i love Justify, but he is a big time bet against on Belmont day

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Just takes a hint of memory, most of the details come from Equibase.

Thanks for posting it - good memories.
But you just depressed the hell out me when i look at the PPs today!

[sammy the sage]

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Also, anybody pay attention to the post-race pony girl shot with Mike Smith right after the finish?

Don't think I've ever heard a horse breathing that hard after a race on TV...Justify was totally spent after this race, IMO...

I thought that was Mike smith breathing...on the outrider

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???

Maybe not, he ran his eyeballs out yesterday. That was a gutsy performance, the second one in a row but this was even harder. The three week turn around and increased distance vs. fresh horses is going to be the true "TEST".

If this horse pulls it off, he's a great horse and Baffert should be president. That was the kind of race most would have lost. The recovery is everything now.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by porchy44

Horses that won both Derby and Preakness only since 2000

All trainers who have on multiple occasions won both (KY) Derby and Preakness with the same horse:


Bob Baffert - 5 times

Ben Jones - 2 times

Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons - 2 times

Max Hirsch - 2 times

Henry Forrest - 2 times



(Number of individuals during the past 72 years who did so and immediately realized it: one)

A name who probably should be in this club, but isn't, is H.A. "Jimmy" Jones.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Thomas Roulston

Instilled Regard all the way in the Belmont - provided that it's a dry track.

Instilled Regard has been taken out of training per the DRF.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

Justify didn't have much of a wide trip relatively speaking with just one horse to his inside and, tactically speaking, speed horses want to be outside the other speed.

It is more than a length, probably lengths.



Look, a bet against I can see, he'll be less than even money. I do still say he's something special and i don't think these off tracks are his ultimate space. Probably the Apollo jinx will be more in effect winning the three than just the Derby. The list posted earlier of the many who won the first two and spit the bit says alot.

I wouldn't ever consider running in the 2 path as going wide.

It's also advantageous going against one other horse to be outside. Horses don't prefer being hemmed in between the rail and another horse.

[classhandicapper]

The more I think about Justify's performance in the Preakness the more it reminds me of American Pharoah's Travers.

Both got pressured by another very good horse almost all the way and it took something out of them late.

IMO, the difference is that AP's Travers was at 10F on a somewhat tiring track at Saratoga that made his duel more problematical. AP was on the rail path on the turn and into the stretch (the inferior path that day). AP's final time was superior to Justify's by several lengths. PIM was speed favoring yesterday and that helped Justify hang on in slower time.

I think Justify is a very very good horse, but the Derby and Preakness did nothing to alleviate my fears about him getting 12 furlongs. In both instances he was dragged into the heated action up front. He was good enough to overcome it both times, but 12F is a different ball game.

Bravazo has been more of a 2nd or 3rd string horse in this crop and he almost got him at 9.5 furlongs. IMO, Justify is definitely vulnerable against fresher and better horses going 12 furlongs if he takes any pressure at all. He's almost certain to be a huge underlay.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

The pace was 140 Timeform, that is fast at that distance. It felt controlled probably to him after that Derby.

If you believe that fig is accurate. I find it questionable.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.

Being a specimen is only important in beauty contests.

At this point, Smarty Jones was the better racehorse.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

1991: In 73 days, Farma Way won an allowance, the Grade 2 San Carlos (7f), the Grade 2 San Pasqual (8.5f), the Grade 2 San Antonio (9f), and the Grade 1 Big Cap (10f) in succession.

1990: In 84 days, Criminal Type won the Pimlico Special, the Met Mile, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney (all Grade 1) in succession. Earlier in the year, in 77 days, he won 2 allowances, the San Pasqual, the San Antonio, and ran 2nd in the Big Cap.

1996: In 70 days, Alphabet Soup won the Pat O’Brien (G3), ran 2nd in the Del Mar BC (G2), won the Goodwood (G2, DQ’d), and won the BC Classic (G1).

