see very strong sheet or figure horses that seem to get bet below the track odds quite often, but that makes for oportunities on other horses. You see strong action on a horse below the tote, makes you look a little closer to see what is going on.

Belmont as rule on Betfair is clean. Penn National, or Mountaineer you see some strange stuff.

[lamboguy]

i have a 2 fold reason for not being on the side for exchanges. the most important one is that i feel it will detract from on track handle. the amount that they will pay back to the track will not make up for what they will lose with betfair. the racetracks have to pay to put out a product. it costs big money to one a race day program. in foreign countries horseracing is stocked from the very elite people all over the rule. the queen of england just spent the whole week at royal ascot. the purse structure overseas is much smaller than what it is in this country. a maiden auction race has a purse of maybe $5000. on nyra that purse is $60k today. in the united states we have more people involved int he ownership of horses that are blue collar type people. in england its all sheiks and royalties. we don't have a kingdom here, and we don't have to many arab sheiks walking around the streets of louisville kentucky these days. of course things could change here some day and that might present the need for betfair. today it doesn't though and that is why i am against betfair.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if i were to play stake races i am sure i would never have a problem with betfair. i play maiden races full of first time starters. whatever i could get matched in those races aren't worth the time and effort to bother with them.

the question i have for you since you think you know so much about betfarir is have you ever got down for a $200 bet on a first time starter running in any nyra track?

I am more familiar with E-Horse Exchange. When it comes to FTS, there will sometimes be no money available, sometimes small amounts from other regular players, or the money available will be at odds lower than those available at the track (so that someone that books a bet can turn around and lock in an arbitrage by betting it at the track). Sometimes there's plenty available though.

Everyone knows that it's difficult for outsiders to evaluate FTS well. There are insiders, clockers, and others that may know things about the horse that most outsiders don't, may have seen the horse work in company, may have seen the horse work on a farm somewhere etc... So no one is going to make a lot of money available at an attractive price when they have no idea what the fair price should be, but may be competing with someone that does.

What you want is for people to be total assholes and give their money to you. We should all be so lucky, but this is the real world.

The idea that the exchanges are bad because most people know they are at a disadvantage when it comes to FTS and won't allow you to rape and pillage them is silly. All markets are the same. Everybody is competing for an edge and no one is giving money away.

What you should do is take advantage of whatever you can get on the exchanges, put the rest through the pari mutual pools, and count your blessings when you get some money through the windows on the exchange at a better price and the horse wins.

That's what I do. Sometimes I want to make a big bet but only see a small amount of money available at a crazy price. I take as much as I can get and send rest through at the track. Sometimes I get 10-1 on a 5-1 shot for all the money. At the end of the year, it adds up.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i have a 2 fold reason for not being on the side for exchanges. the most important one is that i feel it will detract from on track handle. the amount that they will pay back to the track will not make up for what they will lose with betfair. the racetracks have to pay to put out a product. it costs big money to one a race day program. in foreign countries horseracing is stocked from the very elite people all over the rule. the queen of england just spent the whole week at royal ascot. the purse structure overseas is much smaller than what it is in this country. a maiden auction race has a purse of maybe $5000. on nyra that purse is $60k today. in the united states we have more people involved int he ownership of horses that are blue collar type people. in england its all sheiks and royalties. we don't have a kingdom here, and we don't have to many arab sheiks walking around the streets of louisville kentucky these days. of course things could change here some day and that might present the need for betfair. today it doesn't though and that is why i am against betfair.

This is a fair criticism and it's an issue that needs to be resolved between the tracks and all the off track entities that take wagers

[lamboguy]

from what i have seen on the betfair matches, it leaves me with the perception that the maiden races in the united states have the most amount of match's compared to other races here. maiden races are bet very heavy at tracks throughout the united states. saratoga does a huge amount of business on on maiden races, probably more than any other track stateside. yet when my friend try's to bet my horses on betfair he gets limited action. from what i can see its a very efficient market for the sharks, and not so great for me. i know ahead of time that if i were to win using betfair all i can win is chicken feed. if anything it defeats the purpose of what it makes its claim to fame for.

the real bottom line is that if a person is going to bet only on betfair he will get less value for the total amount of money he wagers compared to the pari-mutual system. the reason why i am sure of this is that i know even if a person is not playing maiden races, he is up against sharks that are equipped with better pace figures and faster computers and strong information so when the player gets matched he is going to be at a severe disadvantage. if the player winds up on the "right" horse he can't get matched for what he wants. if he is on the "wrong" horse he can bet until the cows come home. and it doesn't matter from whichever direction the player is coming from, layer or player, he is going to get the worst of it more often than not.

i will admit that in theory betfair sounds great, but we don't live in theory, we live in reality. and the reality of betfair is precisely the way i have it spelled out.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Of course there is a liquidity problem in USA maiden races...American residents are not permitted to wager with Betfair at this time. But if the Betfair wagering concept is adopted in this country, then this liquidity problem will be resolved...and bettors will be able to bet whatever they want...wherever they want it.

