"I'm disappointed with the trip", Brown said

[classhandicapper]

This is the flip side of what happens when the jockeys aren't aggressive enough and grab instead.

In a battle up front, the faster and higher quality speed usually puts away the inferior one and often causes the inferior one to blow finishing positions. Going with him made it more likely he would blow a position (which he did) and possibly get Justify beat also, but IMO, it was no more likely he would beat him.

Had Ortiz pulled back off him, there's no way he would have beaten him either, but he would have finished second.

You are damned if you do and damned if you don't.

The only way Good Magic was going to beat Justify was if Ortiz stayed within a length without using his horse and then just hoped Justify was sub par or his own horse moved forward enough to do so.

Dueling is almost never the right answer for anyone, but especially not the 2nd or 3rd best horse trying to take on the best horse.

[pandy]

I finally saw the Jose Ortiz interview with Scott Hazelton that appeared live on TVG yesterday. TVG just showed it. Jose explained the trip very well, he said that he wanted to let Justify go, and get the stalking trip, but, he said that Justify wasn't going fast enough and Mike Smith wasn't going to push him to the lead. So, basically, he said he had no choice, and that it would have been different if he had drawn inside of Justify.

He explained it perfectly and emphasized several times that in that situation, his horse was going easy and felt good. We have to realize that in order to let Justify cross over to the rail, he would have had to take a stern hold on his horse and if you think he got criticized for this ride, imagine if he takes a choke hold of Good Magic and strangles him back. He actually said that he started to take a hold but the pace just wasn't fast enough.

Anyway, it was a very good interview to watch and listen to the way Jose explained it.

[Spalding No!]

He explained it perfectly and emphasized several times that in that situation, his horse was going easy and felt good. We have to realize that in order to let Justify cross over to the rail, he would have had to take a stern hold on his horse and if you think he got criticized for this ride, imagine if he takes a choke hold of Good Magic and strangles him back. He actually said that he started to take a hold but the pace just wasn't fast enough.

But the pace was fast and Bravazo, who broke sharply and ranged up on Justify's outside in the first several yards, was taken a hold of through the first turn and had no trouble settling nicely into a stalking position.

Ortiz certainly had a tougher job than Saez on Bravazo to get his mount to settle from the inside, and Quip--who also was up close briefly and elected to take back--may have sealed his fate by opening up the inside completely. However, it wasn't a crush of horses into the first turn as it was in the Derby, and conceivably he could have taken a sharp hold and flanked Bravazo down the backstretch instead locking horns with Justify on the front end.

From there, if his other races are any indication, I think Good Magic would have more of a rally on the far turn than either Bravazo or Tenfold, who were left in the dust and only rallied in mid stretch when Justify (and Good Magic) began to tire.

Of course, Justify--if Smith had been able to slow down the pace (not necessarily a given)--probably would have had more in reserve and we might have got a carbon copy of the final quarter of the Kentucky Derby. But at least Good Magic would have taken his shot at the appropriate point in the race (about a 1/4 mile out) and not tried some herculean effort from first turn onwards.

I would go even further and suggest that had Good Magic worked out the appropriate trip and still come up a bit short in the Preakness, there would be at least a sliver of a chance that Chad Brown would change his mind and try the Belmont. Now, after that gut busting effort, there is no chance of that.

[classhandicapper]

It's questionable how fast that pace was.

Bravazo is not some spectacular speed horse and he was within 1-3 lengths for most of the early part of the race. That's exactly where you'd expect him to be relative to a horse like Justify if the pace was mildly fast and he was forwardly placed behind the lead.

I strongly suspect that between the track being kind to speed and the pace not being exceptionally fast, the battle up front was only a mild issue for the top two. Maybe it took 2-3 lengths out of each of them.

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It's questionable how fast that pace was.

Bravazo is not some spectacular speed horse and he was within 1-3 lengths for most of the early part of the race. That's exactly where you'd expect him to be relative to a horse like Justify if the pace was mildly fast and he was forwardly placed behind the lead.

I strongly suspect that between the track being kind to speed and the pace not being exceptionally fast, the battle up front was only a mild issue for the top two. Maybe it took 2-3 lengths out of each of them.

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at the front end of both his Alw win and the Risen Star? I dont think he is a midpack horse by any means. He was 3 lengths off it, I bet that matches up with his paces in those earlier races.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont have the PP's up but didnt Bravazo race at the front end of both his Alw win and the Risen Star? I dont think he is a midpack horse by any means. He was 3 lengths off it, I bet that matches up with his paces in those earlier races.

He's never been on the lead, but he's stalked in 2nd and has been a close 3rd a few times depending on the field and pace. He's not a front runner or speed horse by any means. That's why I say if the pace was actually really hot, he wouldn't have been 1.5, 2, and then 3 lengths behind at the first 3 calls. They would have opened up on him. He took a position that seems very logical given his style and that Justify is a faster speed horse. The pace was probably mildly fast.

[thaskalos]

To me, the crucial point was that Good Magic had to be taken away from his customary style of running in order to keep Justify from enjoying an uncontested lead. What prior indication had Good Magic given to suggest that a push to a contested pace against a superior horse would enhance GM's chances of winning the race? IMO...it's wrong to relegate the second-best horse in the race to the role of a "rabbit", against an obviously superior horse.