1997-98: In roughly 90 days, Silver Charm ran 2nd in the Malibu (G1), won the San Fernando (G2), won the Strub (G2), and won the Dubai World Cup. At 3, in 98 days, he won the San Vicente, placed in the San Felipe and SA Derby, won the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

1992: In 82 days, Best Pal won the San Fernando (G2), the Strub (G1), the Big Cap (G1), and the Oaklawn Handicap (G1).

1997: In roughly 90 days, Formal Gold won the Brooklyn, placed in the Suburban and Whitney, won the Iselin, and won the Woodward. Also won his first 4 starts (maiden, 3 allowances) and ran 2nd in the Pennsylvania Derby in about 80 days.

1998: In 120 days, Skip Away won the Pimlico Special, the Mass Cap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Iselin, and the Woodward.

2016: In 81 days, Arrogate won a maiden, 2 allowances, and the Travers.

1995: In 103 days, Thunder Gulch won the Derby, placed in the Preakness, won the Belmont, won the Swaps, and won the Travers.

1999: In 82 days, Silverbulletday won the Davona Dale, the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Ashland, the Kentucky Oaks, and the Black Eyed Susan.

2008: In 103 days, Rachel Alexandra won the Fair Grounds Oaks, the Fantasy, the Kentucky Oaks, the Preakness, and the Mother Goose.

1998: In 89 days, Awesome Again won the Whitney, the Saratoga BC, the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and the BC Classic.

2005: In 96 days, Afleet Alex won the Mountain Valley, ran 6th in the Rebel, won the Arkansas Derby, ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, won the Belmont.

2004: In 77 days, Smarty Jones won the Southwest, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, the Kentucky Derby, and the Preakness.

2007: In 106 days, Curlin won a maiden, the Rebel, the Arkansas Derby, placed in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Preakness.

In a span of 43 days, Calumet’s Whirlaway raced in the Bluegrass, Derby Trial, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, an Allowance race and the Belmont Stakes. In between the Bluegrass and the Derby Trial, he worked 10 fl in 2:07.2.5! Back then, the Preakness ran one week later. Today’s horse would lose by default because they couldn’t keep up w/the schedule. Horse ran 16 times as a two-year-old.

Different time, different type . . .

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Going to need a rabbit to beat Justify...who's going to sacrifice???

I'm not so sure it's going to a rabbit so much as it's going to take several horses to hound him and make a bid at different stages of the race.

If you watch AP's Belmont, he was loose the whole way, but Materiality took a crack at him, then Mubtaajij took a crack at him, and then Frosted took a crack at him. Each time one of those horses tried to come to him, he was fast enough and had enough stamina to repulse it.

It will take something like that or what they did to Smarty Jones and I think this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not so sure it's going to a rabbit so much as it's going to take several horses to hound him and make a bid at different stages of the race.

If you watch AP's Belmont, he was loose the whole way, but Materiality took a crack at him, them Mubtaajij took a crack at him, and then Frosted took a crack at him. Each time one of those horses tried to come to him, he repulsed it.

It will take something like that or what they did to Smarty Jones and I think this horse is going to have a rough time going 12 furlongs if there are legitimate 12F horses in the race.

There are no legitimate 12 fl horses nor legit 10 fl horses; one of the reasons why he wasn't passed in the Kentucky and the Preakness - none of the horses are bred to go that long.

If he gets out front in the Belmont w/a moderate pace, he has a shot at it.

[thaskalos]

It's one thing to say that an undefeated horse vying for the last leg of the Triple Crown isn't worth a bet because of its expected underlaid price...but to say that the horse will get DEFEATED in the Belmont, without knowing the level of competition awaiting in the wings, is a little premature, IMO. Yes, Justify was exhausted after the Preakness...but I've seen undefeated horses follow up narrow victories, where they were "almost beaten"...with impressive triumphs, where they left no doubt about their superiority within the group.

I am willing to give Justify his well-deserved benefit of the doubt...and my mind about his eventual defeat will be made up at a later date, when a little more is known about his post-race condition...and his upcoming competition.

[depalma113]

Only 4 horses lined up to face him so far.

Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy.

If that's the field, he isn't losing unless he falls down.