To me...the Betfair wagering concept is a godsend.

All my wagering life I have had the innate ability to eliminate false favorites at short prices...but I cannot fully capitalize on it, because I often cannot formulate another betting opinion on the race.

What I wouldn't give for the chance to wager AGAINST these false favorites...

The problem is that whatever America comes up with betting-exchance wise it won't nearly be as good as betfair OR will have as big of betting handle.

The question i want to know is this. If America legalizes betting exchanges, why would a person sign up with those exchanges and not just sign up with Betfair themselves?

[BIG49010]

Yesterday as an example of how they might not be as sharp on Betfair as many think.

The 6th at Belmont was taken off the grass, and Linda Rice ran an uncoupled pair.

The (1) Power Blast a turf horse was 2-1 on betfair with a huge handle, so the sharpies would be laying the horse (I guess) knowing he had not run on dirt.

The (10) Fight For VLT's (MTO) who was 3rd choice early in the betting, and was bet late at Belmont and Won was 5-1+ Betfair and paid 7.70 to win.

[Robert Goren]

There are plenty of issues with betting exchanges to be picked at by supporters or naysayers. But most of it come down to one real issue, the amount of money coming out of the bettors pocket that goes to the race track. Handicappers are desperately seeking a way to keep more their wagering dollar. The tracks and horsemen are desperately trying to hang on every dollar now being kept. That is the bottom line. The rest of the stuff is minor. I doubt that we ever see it in the US because the horsemen have enough power to stop it.

[lamboguy]

i have yet to see betfair offer NYRA anything for using their product to make money on, yet there is alot of handle that has gone to betfair instead of making it in the windows of NYRA and other tracks. on the day of the belmont i am told that betfair had over $10 million in matches on that card. NYRA only did $80 million, yet they had to pay the purses, and all the help at the track, betfair sat their with a pad of paper and a pencil and figured out how much money they made without having to provide the entertainment.

[Robert Goren]

An interesting point brought up in the following article. It is easy to drug a horse to run slower.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ing?source=rss

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

An interesting point brought up in the following article. It is easy to drug a horse to run slower.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ing?source=rss

And it's also easier on Betfair to see unusual trading activity, and I'm sure there is enough people who'll catch a trend of a certain trainers horses running up the track at short odds with lots of layside action on Betfair. I centainly notice the opposite on Carla Gaines or Englehart horses taking a lot of back side action on BF.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

please, i have been wagering on horses for 40 years. its not legal for me being a resident of the united states to personally make a wager on betfair. i explained on this thread what happened with a friend of mine that is 100% square guy in england. let me explain this to you so you might understand this perfectly clear, betfair did not spend all this time and money to put up a platform for anyone to take money out of their system that is not tied in with betfair itself. i would not doubt for one minute that if i were to get matched with betfair that its not one of their own personal computers there to take my money.

That's just wrong. Why on earth would they do that.
So what happened to this guy?

if i were to play stake races i am sure i would never have a problem with betfair. i play maiden races full of first time starters. whatever i could get matched in those races aren't worth the time and effort to bother with them.

the question i have for you since you think you know so much about betfarir is have you ever got down for a $200 bet on a first time starter running in any nyra track?

Yes. And a lot more. Remember we're talking about American races being bet on by non-American customers at this point.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by Some_One

And it's also easier on Betfair to see unusual trading activity, and I'm sure there is enough people who'll catch a trend of a certain trainers horses running up the track at short odds with lots of layside action on Betfair. I centainly notice the opposite on Carla Gaines or Englehart horses taking a lot of back side action on BF.

There is no doubt that there are American trainers/jockey's who are using Betfair. I've seen way too many suspicious betting patterns that were followed by very questionable rides. Often the horse will be heavily laid to win (=lose the race). I guess it's more risky to lay the horse to place/show.