Arkansas Derby

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bisket

He didn’t change leads until the rider took him wide half way through the stretch and tugged on reins and hit him with the whip. I can just a see that working all the time with grade 1 horses….

Have you looked at previous races 2 & 3 back turn-stretch-gallop?

[Sparky13]

Arkansas Derby: Mystic Dan, Muth, Timberlake.

[bisket]

20$ ex box
$2 tri box
$2 super box
.50C super box

[Robert Fischer]

Informed Patriot looks tremendous.

55/1.
Can't see him beating 2&7, but a great exotic add.
I dislike , but at 55/1 I'll use 9 to catch 6

[Robert Fischer]

Good effort from

[zico20]

I just don't learn my lesson, but I have now. In my entire life I have never cashed a ticket with Cox. In fact, this is the first one to run in the money in probably 25 tries. I just can't win with him and will never bet him again. If someone would have told me Timberlake was going to be on the lead I would have never bet the race the way I did. Muth doesn't need the lead to win yet Cox decides to send Timberlake to the front. Oh well if Sierra Leone doesn't run big in the Bluegrass Fierceness will win the Derby for fun. It would have been nice if CD would stop screwing Baffert as a Muth vs Fierceness would have been a great race.

[rastajenk]

The high point of my day was checking my Preakness Futures and seeing I have Muth at 19-1.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by zico20

I just don't learn my lesson, but I have now. In my entire life I have never cashed a ticket with Cox. In fact, this is the first one to run in the money in probably 25 tries. I just can't win with him and will never bet him again. If someone would have told me Timberlake was going to be on the lead I would have never bet the race the way I did. Muth doesn't need the lead to win yet Cox decides to send Timberlake to the front. Oh well if Sierra Leone doesn't run big in the Bluegrass Fierceness will win the Derby for fun. It would have been nice if CD would stop screwing Baffert as a Muth vs Fierceness would have been a great race.

You handicapped well. Don't be too tough on yourself. I thought he'd run much better than that too but yea I'm not real confident in this guy knowing what kind of spacing his horses might need exiting races. The BC race coming off a top 27 days before was asking a lot. I thought his last race did set him up perfectly for this but I was way off on that. Only thing that was fairly clear is that he gets a bit rank early in his races. I personally was ok with him being up there early but only because if he isn't then Bob wins by 100. You played exotics I take it?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

The high point of my day was checking my Preakness Futures and seeing I have Muth at 19-1.

Excellently done.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by MJC922

You handicapped well. Don't be too tough on yourself. I thought he'd run much better than that too but yea I'm not real confident in this guy knowing what kind of spacing his horses might need exiting races. The BC race coming off a top 27 days before was asking a lot. I thought his last race did set him up perfectly for this but I was way off on that. Only thing that was fairly clear is that he gets a bit rank early in his races. I personally was ok with him being up there early but only because if he isn't then Bob wins by 100. You played exotics I take it?

I basically only bet tris, supers, the super high 5 and the very rare win bet. The thing is Timberlake was taken out of his game and then you give your ONLY competition exactly what he craves, someone to run at and the race was over. Baffert I bet was jumping for joy when they hit the backstretch. If I could bet in race when they hit the backstretch I would have put thousands on Muth as there was no way he could lose. My fear was Muth getting lazy and Timberlake catching him near the wire. Liberal Arts had to take up and he was finished. My saver was Just Steel for third behind those two. It wasn't much, just a $20 straight tri but it would have won me money on the race. I gave Timberlake about a 5% chance at running second when they hit the backstretch. Like I said, IN BAFFERT WE TRUST! You always know where his horses are going to be. The Santa Anita Derby is next weekend, it looks like they will get at least six horses!

Finally, I want to apologize to everyone who bet Timberlake, you really had no shot once I bet Cox. That won't ever happen again! Timberlake ran fourth, so he still has never been in the top three. Once Just Steel went by him I quit watching for the most part and thought he ran third.

[bisket]

Timberlake just isn’t a professional yet… Baffert’s winners in this race usually ship in for the Rebel… Lukas is random these days. I don’t think he knows when his runners will be part of the picture …?

[Tee]

IMO if Timberlake can't take control & finish off a race ran in 23:2, 24:0, 24:4, 25:0 & 12:1 he doesn't belong.

As of right now Timberlake is not beating Muth by being in front of him early & damn sure isn't running him down late.

[Spalding No!]

Horrendous decision by Prat on Timberlake yesterday.

The horse usually tugs a little early into the first turn but always settles down the back stretch and puts in a run. It looks like Prat overthought it and decided to take the bull by the horns which basically ensured Timberlake would weaken late.

The good news is despite Cox's best efforts, the horse will have had a hard race leading up to the Derby. Even better he'll be a square price now (unless the race comes up sloppy).

Only need to worry about soundness as he struggled to switch leads then drifted out when winning the Rebel. A new & patient rider would help, too.

Cox won the Derby (sort of) a couple years back with another Into Mischief colt (Mandaloun) coming off a similar profile (sent hard & used up in the LA Derby after a stalking win in the Risen Star).

[f2tornado]

I thought the Lukas place horse ran a great race and had enough closing energy to consider, at what promises to be a decent price, for gimmicks in Louisville. The rest are probably tosses.

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by zico20

Finally, I want to apologize to everyone who bet Timberlake, you really had no shot once I bet Cox.

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Horrendous decision by Prat on Timberlake yesterday.

I went in to this one thinking the humanoid connections were plus factors.......