Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 8 votes, 4.00 average.
Old 11-02-2016, 03:19 AM   #46
thaskalos
Loitering with intent
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 25,577
When ReplayRandall talks stocks...even E. F. Hutton listens.
__________________
"Gentlemen, we will chase perfection, and we will chase it relentlessly...while knowing all the while that we can never attain it. But along the way, we shall catch excellence."
-- Vince Lombardi
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 10:00 AM   #47
reckless
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.

Last edited by reckless; 11-02-2016 at 10:03 AM.
reckless is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 10:03 AM   #48
forced89
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 600
I'm 100% in a Low Duration Bond Fund, Gold, Silver and my horses. I believe that the probability of a big move down is greater than a big move up during the next 12 months.
forced89 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 01:56 PM   #49
Valuist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,438
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.
If Trump wins, a company like Gilead could skyrocket. After Hillary's comments against biotech and big pharma in mid 2015, those stocks all took a pretty severe haircut.
Valuist is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 03:27 PM   #50
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 69,497
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing
I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living...
PaceAdvantage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 06:37 PM   #51
Secondbest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,669
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I disagree pretty strongly. But then again, I don't invest, I trade...I leave the investing to a few select choices in my 401k and such.

I just can't wrap my head around the fact that the market has done nothing but go UP for the past 8 years...and you're telling me we're close to the buying opportunity of a generation? With interest rates about to go higher?

Not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get it...which is why I'm probably still working for a living...
Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA
Secondbest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-02-2016, 06:46 PM   #52
ReplayRandall
Mount Rushmore
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Charlotte, NC
Posts: 8,389
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
Take a look at the 10 minute trendline in TZA
Ambitious strike of 45.00, wouldn't you say?
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 03:46 AM   #53
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,622
hold on to your hats...

Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 04:00 AM   #54
reckless
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
Huge gap up tonight in the future, as The Hag appears to avoid jail (this week), and should win the election.

Assuming there's no major violence this week and The Hag pulls off the election victory, I think it makes for a great SHORT swing trade late in the week or sometime next week. As the elation of her victory wears off, and more traders realize the economy is still screwed, some of the move up should dissipate. And if the 25-30 point gap is still intact in the S&P from tonight's jump, that should make a nice target to close out the trade.....

Just my two cents. Which is probably what it's worth.
There will be huge trading moves these next few weeks, regardless of the election outcome.

This is why I mentioned earlier that it's best to build a position in a great company such as Gilead over a period of the next few months.

If the market skyrockets solely because of a Hillary win, it only demonstrates yet again that the financial markets are as corrupt as the US government and Central Bank.

Your opinions are worth much more than two cents, Park...
reckless is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 04:04 AM   #55
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,622
Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
We're getting very close to a generational buying opportunity in investing, especially if one's horizon is in years and not minutes or hours. Day traders, chartists, business TV gurus, nor 'players' see this lifetime chance, and that's OK by me.

If one's time horizon is in fact longer than the hours between Squawk Box and The Five... then it will bode you all well if you start and begin a purchasing plan right now, and through the 1st Quarter of 2017.

Stay away from mutual funds, ETFs and the like, plus those very risky and over-priced bonds and commodities.

Buy individual stocks! There are dozens and dozens of companies right now selling at a fraction of their intrinsic value. Some could get even cheaper, I understand, but to try to time a bottom will be both silly and costly.

Today, Gilead Sciences will probably take a hit because the Street says it had a 'disappointing' quarter! Use the next 2-3-10 days as a buying opportunity to accumulate shares in one of the greatest companies on earth.

Gilead Sciences has tons of cash, grows it's Free Cash Flow at double digit rates and currently sells for about 6 times 2015 FCF!! The company is worth $144-150 at a bare minimum and is closer to a $225-250 stock in three years. Plus you get a growing dividend while you wait.

Oh yeah, it produces a life saving drug to those suffering from Hepatitis C -- yes, you read correctly, a life saving drug.

There are many additional great companies selling at either fire sale prices or at best, below intrinsic value right now. Don't miss this chance.
I had to read this post a couple of times, but still couldn't find the /sarcasm tags.....are you serious?