[GMB@BP]

I wasnt sure if it was jockey speak at the time but this is pretty interesting about Justify's trip, and how he was ridden at the end.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl..._Preakness_123

hard to quantify either way, but interesting none the less.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

To me, the crucial point was that Good Magic had to be taken away from his customary style of running in order to keep Justify from enjoying an uncontested lead. What prior indication had Good Magic given to suggest that a push to a contested pace against a superior horse would enhance GM's chances of winning the race? IMO...it's wrong to relegate the second-best horse in the race to the role of a "rabbit", against an obviously superior horse.

it's much more than wrong. it's flat out stupid. you take your chances in the lane. everyone just assumes justy would romp, but yon't know that. a very compromising trip at center stage for everyone to see no less

arguing the lead in pinned against very mucky rail as a strat line which was never taken before. you expect this kind of chit from a po-dunk jock or a horse in a 5k claimer

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Ortiz was pretty much in a no win situation.

Ortiz, after the KY Derby, and before GM was even committed to the Preakness:

"Justify is the toughest opponent we faced by far. He can win on the lead or he can win sitting just off the lead as he did when Promises Fulfilled set a hot pace in the Derby. My hope is that we will break well and that someone else will want to go with Justify. That would definitely make my job easier.

The one thing I cannot afford is for Justify to get loose on the lead. Good Magic is very responsive to me. If I have to ask him for speed early, he will have no problem with that. If I have to turn the Preakness into a match race, I will turn it into a match race. If Justify is going to win again, I am going to make sure he earns it."

It sounds to me like Ortiz understood the situation. He knew Justify "could win" on the lead or sitting just off the lead, and he also knew that he couldn't let Justify get loose on the lead.

Not being in the saddle myself, he does seem to have grasped the dilemma he was going to face.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Ortiz, after the KY Derby, and before GM was even committed to the Preakness:

"Justify is the toughest opponent we faced by far. He can win on the lead or he can win sitting just off the lead as he did when Promises Fulfilled set a hot pace in the Derby. My hope is that we will break well and that someone else will want to go with Justify. That would definitely make my job easier.

The one thing I cannot afford is for Justify to get loose on the lead. Good Magic is very responsive to me. If I have to ask him for speed early, he will have no problem with that. If I have to turn the Preakness into a match race, I will turn it into a match race. If Justify is going to win again, I am going to make sure he earns it."

It sounds to me like Ortiz understood the situation. He knew Justify "could win" on the lead or sitting just off the lead, and he also knew that he couldn't let Justify get loose on the lead.

Not being in the saddle myself, he does seem to have grasped the dilemma he was going to face.

...and spells out in black-and-white how Ortiz had no intention of riding Good Magic to win, but rather rode to make sure Justify "earned" his victory. Again, pure folly and actually the complete opposite of "sportsmanship".

Ortiz would have been great on Forty Niner in the 1988 Preakness.

Did Chad Brown see these quotes before the race?

[Robert Fischer]

I can't fault the ride, but I guess he should have gone really slow into the first turn and try to force Mike to either open up so he could switch out, or REALLY slow the pace to a crawl.

That's kind of asking for a 'great' ride in retrospect, as opposed to being really fair about how the race developed. That's something, where if Ortiz ever finds himself in that position again, to be prepared 'in case' shit happens again.

• He broke to the front
• Mike played chess with a 1200 tractor trailor
• The pace itself was within Good Magic's capability, but not if you include that Justify is going to win 8/10 'match-races' and is going to bump him off his stride as they enter the far turn

That bump is more what I think about when I think about when you talk about being pressed into the fence. Some horses don't want to be 'pinned on the rail' but GM is classy and professional. You also save a length of ground. But when Justify hits you like a solid rock right before you're asked the question, it's no contest. Already going to lose by a length or so in a stretch drive from pure difference of ability, and then you lose another length because Mike Smith is a champion and going to tax you for riding along with him. GM only lost by about 1.25 Lengths.

You can't be in that inside position neck&neck unless you have more horse, or you plan on hitting first and trying to herd. That would have been ugly. Maybe Justify gets put up if he had been herded, -but maybe Tenfold or Bravazo would have won then. We go from a Triple Crown Belmont to Bravazo vs Audible...

These guys are used to dominating and having fair trips, and then they face a horse like Justify and a HOFer on a good run like Mike, and there's no room for error. Situations have to be worked through.

"Now, If you break on top, slow the pace to a crawl and start moving out wide Jose".

Maybe that's what Brown said to Jose? Or maybe he left it up to the rider, and they both learned a lesson.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

...and spells out in black-and-white how Ortiz had no intention of riding Good Magic to win

I left out the part where he said "we are going to win this".

I'll save my criticism for all the connections who ran in the Derby and other ones who didn't show up for this race. Most of them didn't think they could beat Justify so they just threw in the towel and didn't bother.

My opinion is that Ortiz went in wanting to win this. I think he would have been criticized no matter what he did, because winning against Justify is obviously a tall order...beating Mike Smith is a 2nd tall order.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by clicknow

...beating Mike Smith is a 2nd tall order.

Smith usually beats himself, which is why Ortiz should have let the chips fall where they may instead of forcing Smith to just ride the race straight without any gimmicks or bold maneuvers.

[NY BRED]

regardless of trainers, jockey position from gate to finish and trainer comparison, here is my simple take:

Check out the pedigree on Justify; any doubts about stamina, speed ,
ability to run on any dirt surface, or for that matter turf are incredible;

Sure, you can probably make a case for some of his opponents, and cite the difficulty winning the Triple Crown, especially witnessing this scenario in two straight years with the same trainer.

Whatever the response, one incredible fact remains; Justify never raced as a two year old, and if he does win this last leg, trainers may follow this training pattern for their top yearlings.


Lots of karma for #2 for both trainer and horse; if Justify draws post 2,
this dream becomes (hopefully) reality!