Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE - Page 27 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

lamboguy · 03-22-2018, 04:53 PM

they just got me good in the 9th at Gulfstream. i bet way before the race thinking the horse was going to come from just off the pace. he opens up 5 and odds drop in half from 16-1 to 8-1.

what a tough game and i try to stay away from early speed.

Denny · 03-22-2018, 05:22 PM

There are just too many occurrences at Gulfstream Park for them to be anomalies. There's got to be something crooked going on.

Someone needs to launch an investigation into the goings-on there.

But, who???

Who's responsibility is it to protect the public from this?

The racing media seems to be turning a blind eye. (HRI for example online. Don't want to lose those advertising dollars JP?)

PaceAdvantage · 03-22-2018, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Anyone can get the exacta matrix. I'm losing hair reading the constant rebuttals from people in the industry against the claim "people have direct access to the tote". Perhaps some one has some magical terminal to read odds changes quicker than you or I can (directly from the tote), but I have yet to see anyone post ANY proof that ANY bettor has access to the tri/super/p3/etc matrices.

It's getting to the point where I'm convinced most (all?) of the people who are complaining are losers searching for a boogyman.

It would be very simple for someone to post an anonymous video of such a thing, if it exists.

I'm betting it never surfaces...or if it does, it's a hoax video...

PaceAdvantage · 03-22-2018, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJC922

Has nothing to do with better handicapping and everything to do with someone consistently being allowed to bet after the masses do. Let's say you're the best handicapper in the world and I'm just very good, you know a horse should be 2-1 and it's 7-2 at zero MTP. You of course place your bet, now they're loading and I'm able to sit at the hub with a hook in the system, when the gates pop I know this horse is actually closer to 3-1 at that moment and the windows will lockout in say 5-10 seconds. The difference at this point isn't handicapping, the difference is my advantage when betting this late, you're a sitting duck now, you have no defense.

I simply bet just enough to take the horse down to 2-1. Let's say you're correct and long-term this horse wins at 2-1, you break-even at best and I break-even plus I get a big rebate check. These people will rarely end up getting paid back less than their odds-line, for everyone else it's inevitable to land on too many underlays, especially at tracks like Mountaineer where an absurd 48% of the pool is coming in after 0 MTP.

What's stopping you from sitting in front of your PC at your favorite ADW (especially one that accepts batch wagering), and dumping tons of bets into the system as they are loading into the gate...thereby "being allowed to bet after the masses do."

You can do it too...what's stopping you?

PaceAdvantage · 03-22-2018, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

sorry you are 100% wrong. if you are a $25 million a year bettor, i will be able to get you a consul that hooks up directly to the tote. if you are that bettor please contact me, i will be more than happy to get you hooked up.

If this is true, then you'll be able to explain to me, in great detail, EXACTLY WHAT BEING "HOOKED UP DIRECTLY TO THE TOTE" means...EXACTLY.

I'm hooked up to the tote too...

PaceAdvantage · 03-22-2018, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

What does this mean? It's repeated over and over and over and over again

Man, you sound just like me...I was having this argument on here just a few weeks ago, saying the exact same things you are saying...

I'll give you a word of advice...don't waste your time.

People are going to believe whatever it is that makes them feel better.

PaceAdvantage · 03-22-2018, 05:42 PM

So Dave says with one of those terminals (or something like it), you get a "Tick Feed" of the bets...kind of like a stock market? You get to see the individual bets come through? You get to see, perhaps, what the highest individual win bet has been on a particular horse?

Pretty cool...is that what lambo means when he says you'll get things that will blow you away?

That wouldn't really blow me away. It's kind of cool, but that's about it.

lamboguy · 03-22-2018, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If this is true, then you'll be able to explain to me, in great detail, EXACTLY WHAT BEING "HOOKED UP DIRECTLY TO THE TOTE" means...EXACTLY.

I'm hooked up to the tote too...

i believe it means you are hooked into the host track directly without going through a hub.

JerryBoyle · 03-22-2018, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So Dave says with one of those terminals (or something like it), you get a "Tick Feed" of the bets...kind of like a stock market? You get to see the individual bets come through? You get to see, perhaps, what the highest individual win bet has been on a particular horse?

Pretty cool...is that what lambo means when he says you'll get things that will blow you away?

That wouldn't really blow me away. It's kind of cool, but that's about it.

From Dave's description, I don't think you got any special or new data that you couldn't get by scraping an ADW's site. You just get it at the time it's being aggregated from all tracks before being disseminated to the ADW's. Basically you're hooking in to the hub that the ADW's are hooked in to.

That being said, I don't believe that's where the advantage is coming from for the successful large players. My roi wouldn't suddenly skyrocket if I got access to it. And it's not unfair, as we can all get access to it

JerryBoyle · 03-22-2018, 05:55 PM

Most importantly, it does not give you access to any tri/super/p3/etc matrices

GMB@BP · 03-22-2018, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Sadly, many people have moved on.

Yea, sometimes you get the feeling there may be opinions that racing is actually doing well.

MJC922 · 03-22-2018, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

What's stopping you from sitting in front of your PC at your favorite ADW (especially one that accepts batch wagering), and dumping tons of bets into the system as they are loading into the gate...thereby "being allowed to bet after the masses do."

You can do it too...what's stopping you?

tbh dude i wouldn't be able to look at myself in a mirror if i banked a million dollars doing it that way. I'm ok with outworking people and using my experience to beat the game but i wouldn't go looking for that type of edge. anyone who seeks this type of edge out i'd be hard pressed to have much respect for.

It has ruined the game not just for me but for a lot of players who really loved it. i am talking about what was mentioned in Beyer's article. i am not against conditional wagering as long as we're all looking at the same odds and betting locks for everyone at the same time.

Denny · 03-22-2018, 07:29 PM

If it's possible to place bets at GP after the race starts, that's a federal crime.

Is anyone in the horseracing media, or any media, bringing this to the attention of government officials if they suspect it to be happening?

Or, is this just speculation and bs that people are spreading?
____

If bets are not happening after the bell, then who cares?

It's parimutuels after all and that's how they work! It's how they have always worked.

green80 · 03-22-2018, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasch

Santa Anita Sunday Race 1.......

The 4 is 5-1 early 12 seconds into the race then her number goes out of the top 4

Comes flying down the stretch.....new odds 5-2

Perception is HORRIBLE, how do you explain THAT to a new fan?

Makes a good case for exchange betting.

Dave Schwartz · 03-22-2018, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So Dave says with one of those terminals (or something like it), you get a "Tick Feed" of the bets...kind of like a stock market? You get to see the individual bets come through? You get to see, perhaps, what the highest individual win bet has been on a particular horse?

Pretty cool...is that what lambo means when he says you'll get things that will blow you away?

That wouldn't really blow me away. It's kind of cool, but that's about it.

If what I said sounded the least bit like that I need to say it differently.

What I said is that you may be able to get the same level of access as SuperTote or some ADWs get. In other words, a little sooner because the middleman has been eliminated.

But you would still be at the mercy of the tote system's built in updating methods. As far as I am aware, there is nothing that comes close to "tick-level" data.

Dave