Your assumptions that longer term small caps will grow is possible, but relies on things staying pretty much the same, with the Fed continuing to print madly, and somehow the U.S. staying out of war. That's a bad bet, IMHO, in the age of an empire in decline, and the rule of law for the oligarchs pretty much non-existent.

Many of the brighter minds of economics are betting on a huge deflation event. If that occurs, then a $140 stock today may be trading for $25 three years from now, if not out of business. Anything in health care is only a few pen strokes away (nationalized medicine or tossing Obamacare into the ditch) from skyrocketing OR dumping. Gun and ammo manufacturers are in the same boat. Durables like cars, washing machines, etc., are harder to come by when almost 100 million are not in the work force, and those remaining with employment are often taking a pay cut.

Our infrastructure is falling apart, and with the various levels of government scrambling more and more to balance their budgets with increased revenue, they're finding the lemon has been squeezed, peeled, grated, has no more juice, and the lemon orchard has been chopped down for firewood.

What does war usually do to an economy? With all the saber rattling going on, that seems a pretty good bet. Perhaps some defense stocks?

For now, I'll stick to short term trades. But if someone was going to hold a gun to my head and make me buy stocks that I had to hold long term, I'd be looking at petroleum or water companies. And that's about it....
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 08:19 AM   #56
sammy the sage
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
Repo's of cars just skyrocketed nationwide...very BAD sign...

My own business is doing half of normal the last 4 months...just like early 07....very BAD sign...

would tread very careful...

By the way...for the APTLY named poster "Reckless"...those companies that seem undervalued....they keep giving GIANT BONUS stock options that WILL BE exercised at some point....destroying investors equity...maybe...just maybe that's priced in...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
sammy the sage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 08:42 AM   #57
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,814
Futures

Futures are crazy this morning, day before election.
FakeNameChanged is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 08:55 AM   #58
pandy
Registered User
 
pandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,059
Long Term

The way I see the market going forward with a Clinton Presidency is the start of bear market at some point in the next year or so. But, I have a hard time factoring in corporate sales from overseas. Can our economy continue to stay flat or weaken, but the corporations still do well because of China and other countries? What if those emerging economies hit a bubble? I'd love to see some practical analysis of this.

Here in the U.S., it's hard to see how the middle class doesn't cut down on spending. The average home owner now has three mortgages, health care insurance, mortgage, and property taxes. My parents had one mortgage, their health care was covered by their employer, and for most of the years that they owned their home real estate taxes were dramatically lower than they are now.

Add to that the high cost of college education and student loans and the high cost of health care in general. Then you have the potential for amnesty for illegals, continued illegal immigration, which would create even more welfare payments and more stress on the economy, which equates to more demands on the American taxpayer. I don't see how the Americans can spend enough money to keep wall st. hopping.

So the question becomes, can overseas sales keep these corporations profits growing?
pandy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 10:22 AM   #59
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 16,666
Wall St is definitely backing Clinton. A Clinton presidency means business as usual.

More bonuses, more bailouts as needed, more easy money from the Fed, more rape and pillage of the US middle class, more rape and pillage of 3rd world countries, etc.. #letthegoodtimesroll

The problem is the world is in the largest financial asset/debt bubble in the history of mankind. It's going to blow up on somebodies watch and it appears very likely it will be within the next 4 years.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 11-07-2016 at 10:24 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 11-07-2016, 10:51 PM   #60
reckless
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: near Philadelphia
Posts: 4,560
Ahhh, a wonderful day in the stock market, with a very strong Hillary Will Win rally.

Since the reason for the rally is totally and completely groundless, I took this opportunity to unload on a few companies I've held for some time.

I will use the freed up cash to buy some of the more incredibly undervalued companies when the markets take a hit on Wednesday and Thursday. And it will, giving back most or more so its gain today.

You see, if the market rallied today simply because of a perceived but incorrect notion of a Hillary win, these same silly paper shufflers should sell, sell, sell! with a Donald Trump victory, no? That's a yes. Yes they will sell, sell, sell!

I just can't wait as the cognoscenti will be proven wrong once more.
reckless is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
preferred pick 5 type
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2021 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.