Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-21-2018, 01:21 PM   #1
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
My response to Andy C re Whales

Responding to this post

We have not argued this point. Perhaps defining terms would help. In my view there are professional players, serious players and recreational players. For the most part people on this forum fall into the serious player category.

If a takeout increase only affected the recreational player then it probably could be done. I doubt that many recreational players could tell you what the takeout rate is or even how the pari-mutuel system works.

You speak from your standpoint and not that of a recreational player. My comments pertained to recreational players at the racetrack. With 30 minutes between races they have little interest in taking a deep dive into the DRF and then the action lasts all of 1-2 minutes. Who could possibly get bored?

Contrast horse betting with sports betting. Everybody has an opinion on the probable outcome of a game. All they need to do is bring their opinions with
them to a sports book. Long losing streaks happen but they are rare because there are only 2 ways to bet, for or against, A or B. With horses it might be 1 through 12. Recreational players lose because it is a hard game.
To suggest that the whales are somehow chasing them away is nonsense.



Let's use your terminology. We have a typical racetrack with $100,000 bet win pool per race. We know breakage exists but I am not accounting for it in this post. The Whales account for about 30% of the money bet, at about break even, but feed nicely off of the the rebates. Then you have the serious players who as a group account for another 30% of the pool at -10% collectively(some are rebated and have a smaller target, some thing they can win but can't win etc, some are typical owners and trainers and fans of the sport who may exceed the public but still lose and some are winning players even without rebate and some are your typical serious player, who talks a good game, but when you look at the end of the year at the final outcome, they do not finish in the black or they need rebates to get them there). Then you have the "recreational players" who account for 40% of the pools. Now the track is going to make it's 16% takeout no matter what, so of that $100,000 bet only $84,000 is going back. The whales will get back $30,000, the serious players will get back $27,000, so that means the recreational players are going to get back $27,000 for their $40,000 bet. As a group they will lose $13,000 on $40,000 bet or 32.5% or over double the takeout.

These are estimates but I am sure they are fairly close to reality. No matter how you fudge the numbers it will not make a huge difference. What is so ridiculous is that racing's future is based off the performance of those that get crushed, the recreational player. These are the ones that racing needs to evolve into serious players in the future. However, they have no chance. They cannot overcome a takeout of that magnitude unless they are exceptional (1 in a 100).

So for the recreational player, it is not that they are worried about whales, they don't even know what a whale is. But when their money disappears at a rate of 30-40%, they certainly feel the effects of what the Whales do. You give them no hope and you give them no desire to even play the game. By the way, whales are not the bad guy here. They are doing what we all want to do. The system/business model is the problem (Rebates and excessive takeout).

Now what if the game was fairly priced at 8% wps(with no rebates). The numbers would look more like this. The whales might bet 20%(less betting opportunities) at +6%, the serious players would be at about -3% with 30% of the pool. The track would give back $92,000 per $100,000 but the whales would get back $21,200, the serious players would bet back $29,100 and thus the recreational player would get $40,700 per $50,000 bet or lose about 18.6%. They are still going to struggle as a group, but the sharpest of that group will evolve into serious players, the sharpest of the serious players will evolve into winning players, pools will get bigger, whales have an endless supply of cash and will just bet more because more is being bet and the game grows. Moreover even the weakest of the recreational players will be a lot more likely to stick around because they are losing at a much slower rate.

In the properly priced game, the recreational player can evolve to the point that he can compete, maybe -0 to -6% roi. He will then up his game, take the game more seriously, look for opportunities at more venues and become a valuable asset to the racing industry. This can and will not happen with the current business model. This would be a fairly frequent occurrence in a properly priced game. The serious player of today would have a fairly good opportunity to evolve into a winning player and those that do will make huge increases in how much they bet. The whales just take advantage of whatever opportunities present themselves. The current model of catering to 25 or so teams of whales at the expense of hundreds of thousands of others is completely backwards. When you rebate whales to the point they can bet every double and exacta and trifecta and superfecta combo to below fair value and make money, everyone else that plays this game suffers over the long run.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 01:55 PM   #2
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
In every house banked game, recreational players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational sports bettors and poker players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational horseplayers in Hong Kong lose a ton and still gamble.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 02:01 PM   #3
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
In every house banked game, recreational players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational sports bettors and poker players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational horseplayers in Hong Kong lose a ton and still gamble.
Yes...but horse racing is a much more disheartening affair to the "losers" than the other gambling forms are. When a poker player loses...he doesn't actually believe that some sinister force separated him from his money.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 02:13 PM   #4
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
In every house banked game, recreational players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational sports bettors and poker players lose a ton and still gamble. Recreational horseplayers in Hong Kong lose a ton and still gamble.
Not even comparable. I can throw darts at a scorecard to determine my bets, bet a $100 a game on 200 games a season, go 100 and 100 and lose $1000(that could easily cover an entire nfl or nba season). I can play online poker for months straight, sit and gos, small tourneys, regular game .25/50 no limit and I would not lose $1000, and I am not a good poker player and if you saw the range of hands I play you would laugh. I consider myself a pretty good horseplayer and on any given weekend I can lose $1000.

