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Old 10-04-2016, 05:14 PM   #31
Saratoga_Mike
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Originally Posted by barn32
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.
The beauty of Trump is he surrounds himself with the best people. Great advisors. Great managers. It's really great. Therefore, if Mr. Trump defers to Carl Icahn on such matters, he must be the man to listen to on such matters. Many would object by saying, "Mr. Icahn isn't really a macro investor," but I trust Mr. Trump is well aware of this.
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Old 10-04-2016, 07:22 PM   #32
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My prediction is that the is S&P will hit a high somewhere between 2367 and 2474 between now and January 12. That is a 10% to 15% gain over the July 14, 2016 close of 2152.

A major "buy" indicator was triggered on July 8 when the Up Volume to Down Volume ratio on the NYSE exceeded 9 to 1. Two days later another "buy" indicator was triggered when the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio on the NYSE exceeded 2 to 1. This indicator is very rare, but is an extremely powerful momentum indicator. It happened 11 times from 1953 to 1993, but every time the market rose by nearly 10% over the next 6 months. The average gain was 15%. (I will calculate from 1993 to present and see if it holds true.)

The S&P closed today at 2150 -- right where it was back on July 12. Considering that September is one of the weakest months of the year. The market has plenty of upside.

The presidential election is a big factor. The market traditionally does better under democratic presidents than republicans. If Clinton wins the market should continue higher. Probably because the Fed will keep interest rates low and continue its policy of quantitative easing.

If Trump wins then all bets are off.

Last edited by highnote; 10-04-2016 at 07:28 PM.
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Old 10-04-2016, 08:01 PM   #33
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There was a long break from 1993 to 2009 where the Up Stocks to Down Stocks ratio over a 10 day period never triggered the buy signal by hitting 2 to 1.

On January 8, 2009 it hit 1.96 to 1 -- close enough. The S&P was at 1289. Six months later, on July 8 the S&P was at 2195. Nice gain.

On July 24 the ratio hit 2.34 to 1 and the S&P was at 2172. Six months later on January 24 the S&P hit 2575. A 400 point gain. Not bad.

On February 17, 2014 the ratio hit 1.97 to 1. Again, close enough. Six months later the S&P was at 1971 -- a 100 point gain.

On July 12, 2016 the ratio was 2.19 to 1 and the S&P was at 2152. Where will it be on January 12, 2017?

Historically, the gain has been about 5% after 3 months. So by Oct 15 I would not be surprised to see the S&P at 2259 -- up about 100 points.

Last edited by highnote; 10-04-2016 at 08:02 PM.
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Old 10-05-2016, 12:21 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by AndyC
Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?
I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.
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Old 10-05-2016, 12:32 AM   #35
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate
I think one could accurately state the markets are in a place they've never been before, with all the Central Bank interventions. Technical analysis is trumped by news flow and external intervention. So yes, in a sense, nobody really "knows" the markets.

The BEARS insist that the continuing increase in debt ($1.4T in 2016) and market manipulations to keep prices propped up will result in a massive correction - and soon. Fundamental changes like population overshoot, climate change, peak oil, etc., are combining to deflate the growth models that economic policy has been built on since the end of World War 2. Simple math indicates we're in for a massive deflation event. In other words, the 4th Turning.

The BULLS insist debt is not a concern, and "easing"/printing can continue indefinitely, and market pain is a thing of the past. There's no mechanism in the markets that prevents debt from being written off or deferred, and the Central Banks can make up the difference with their PRINT button. Technology like fracking and emission reductions will save us, so we can continue to party like it's 1999.

Needless to say, the politicians are not up to the challenge to seriously address these problems, and so toss political upheaval on top of the economic issues - and the outlook is rather gloomy, IMHO.
Not bad Parkview, not bad at all......Solid post..
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Old 10-05-2016, 10:13 AM   #36
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I understand the technical analysis, and the artificial boosting of the markets with quantitative easing and low interest rates. But, I noticed that no one in this thread mentioned corporate profits. Is growth in China, India, South America, and other emerging economies, going to stay strong enough to support U.S. corporations in the next year or so?
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Old 10-10-2016, 01:30 PM   #37
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Saw this an thought it applied here. I'm no economist, but I'm starting to see businesses and restaurants closing here in my hometown reminds me of 2008.

http://www.newsmax.com/Economy/bankr.../10/id/752515/
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Old 10-31-2016, 09:28 PM   #38
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In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189
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Old 10-31-2016, 10:00 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189
Don't be too hard on yourself Randall, the drop may still arrive and like you say better 6 months too early than 1 minute late..Gerald Celente of Trends Journal has been predicting a collapse for at least 5 long years now to no avail so go figure....I think the market is sideways or lower now for awhile so what is the point of staying in now? But as long as the globe is awash in oil like it is now and they can print up money out of thin air like they do at the FED, the market ought to be able to stay sideways for awhile baring the unforseen at least....but obviously I'm no expert so who really knows.....?

Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 10-31-2016 at 10:02 PM.
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:31 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
The stock market moved sideways the whole month with little volatility. It ended up slightly down across the board, thus saving me from a total bust of a prediction....Final Grade: D

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312

As of the close on Oct. 31st, S&P: 2126....Dow:18,142....Nasdaq:5189

I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.
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Old 11-01-2016, 08:09 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by highnote
I'm 50% in cash, but will look to make a move one way or another after the election.

If Clinton wins the market should go higher. If Trump wins we will be in uncharted waters. Anything could happen.
When Trump wins just buy the dip

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
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Last edited by PICSIX; 11-01-2016 at 08:12 AM.
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Old 11-01-2016, 11:08 AM   #42
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When Trump wins just buy the dip

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
I agree. But I think the “dip” may be 2000 points in the Dow.
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Old 11-01-2016, 03:26 PM   #43
ReplayRandall
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I agree. But I think the “dip” may be 2000 points in the Dow.
And as of 2:30 PM EST, the stock market finally starts the plunge....


  • S&P 500
    2,100.46
    -25.69 (-1.21 %)
  • Dow 30
    17,954.71
    -187.71 (-1.03 %)
  • Nasdaq
    5,118.71
    -70.42 (-1.36 %)

Last edited by ReplayRandall; 11-01-2016 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 11-01-2016, 05:29 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
And as of 2:30 PM EST, the stock market finally starts the plunge....


  • S&P 500
    2,100.46
    -25.69 (-1.21 %)
  • Dow 30
    17,954.71
    -187.71 (-1.03 %)
  • Nasdaq
    5,118.71
    -70.42 (-1.36 %)
Today's close

S&P. 2111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)
Dow. 18037.10 -105.32 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq. 5153.58 -35.56. (-0.69%)

Looks like the Apocalypse took an afternoon nap.
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Old 11-01-2016, 06:09 PM   #45
ReplayRandall
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Originally Posted by barahona44
Today's close

S&P. 2111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)
Dow. 18037.10 -105.32 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq. 5153.58 -35.56. (-0.69%)

Looks like the Apocalypse took an afternoon nap.
That's what happens when "Dips" buy the dips....Used to be a good strategy, not anymore...
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