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Old 03-26-2018, 07:23 AM   #1
PowerUpPaynter
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UAE Derby

I like the fact that Reride, Gold Town, and Mendelssohn all are in this race. Its usually one horse that looks visually impressive, sometimes running out of the screen but never know how good the horses are he is running against. This is a solid race.
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Old 03-26-2018, 08:06 AM   #2
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Yulong Warrior could be a good one as well. Looking forward to the race as it is one I have had good luck playing in recent years. There are some well bred horses in the mix and perhaps the best chance in years to do some damage in Louisville.
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Old 03-26-2018, 11:17 AM   #3
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Yulong Warrior could be a good one as well. Looking forward to the race as it is one I have had good luck playing in recent years. There are some well bred horses in the mix and perhaps the best chance in years to do some damage in Louisville.
This year's prospective field doesn't look much different from any other given year.

You have the obligatory streaking Godolphin horse that couldn't make a dent in substandard races in Europe but suddenly blossoms at Meydan (Gold Town), the UAE Oaks winner (Rayya), a couple of Japanese starters (Taiki Ferveur and Ruggero), a few second-tier Coolmore runners (Mendelssohn, Seahenge, and Threeandfourpence), and Grade 3-type North American horse (Reride).

We will see what happens this year, but the last 3 years have produced Thunder Snow--a solid Group 1 3yo--who unfortunately refused in the KY Derby, and also Lani and Mubtaahij who at the very least made minor dents in the Triple Crown (which is saying a lot for horses from the UAE Derby). I would say even Epicharis last year rated a chance in a free-for-all race like the Belmont Stakes, but obviously he was physically impaired and did not start.

Perhaps the best UAE Derby was the second running when ex-pats Express Tour and Street Cry dueled it out down the stretch with the Chilean champion and future NA stalwart Lido Palace further behind.

Street Cry, with a world of talent, unfortunately went down with injury (he validated his reputation with some monstrous efforts the following year).

Express Tour did start in the KY Derby. For a horse that was more a miler type, he put in a decent effort. He actually matches Point Given's ill-fated early bid into the teeth of a wicked pace leaving the backstretch, running alongside the favorite as a clear 3rd at the top of the stretch behind the loose Congaree before wilting the rest of the way.
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Old 03-26-2018, 12:11 PM   #4
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Anyone heard if TFUS will be offering PPs for the card?
Can't remember if they did last year or not.
Looks like a long day of racing!
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Old 03-26-2018, 02:04 PM   #5
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This year's prospective field doesn't look much different from any other given year.
Appreciate the added insight. I speak more on the breeding side of things. We have solid Raise A Native horses and strong female families. Several have breeding that approximates what has been winning the Derby the past two decades. I'm certainly not expecting one to win the Derby this year but feel it's the best shot since the UAE began. Likewise with the Apollo or Storm Cat jinx. Strength in numbers but I'm inclined to let them all beat me.
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Old 03-26-2018, 06:25 PM   #6
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Appreciate the added insight. I speak more on the breeding side of things. We have solid Raise A Native horses and strong female families. Several have breeding that approximates what has been winning the Derby the past two decades. I'm certainly not expecting one to win the Derby this year but feel it's the best shot since the UAE began. Likewise with the Apollo or Storm Cat jinx. Strength in numbers but I'm inclined to let them all beat me.
Ah, thanks. Your pedigree angle escaped me. I had read one or two other posts elsewhere speaking about the strength of the field relative to other runnings, which I disagree with.

As far as pedigree goes, some interesting notes on the Japanese runner Taiki Ferveur. Deep in his female family is the dam of the great Alydar and champion Our Mims (5th dam Sweet Tooth). He's also by a son of one of Roberto's best sire sons (Brian's Time).

The UAE Oaks winner Rayya, is by a terrible sire in Tiz Wonderful, but her bottom side features the dam of BC Classic winner and Preakness-placed Concern.

Yulong Warrior's 3rd dam produced Met Mile winner and classic also-ran Wild Rush.
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Old 03-26-2018, 06:52 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
This year's prospective field doesn't look much different from any other given year.

yes...i agree...wait for it.....


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Last edited by boys at tosconova; 03-26-2018 at 06:53 PM.
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:13 AM   #8
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Call me crazy, but I think you could have the horses running here that sweep the Derby Weekend races.

Rayva looks like she would be a great fit in the Oaks against the American 3 year old fillies. Connections already saying she is going to the Baffert barn after Saturday.

I have liked Mendelssohn since he went in the sales ring at Keeneland. This will be a good race to see how handles the dirt and gets a respectable field to compete against. This horse and Aiden O'Brien is who the lads at 4th and Central had in mind when they made an attempt to get Euro horses over here.

