NYRA TURF ROUTES

[cj]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

jockey doesn't matter to this board also what happens to them numbers on turf races over 1 mile? I should of been more clear i guess who doesn't want to be forwardly placed in turf sprints. For true turf routes does speed hold up as well? Also how many of them horses had the lead for the whole 4f (the official first call) The race is half over at that point

I said it was from 1 mile through 1 mile and 1/8. Please try to read and understand before responding.

But, fyi, I ran the query for races longer than a mile and an eighth and the trend was the same. The closer to the front the more you win. It was a little more bunched and the sample size was obviously much smaller. I'll post it next time I'm on my PC.

[no breathalyzer]

also just saying sitting 2nd 3rd or 4th gives you over a 39% chance of winning . and that number goes up if you saving the ground.. i'm not saying speed is a bad thing i said THE LEAD IS BAD ..as you are the target.

[no breathalyzer]

Originally Posted by cj

OK, this stuff is just flat out incorrect. Here is every turf race in my database going back to the beginning of 2009. It shows where the winner was after the four furlong (the official first call) for all races on turf at least 8 furlongs in distance and not more than 9 furlongs. These are the vast majority of turf races in North America.

There are 26,143 races that fit. The totals are given in raw numbers and percentage of the total. This is a rough query that doesn't take field size into account. I can do that later on if people are interested, but experience tells me it won't change the general trend. Horses running 1st early win more often than horses running second early. Horses running second early win more than horses running third early, and so on. Horses running last early win way less than should be expected.

first call is when then race is half over now? gotta

[cj]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

first call is when then race is half over now? gotta

That is how it was defined for years and years. It wasn't that long ago that we didn't get a 2f call for routes. I'll run it again tomorrow for 2f. It won't change the result much I'm 99% sure.

[JustRalph]

Great numbers CJ. Very interesting......going to have to dig around in my databases now......you have my interest peaked 👍

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

That will never work.

These people will have nobody to blame because they didn't do the work and lost.

Guys. While you're doing 4 pages of crying. Someone is quietly working and winning the $$$.

OTHERS ARE WINNING THE $$$. You do understand that?

How do I just know you are referring to me old pal? Just in case you are, I think it's time I politely point out that 1 of those "someones" is me.


Carry on now.....

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

You can put in all the work in the world. No amount of work will help when there are 4 confirmed speed horses and 3 of them are taken back. That's insanity and it happens daily. bettors should be protected here like they are in other parts of the world

Well said.


I will add, when I see any combination of Irad, Jose, Manuel, Javier, Jackie Davis, Angel Cruz, I immediately look at other scenarios that will play out and adjust to the games that go on.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

OK, this stuff is just flat out incorrect. Here is every turf race in my database going back to the beginning of 2009. It shows where the winner was after the four furlong (the official first call) for all races on turf at least 8 furlongs in distance and not more than 9 furlongs. These are the vast majority of turf races in North America.

There are 26,143 races that fit. The totals are given in raw numbers and percentage of the total. This is a rough query that doesn't take field size into account. I can do that later on if people are interested, but experience tells me it won't change the general trend. Horses running 1st early win more often than horses running second early. Horses running second early win more than horses running third early, and so on. Horses running last early win way less than should be expected.

This study includes all the horses that won on the front end by crawling and doing exactly what the trainers and riders think is the correct thing to do (which is what everyone is complaining about).

The question to ask is what would happen if they were all out there winging like everyone wants.

I liken it to when jockeys recognize a speed or closer bias on dirt.

If the first few races go wire and wire and/or some longshots hang on really well, the jockeys will frequently recognize it and start getting very aggressive. The track may still be tilted towards speed, but the results will be more fair with the new aggressive riding tactics and faster paces.

If in the first few races a couple of quality speeds die and some deep closers make big looping runs, the jockey's will frequently recognize it and start really backing down the paces. Horses will start wiring at their normal rate again, but only because of the new riding tactics. If they were still out there running average paces fewer horses would wire.

I think the way to look at it is that despite so many incredibly slow paces in turf routes that clearly lead to some extra w2w wins, the w2w% is not particularly high. That's despite it being physically impossible for some of the superior deep closers to win in those races.

No one said you are better off being 10th than 1st given the way these races are developing. Many of the trailing horses are back there because they are bums not because of riding tactics.

I am saying that after decades experience it appears trainers and jockeys have concluded that the right way to ride on many turf courses is back down pace and finish fast.

That's not the way ride turf sprints. So they must recognize that you can gun and set very fast fractions in those abbreviated sprints and wire anyway.

[classhandicapper]

I should add that I'm obviously in no position to know what Chad Brown and other great turf trainers are thinking. I'm simply assuming that if almost everyone in Europe trains and rides that way and many of the best US trainers train that way also, they must know something I don't know.

My job is to recognize what's happening and try to pick winners given what is happening. The paces in NY sometimes get ridiculously slow and lead to an inferior horse wiring, but the overall w2w% is not high.

On that front I've also studied various running style combinations and concluded that not much changes in terms of where the winners are coming from unless my pace projection gets pretty extreme. That's quite different from what I see in dirt routes. So I don't bother altering my bets much based on my pace projections in turf routes anymore. It has to be screaming.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

How do I just know you are referring to me old pal? Just in case you are, I think it's time I politely point out that 1 of those "someones" is me.


Carry on now.....

I'm having a tough time understanding why you are so upset.

[Dahoss9698]

No one is asking for all out speed duels every race. What were asking for is for riders to not rip their mounts faces off trying to rate horses that want to run.

Since when is that wrong?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

No one is asking for all out speed duels every race. What were asking for is for riders to not rip their mounts faces off trying to rate horses that want to run.

Since when is that wrong?

I agree with everyone on that. I have rarely seen fighting a horse that wants to run work out well. Once they start fighting and getting rank the result is usually very bad. You'll never hear me defend a ride like that.

I just don't think all these hall of fame riders and trainers are idiots because they aren't cooperating with my pace projections. I think they believe that getting more aggressive in these turf routes is generally not the way to go. So sometimes they all get caught napping and an inferior horse wires.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree with everyone on that. I have rarely seen fighting a horse that wants to run work out well. Once they start fighting and getting rank the result is usually very bad. You'll never hear me defend a ride like that.

I just don't think all these hall of fame riders and trainers are idiots because they aren't cooperating with my pace projections. I think they believe that getting more aggressive in these turf routes is generally not the way to go. So sometimes they all get caught napping and an inferior horse wires.

I hate seeing my horse strangled back, too. But, I believe Leparoux is leading the country in turf stakes wins and he does it all the time.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

You can put in all the work in the world. No amount of work will help when there are 4 confirmed speed horses and 3 of them are taken back. That's insanity and it happens daily. bettors should be protected here like they are in other parts of the world

The key word to your post is "confirmed". PP's can be a fickle and demanding mistress.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm having a tough time understanding why you are so upset.

I appreciate you being the one who eliminates Vic's excuse of not seeing my post (be replying to it) by having me on a fake ignore