We cannot compare ourselves to Hong Kong, different culture, different market.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 02:55 PM   #5
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Not even comparable. I can throw darts at a scorecard to determine my bets, bet a $100 a game on 200 games a season, go 100 and 100 and lose $1000(that could easily cover an entire nfl or nba season). I can play online poker for months straight, sit and gos, small tourneys, regular game .25/50 no limit and I would not lose $1000, and I am not a good poker player and if you saw the range of hands I play you would laugh. I consider myself a pretty good horseplayer and on any given weekend I can lose $1000.

We cannot compare ourselves to Hong Kong, different culture, different market.
If you go to commerce casino tonight, there will be numerous people playing who have lost $20k or more in a year and some who have lost $50k.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:08 PM   #6
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
I think what's really happening is that most people are losing around the track take plus breakage (maybe a little more because they avoid heavy favorites that outperform the track take) and there are a handful of very good and excellent players being subsidized by the truly awful players that bet hopeless horses (usually longshots at 20-1 and higher) that should be a LOT higher.

Those are the only people getting totally killed. If you stay away from the truly dead horses you aren't going to lose too much more than the take plus breakage even if you are throwing darts at the remainder.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:25 PM   #7
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think what's really happening is that most people are losing around the track take plus breakage (maybe a little more because they avoid heavy favorites that outperform the track take) and there are a handful of very good and excellent players being subsidized by the truly awful players that bet hopeless horses (usually longshots at 20-1 and higher) that should be a LOT higher.

Those are the only people getting totally killed. If you stay away from the truly dead horses you aren't going to lose too much more than the take plus breakage even if you are throwing darts at the remainder.
IMO...the majority of the regular horseplayers have gotten destroyed in this game, to the point where they've cut down drastically on their participation...if they haven't stopped playing altogether. Our tracks and OTBs are virtual ghost-towns...and that ain't because the folks are betting from home. If the majority of the horseplayers were only losing the takeout...then there would still be some signs of life at our brick-and-mortar betting outlets. It takes considerable competence in order to lose just the takeout in this game...IMO.
__________________
Live to play another day.

Last edited by thaskalos; 05-21-2018 at 03:27 PM.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:38 PM   #8
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think what's really happening is that most people are losing around the track take plus breakage (maybe a little more because they avoid heavy favorites that outperform the track take) and there are a handful of very good and excellent players being subsidized by the truly awful players that bet hopeless horses (usually longshots at 20-1 and higher) that should be a LOT higher.

Those are the only people getting totally killed. If you stay away from the truly dead horses you aren't going to lose too much more than the take plus breakage even if you are throwing darts at the remainder.
Thaskalos is dead on in his response. The math doesn't work your way. If 30% of the pool(whales) is about break even and 30% of the pool is well above average (the pa types) the other 40% of the money is getting clobbered. Provide me numbers that make what you think is happening possible.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:40 PM   #9
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
IMO...the majority of the regular horseplayers have gotten destroyed in this game, to the point where they've cut down drastically on their participation...if they haven't stopped playing altogether. Our tracks and OTBs are virtual ghost-towns...and that ain't because the folks are betting from home. If the majority of the horseplayers were only losing the takeout...then there would still be some signs of life at our brick-and-mortar betting outlets. It takes considerable competence in order to lose just the takeout in this game...IMO.
I think the OTBs are dying because the older fans are slowly dying off and we probably aren't generating enough new young fans to replace them.

But beyond that I think most fans are losing around take plus breakage plus maybe a point or two.

If they happen to be betting into the exotic pools where the takes are much higher and the chances of going on extended losing streaks are much higher, then some individuals may be getting buried.

I mean, if you are bucking a 24% takeout or higher playing longshots you'll probably go broke and quit long before you hit the lottery payoff.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:48 PM   #10
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I think the OTBs are dying because the older fans are slowly dying off and we probably aren't generating enough new young fans to replace them.

But beyond that I think most fans are losing around take plus breakage plus maybe a point or two.