Anyone know where to get the past performances for this race?
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Old 03-27-2018, 11:24 AM   #9
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Reride is a baffler. Ships half way around the world when it was a perfect fit to stay where it was and run in the sunland. Will be real tough to ship to dubai and then back for the derby.
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Old 03-27-2018, 12:52 PM   #10
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I have liked Mendelssohn since he went in the sales ring at Keeneland. This will be a good race to see how handles the dirt and gets a respectable field to compete against. This horse and Aiden O'Brien is who the lads at 4th and Central had in mind when they made an attempt to get Euro horses over here.
Perhaps the only thing that Mendelssohn has going for him as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned is that the BC Juvenile Turf, oddly enough, has been quite productive in terms of Derby trail prep races.

Also-rans Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack, Flameaway, and Snapper Sinclair came out of that race and have put up some decent performances this year.

However it should be noted that Juvenile Turf runner-up Untamed Domain was a decided dud in his dirt debut in the Tampa Bay Derby...this coming off the heels of an unimpressive 3yo debut in a graded turf stakes at Gulfstream. The 3rd place horse in the BC was Voting Control, who hasn't breezed since.

Despite the lofty price tag as a yearling ($3 million), Mendelssohn was nowhere near the upper echelon of Coolmore juveniles last year, toiling in his debut and practically easing in his first Group stakes appearance. He was 50-1 when he was a non-threatening 2nd in the Dewhurst behind stablemate US Navy Flag.

While both Mendelssohn and US Navy Flag were cross-entered in the BC Juvenile on the main track, O'Brien wisely tossed the latter in the race as neither horse had much of a chance to win. US Navy Flag, who was already overraced for the year (11 starts as a 2yo), arguably has a better dirt sire in War Front, and with a couple of Group 1 wins under his belt was rather "overqualified" for the BC Juvenile Turf.

O'Brien had had much success in the past with second-tier colts in the Juvenile Turf, taking it down with group-placed Wrote, group-placed George Vancouver, and listed stakes winner Hit It A Bomb. None of those 3 won another race in their careers.

Wrote did make his debut in the UAE Derby on Tapeta and was a modest 3rd behind stablemate Daddy Long Legs. Daddy Long Legs, like Mendelssohn a son of Scat Daddy, went on to the Kentucky Derby and failed to finish the race when eased.

Pedigree-wise, Mendelssohn has as much "dirt" as you might need considering the racing exploits of his siblings (Beholder and Into Mischief). However, what is lacking is the requisite stamina. Both Scat Daddy and Into Mischief excel in siring miler types and moreover, these offspring seem to do their best running on turf...not dirt. I could be wrong, but I believe that the only son of Into Mischief that could be viewed as a viable prospect in the Kentucky Derby (that actually made it to the race) was Golden Cents, who was unplaced at both Churchill and Pimlico, before getting a renewed lease on life when reformed as a one-turn horse.
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Old 03-27-2018, 02:21 PM   #11
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Anyone heard if TFUS will be offering PPs for the card?
Can't remember if they did last year or not.
Looks like a long day of racing!
Yes, go on sale Thursday I believe.
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Old 03-27-2018, 03:35 PM   #12
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Great!
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Old 03-27-2018, 07:37 PM   #13
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Perhaps the only thing that Mendelssohn has going for him as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned is that the BC Juvenile Turf, oddly enough, has been quite productive in terms of Derby trail prep races...
Nice write up. I suspect this horse will be exposed in the UAE. And, even if he does pull it off a victory in the desert then his Storm Cat sire line has a dreaded record in the Derby. One thing he does have going for him in the stamina department is female family 23b. That family has been darn good winning roses (Affirmed, Winning Colors, Lil E Tee, Mine That Bird, and I'll Have Another). Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost is also from this family.

Asmussen's Reride has my curiosity. He gets the services of Javier Castellano. He's a Raise A Native and has Buckpasser-x. He got some flatter when Runaway Ghost took the Sunland. The colt will be my value play.

Yulong Warrior is another one who is a threat to at least blow up the exotics. He is RAN line with Mr. P three deep. Also has Marchetta tail female. The colt also seems to be on the improve and has a win on the surface.

Threeandfourpence might just be the better O'Brien shot here. The horse has four solid dosage points and a distance suggestive 1.43 DI. He's got Buckpasser-x to fuel the stamina. Would not be shocked to see this one fuel exotics payoffs.

Good wagering race.
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:58 PM   #14
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Very funny Boys at Tosconova. You made me laugh out loud.
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Old 03-28-2018, 05:26 PM   #15
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Reride is a baffler. Ships half way around the world when it was a perfect fit to stay where it was and run in the sunland. Will be real tough to ship to dubai and then back for the derby.
read somewhere that the connections enjoyed Dubai so much they wanted to go back
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