Ability-X Ratings AQU Friday 3/12/10 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jonnielu · 03-12-2010, 09:57 AM

A couple of "Simple" picks made it yesterday. 1st and 9th. Here is an idea for those chasing the pick4. If the favorite is not the Ability-X "Key" or "Simple" pick, add it to those two for the 3X3X3X3 Pick4. If the favorite is the "Simple" or "Key", add the 2nd choice. If the "Simple" and "Key" are the fav and 2nd choice, go with those 2, - 2X3X3X3.

jdl

jonnielu · 03-12-2010, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

A couple of "Simple" picks made it yesterday. 1st and 9th. Here is an idea for those chasing the pick4. If the favorite is not the Ability-X "Key" or "Simple" pick, add it to those two for the 3X3X3X3 Pick4. If the favorite is the "Simple" or "Key", add the 2nd choice. If the "Simple" and "Key" are the fav and 2nd choice, go with those 2, - 2X3X3X3.

jdl

2 Key winners

5 Kissa Melissa Dominguez Ramon A. 123 4.70 2.40 2.10

4 Haitian Sensation Cohen David 120 7.90 4.80 3.20

1 simple pick/key win/exacta

6 Confidence Crisis Carmouche Kendrick 122 25.00 9.10 9.20
4 Lion Attack Napravnik A. R. 118 4.80 8.10

$2 Exacta $96.00 6-4

The above Pk4 strategy - $2 Pick 4 $537.00 1-4-6-2

jdl

Saratoga_Mike · 03-12-2010, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

2 Key winners

5 Kissa Melissa Dominguez Ramon A. 123 4.70 2.40 2.10

4 Haitian Sensation Cohen David 120 7.90 4.80 3.20

1 simple pick/key win/exacta

6 Confidence Crisis Carmouche Kendrick 122 25.00 9.10 9.20
4 Lion Attack Napravnik A. R. 118 4.80 8.10

$2 Exacta $96.00 6-4

The above Pk4 strategy - $2 Pick 4 $537.00 1-4-6-2

jdl

JDL,

I had to take you off ignore to see your system. It still isn't clear to me, but that's okay. One simple question: if you truly believe in your system, why would you share it with others? It's pari-mutuel racing, not betting-against-the-track racing. The betting pools are dominated by us Beyer idiots, so you should kill it almost every day. So why share this information with the public?

jonnielu · 03-13-2010, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

JDL,

I had to take you off ignore to see your system. It still isn't clear to me, but that's okay. One simple question: if you truly believe in your system, why would you share it with others? It's pari-mutuel racing, not betting-against-the-track racing. The betting pools are dominated by us Beyer idiots, so you should kill it almost every day. So why share this information with the public?

The short answer is that it has been a goal of mine for the last 25 years to publish something that can enable the average person to play the game. The game needs it, and people need it. I believe that the game could grow beyond reasonable expectations if more people understood just a few truths of horse racing.

Between the key and the simple, which one would you play? Or would you have won one or two of the other 6 races by noticing that this or that key doesn't have a shot, and this is the wrong simple pick, or would you play them all?

On Wednesday, 2 chalky keys won, 1 simple pick for $42.00, and Andy Serling came up with a $15.00 winner, how many differing perspectives could be served well by those results? At least several.

I believe that as long as there are people, nothing will be seen from a single perspective. But, that doesn't mean that there can't be more winners.

Why couldn't we have a world where 100,000 "I don't want to learn how to handicap" idiots played "Simple" picks and/or "Keys" all day, and the Beyer idiots could get 9/5 more often, while the whole bunch are staying even or ahead $10.40. I don't see any reason that we can't.

There certainly is enough room in the grandstand these days for a wide spectrum of perspectives. I like "inclusive" much more then "exclusive".

jdl

PaceAdvantage · 03-13-2010, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Why couldn't we have a world where 100,000 "I don't want to learn how to handicap" idiots played "Simple" picks and/or "Keys" all day, and the Beyer idiots could get 9/5 more often, while the whole bunch are staying even or ahead $10.40. I don't see any reason that we can't.

Because soon enough, you'll be the "Ability-X Idiots" getting 9/5 more often...that's why....

jonnielu · 03-13-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Because soon enough, you'll be the "Ability-X Idiots" getting 9/5 more often...that's why....

Sounds like you've got it all figured out, your crystal ball must be in a high state of tune.

jdl

turfnsport · 03-13-2010, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Here is an idea for those chasing the pick4. If the favorite is not the Ability-X "Key" or "Simple" pick, add it to those two for the 3X3X3X3 Pick4.

I'm not sure which of your ideas are dumber here...adding the favorite simply because it is not included in one of those mystery numbers of yours, or playing a 3x3x3x3 Pick 4.

Tom · 03-13-2010, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Sounds like you've got it all figured out, your crystal ball must be in a high state of tune.

jdl

You cannot address the point that was presented?

pktruckdriver · 03-13-2010, 04:27 PM

WHERE DO I SIGN UP?

PaceAdvantage · 03-13-2010, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

WHERE DO I SIGN UP?

Classic.

PaceAdvantage · 03-13-2010, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Sounds like you've got it all figured out, your crystal ball must be in a high state of tune.

jdl

You completely missed my point?

jonnielu · 03-14-2010, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You completely missed my point?

I think that I get your point, I just don't agree that it is a realistic expectation that a huge multitude will be betting the same horse. Also, you seem to be looking at my ratings as if they are a selection service, they are not.

The two picks that you see are made mechanically, or by formula, if you like. I do not expect the majority of people to just follow them blindly, although it can be done.

The high percentage of people that are playing every other game besides ours, is doing so because they do not want to handicap and they do not want to think. They aren't interested in our game and there is no way that they will become interested as long as the industry is telling them that they will have to buy a stack of material and study their asses off for 10 years before they could expect to understand what is going on.

I'll write more after I get Aqueduct posted, who knows maybe today will be the day that it all falls apart.

P.S. Do you think Patrick noticed that the only $75.00 winner at SA yesterday was the only animule coming into the race with a 319 Ability-X rating? He should still remember that the official Par is 320, or the same number that the $129 winner at AQU was carrying into the 9th last Saturday.

jdl

WinterTriangle · 03-14-2010, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

JDL,

if you truly believe in your system, why would you share it with others?

There are a ton of others on this board who also do this.

Why single out Jonnie?

I love the ones where you can beat the favorite with........6 other runners.

Saratoga_Mike · 03-14-2010, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

There are a ton of others on this board who also do this.
Why single out Jonnie?

I love the ones where you can beat the favorite with........6 other runners.

I assume you're referring to those who sell pace and speed fig-related products. Here's the difference: those products are in the mainstream, so a slightly naucned approach is unlikely to have much of an impact on the betting pools. But in the case of JDL's system, it appears to me that few if any posters (a large sample size, imo) use it. Therefore, if it's as powerful as he claims, he should guard its secrecy, imo.

But you might ask, well why did Beyer write multiple books on his methods and publish his speed figures in the first place? I think there are several answers. First, ego (an ok reason, imo). Second, he writes really well, which tells me he thoroughly enjoys writing. Third, by cutting the deal with the DRF back in the 90s, I suspect he now has a predictable, recurring revenue stream, not subject to the vagaries of gambling. Finally, I believe the concept of speed figures predated Beyer, but others may want to comment on that matter.

As for other systems being hawked, if they worked, people probably shouldn't be trying to sell them (especially "systems"). To sell tools like speed figs is a little different in my mind than selling a systematic approach. If you're selling a handicapping tool, each user may end up a on different horse. In the case of a system, I'd assume most of the users end up on the same horse.