If they happen to be betting into the exotic pools where the takes are much higher and the chances of going on extended losing streaks are much higher, then some individuals may be getting buried.

I mean, if you are bucking a 24% takeout or higher playing longshots you'll probably go broke and quit long before you hit the lottery payoff.
"PROBABLY?"

You seem to be suggesting that most of the fans are win-bettors...and I seriously doubt that this is the case.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:49 PM   #11
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
If you go to commerce casino tonight, there will be numerous people playing who have lost $20k or more in a year and some who have lost $50k.
How do you know? Are you their accountant? If they lost 20-50k in a year it means one of three things.
1) They have the money to blow and are willing to blow it
2) they are putting themselves and their family at financial risk, aka degenerates or compulsive gamblers
3) they think they are good at the game (and either hit a a bad run or they are overrating their own ability to play the game).


Whatever the case, Poker has given them the confidence to chuck down that kind of money each year whether it is from past results, watching the pros on tv or whatever. I don't see how losing 30 to 40% horse racing is going to make them want to shift their money from the poker tables to horse racing pools, but if they were dealing with proper pricing that may very well be an option for them. Even those that are worth many millions and are willing to bet huge money to get their juices flowing, for the most part want to think they have a chance of winning. They may very well be betting horses to and getting rebated also, but if they are not, they certainly will not consider racing a fair game relative to poker. They may be rich and reckless, but likely are not fools.

Also if you compare the non rebated player who is willing to lose $50,000 at 32.5%(means he bets $153,000+ a year) takeout a year and reduce his takeout to 18.5% (per my example above), he might be willing to up the amount bet to half a million a year (even if he loses significantly more-$92,500 instead of $50,000) because he can afford to and he is getting more bang for the buck. If he is currently rebated, you can argue that he plays currently because he is rebated, but there are plenty of perks that could be given that are not detrimental to the betting pools.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:51 PM   #12
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
Thaskalos is dead on in his response. The math doesn't work your way. If 30% of the pool(whales) is about break even and 30% of the pool is well above average (the pa types) the other 40% of the money is getting clobbered. Provide me numbers that make what you think is happening possible.
I'm adding another category to your list and calling it "truly awful".

Those are people playing hopeless longshots to WPS where they are often wildly overbet. They are playing tough 24% takeout exotics hooking impossible longshots up to each other on tickets that are so unlikely to win they'll be dead before the long run arrives etc..

Those people are getting destroyed.

They may be losing 50% or more on everything they bet because they are playing the worst return bets at the track and chasing dreams on a lot of very low probability tickets. It's kind of like me playing the lotto. I am losing more than the expected take on lotto for the simple reason I'm not going to live long enough to hit it and get myself back to the expected long term loss.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-21-2018 at 03:57 PM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 03:57 PM   #13
Poindexter
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm adding another category to your list and calling it "truly awful".

Those are people playing hopeless longshots to WPS where they are often wildly overbet. They are playing tough 24% takeout exotics hooking impossible longshots up to each other on tickets that are so unlikely to win they'll be dead before the long run arrives etc..

Those people are getting destroyed.

They may be losing 50% or more on everything they bet because they are playing the worst return bets at the track and chasing dreams on a lot of very low probability tickets. It's kind of like me playing the lotto. I am losing more than the expected take on lotto for the simple reason I'm not going to live long enough to hit it and get back to the expected loss.
I get what you are saying. In the 40% range of recreational players there is a range. On the high end you have those that are hovering around takeout + breakage (top 25% or so) and on the low end you might have the clueless that are losing 50% plus breakage (maybe the bottom 20% of this group). Obviously the rest of the group will fall somewhere in between. That makes total sense.
Poindexter is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 04:05 PM   #14
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
To me...the only way by which the "average" horseplayer can keep from getting destroyed in this game is by either keeping his bets at the "insignificant" level...or by playing the game infrequently. The average horseplayer lacks the desire(ability?) to gain the proficiency needed in order to keep the costs of regular participation in this game to an acceptable level. Without exception...every regular horseplayer that I know has his own horror story to tell...and I've got a few horror stories of my own.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-21-2018, 04:05 PM   #15
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
I get what you are saying. In the 40% range of recreational players there is a range. On the high end you have those that are hovering around takeout + breakage (top 25% or so) and on the low end you might have the clueless that are losing 50% plus breakage (maybe the bottom 20% of this group). Obviously the rest of the group will fall somewhere in between. That makes total sense.
Yeah, we agree. I just used to spend a lot of time in NYCOTB. I knew a lot the awful types. :-)
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:41 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.