I was able to easily run a bunch of queries using Stats Race Lens on this subject. The great thing about the querying tool is when using a specific track the data set now covers five years:
The criteria was "Tampa Bay Downs, Turf," "last race different track,"last race all-weather."
315 starts covering 268 races
8% win, 7% place, 10% show, ROI -63%
Changing the surface for the race at Tampa to dirt, the results were:
448 starts covering 400 races
8% win, 8% place, 12% show, -67% ROI
I could easily break these down by sprint, route and other factors (such as track of last race) but I imagine the sample sizes are going to get small enough with additional criteria that the confidence level may be insufficient to draw different conclusions than the big set.
|