Jockey Club Gold Cup

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by cj

Here you go. These could change a point when made official, didn't look that close at the rounding

1/4 171
1/2 171
3/4 154
1m 137
Fin 121

Discreet Lover 123
Thunder Snow 123
Mendelssohn 123
Carlino 116
Diversify 121
Gronkowski 114
Uno Mas Modelo 112
Patch 85

Thanks for posting this....even tho you didn't have too...

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Here you go. These could change a point when made official, didn't look that close at the rounding

1/4 171
1/2 171
3/4 154
1m 137
Fin 121

Discreet Lover 123
Thunder Snow 123
Mendelssohn 123
Carlino 116
Diversify 121
Gronkowski 114
Uno Mas Modelo 112
Patch 85

Thanks cj, Looks like my final figure prediction's were even closer than I imagined. Crazy half mile. What excuse did Ortiz and Moore give for their suicidal pace wild rides.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Here you go. These could change a point when made official, didn't look that close at the rounding

1/4 171
1/2 171
3/4 154
1m 137
Fin 121

Discreet Lover 123
Thunder Snow 123
Mendelssohn 123
Carlino 116
Diversify 121
Gronkowski 114
Uno Mas Modelo 112
Patch 85

I noticed something interesting in the results. While most of the horses pace adjusted figures match their previous performances pretty well, Diversify's figure seems have dropped a lot more, even when adjusted for pace. This reminds me of a thread we had a while back where I noted the exponential, rather than linear effects of pace.

I believe you understood this when you explained my point with the example you gave of a 6F race run in 1:11. If the half was run in 46, there would be no adjustment for pace. If the half were run in 45 the final figure could be increased by 3. If the half was run in a blistering 44 the final figure would more likely have to adjusted by 5.

I think that's what we saw with Diversify's figure. I think with his blazing early fractions he entered the twilight zone where the pace adjustment formula, that works so well in most cases, underestimated his final figure. The effect of his fast pace increased exponentially.

I think you addressed this issue on Twitter when you responded to a tweet questioning your use of pace adjustments where you wrote that actually there are times where the pace adjustments are not enough. I think Diversify's figure in this race is just such a case.

Fortunately what you're doing in adjusting the final figure for pace works well a large majority of the time. In extreme cases like Diversify, I simply add a plus to the horses already adjusted final figure.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I noticed something interesting in the results. While most of the horses pace adjusted figures match their previous performances pretty well, Diversify's figure seems have dropped a lot more, even when adjusted for pace. This reminds me of a thread we had a while back where I noted the exponential, rather than linear effects of pace.

I believe you understood this when you explained my point with the example you gave of a 6F race run in 1:11. If the half was run in 46, there would be no adjustment for pace. If the half were run in 45 the final figure could be increased by 3. If the half was run in a blistering 44 the final figure would more likely have to adjusted by 5.

I think that's what we saw with Diversify's figure. I think with his blazing early fractions he entered the twilight zone where the pace adjustment formula, that works so well in most cases, underestimated his final figure. The effect of his fast pace increased exponentially.

I think you addressed this issue on Twitter when you responded to a tweet questioning your use of pace adjustments where you wrote that actually there are times where the pace adjustments are not enough. I think Diversify's figure in this race is just such a case.

Fortunately what you're doing in adjusting the final figure for pace works well a large majority of the time. In extreme cases like Diversify, I simply add a plus to the horses already adjusted final figure.

I agree, Diversify probably ran better than the number, but I like to leave that to the handicapper. If I don't limit the adjustments you get a lot of totally crazy horses looking really good that I wouldn't bet with free money.

[cj]

Twitter

[PIC6SIX]

Please explain what you mean by the term "little horse graphics"???? Are you saying there are few running lines? Are you saying Mend's running lines at Mey and Europe are not stat user friendly like those in DRF, Bris and etc???

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...24168345079808

Have the final figures been adjusted for pace yet?

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I believe you understood this when you explained my point with the example you gave of a 6F race run in 1:11. If the half was run in 46, there would be no adjustment for pace. If the half were run in 45 the final figure could be increased by 3. If the half was run in a blistering 44 the final figure would more likely have to adjusted by 5.

.

cj,

I just realized I did an incomplete job with my example. What I should have added is that if the race is run in really crazy half of 43, the effect on the horses performance figure would would be exponentially greater than the 2 extra points the second added to the horses' performance between a half run in 44 instead of 45. The effect on the final figure would probably have to increase to 3 or 4 extra points - in that extreme case.

In any case, I'm glad to see you got my point despite the incomplete example.
I also understand that if you did this across the board you might come up with some crazy figures.

[bobphilo]

I'm leaning increasingly towards Mendellsohn for the BC Classic. I may be wrong but I think that Catholic Boy is being a bit over-rated, mainly on the strength of his Travers win. That race came up much slower than expected and many of the top contenders did not run their best races. He tracked a much slower pace than Diversity set in the JCGC and, while he did beat Mendelssohn in that race, Mendy's performance in the JCGC indicates that he is cycling back to the freakishly fast figure he set in the U.A.E. Derby and the BC Classic is the race he has been pointed to all along.
I would not throw out Diversity either due to the JCGC. That performance should get a line put through it due to the suicidal pace he set. Of course if that was because he cannot be rated, rather than a rider pace error, then he could be vulnerable in the BC Classic. That might be true for Mendy as well but a lot depends on what the pace and strategies will be in the Classic.

[cj]

At this point I like Mind Your Biscuits. He will show up and run well, I'm sure of that. He isn't pace dependent. And the rest just haven't impressed me lately.

[bobphilo]

Matt Bernier of the DRF gives an excellent analysis of the JCGC with an eye towards the BC Classic. He makes a good case for Thunder Snow, who's excellent performance I somehow overlooked.

YouTube

[GMB@BP]

I just view Thunder Snow as losing a very winnable race with an absolute ideal setup. He is not impossible but feels like he should not be less than 20/1.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I just view Thunder Snow as losing a very winnable race with an absolute ideal setup. He is not impossible but feels like he should not be less than 20/1.

Descreet Lover is the one who got the ideal trip. Thunder Snow laid off the hot pace but not enough, as DL did. Check the pace figures of the 2 horses. His Dubai WC win and earlier races are much more representative of what TS can do.

[letswastemoney]

If Mendelssohn can run as well as he did in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then Catholic Boy must be a decent horse for beating him in the Travers.

Catholic Boy is my Breeders' Cup Classic horse.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If Mendelssohn can run as well as he did in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then Catholic Boy must be a decent horse for beating him in the Travers.

Catholic Boy is my Breeders' Cup Classic horse.

Catholic Boy is a decent horse but when he beat Mendellsohn in the Travers Mendy was at the beginning of an improving form cycle which is designed to have him in top form for the BC Classic and a repeat of his incredible performance in the U.A.E. Derby. His performance in the JCGC was the best if the suicidal pace is considered and he is likely to run even better in the Classic, especially if the pace isn't insane.