Pennsylvania Derby

[menifee]

Timeline is intriguing here. Inside speed holds on big days - he has to send. West Coast - is the logical winner, but for some reason I have this nagging feeling that he is not as good as that Travers made him look. Irap has developed nicely too. I thought his Travers was better than it looks on paper.

I’ll bet Timeline and use with Irap and WC.

[TheGarMan]

Originally Posted by menifee

Timeline is intriguing here. Inside speed holds on big days - he has to send. West Coast - is the logical winner, but for some reason I have this nagging feeling that he is not as good as that Travers made him look. Irap has developed nicely too. I thought his Travers was better than it looks on paper.

I’ll bet Timeline and use with Irap and WC.

I am with you... I think West Coast is the class, but something tells me today might be the day for Timeline. I'll be watching the rail in earlier races for sure..

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by TheGarMan

I am with you... I think West Coast is the class, but something tells me today might be the day for Timeline. I'll be watching the rail in earlier races for sure..

My final rankings, for better or worse. I'll wait to see final odds before I decide on bet structure, but Timeline will be in there somewhere, even for a small W/P bet. Good luck to everyone!

WEST COAST
IRAP
TIMELINE
IRISH WAR CRY
GIUSEPPE THE GREAT


Mule

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm taking Irap at 3-1 or better. He broke from outside and went 4 wide in both turns on a day I thought the rail was pretty good. West Coast lifetime topped out on that rail. I think he can still win but at miserly odds. Should be a pretty interesting race!

[classhandicapper]

I think Irap ran deceptively well losing a TON of ground chasing West Coast up close on a day I would have preferred to save some ground.

I also think the Haskell kind of collapsed on a day I made MTH more of an outside closer track. So I think Timeline and Irish War Cry are probably a little better than they look off their last races even though they were off the rail (unlike Battle of Midway who had the worst of both worlds and got off badly too).

The problem with insights like these is that even if I am correct, none of them may be better than West Coast who seems to be another Baffert horse making significant progress.

I definitely think the gap between Irap and West Coast is less than it looks off the Travers in isolation, but I'm still not sure what to do with that information unless the prices shock me.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I think Guiseppe the Great is a fine horse, but why put him in this race? I think Zito's ego gets in the way to the horses detriment

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Tom

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

Graded stakes and cheese steaks. Irresistible combo!

[Road Kill]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I think Guiseppe the Great is a fine horse, but why put him in this race? I think Zito's ego gets in the way to the horses detriment

So Term of Art has some company coming across the finish line. 🤷🏼*♀️

[Robert Fischer]

West Coast is good, probably a slight underlay. Last time was the time. I feel he has a slightly less chance than he did before the Travers, and I'm guessing he'll be a third of the price.

Timeline certainly has potential. The Haskell kind of fell apart late, but there are a lot of unknowns and 'hopes' with this guy, even if they are high hopes. Boom, bust, or anywhere in between.

Against Irap here. He got a great setup in the Travers. He's the fun, 'now' horse. 3-1 ml... I'll be surprised if he finishes in the top three today.

Outplay and Game Over may inject value into a ticket.
Outplay is a lower-tier stakes contender on his day.

Game Over has the other trainer besides West Coast's trainer, who has flaunted a big edge, and he's 15-1 ml. A bit of a cheaper animal than others, but Carmouche could take the initiative, and that stamina edge combined with a good cruising position could certainly lead to a board spot.


No play for me. Will be watching.

[Quesmark]

3/25- Steve Assmussen Al Graziani & Joe Russell (KY) OP 1:10.4
5/14- Ron Moquett CD 1:21.4
6/24- Jeffrey Radosevich TDN Ohio Derby big middle move vs Irap,Girvin
8/5- Jorge Navarro MNR 2nd WVa Derby
New owners Loooch Racing Stable
Mineshaft/Kaweah Princess (17sts 5w-6p-1s $214,645)

Jorge Navarro is Game Over's 4th trainer,and he has new owners too for the Pa Derby,breeding is solid,won 1st out at OP drawing off by 4 in a solid time & followed that up with a sizzling 7 F win,on the stretch out in Ohio he made a big middle move vs Irap,and came back with a 2nd in the WV Derby.GO's lightly raced,working up a storm and can sit a stalking trip behind the speed,might surprise...

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think Irap ran deceptively well losing a TON of ground chasing West Coast up close on a day I would have preferred to save some ground.

I also think the Haskell kind of collapsed on a day I made MTH more of an outside closer track. So I think Timeline and Irish War Cry are probably a little better than they look off their last races even though they were off the rail (unlike Battle of Midway who had the worst of both worlds and got off badly too).

The problem with insights like these is that even if I am correct, none of them may be better than West Coast who seems to be another Baffert horse making significant progress.

I definitely think the gap between Irap and West Coast is less than it looks off the Travers in isolation, but I'm still not sure what to do with that information unless the prices shock me.

So, have you narrowed this down any more with the current odds?

[jimmyb]

What is Drug O'neill up to with the 9, Term of Art. Why is he here?

[cj]

Originally Posted by jimmyb

What is Drug O'neill up to with the 9, Term of Art. Why is he here?

Gotta be the owners, no? He's been doing this for a year with the horse.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Tom

He's there for the cheesesteaks.

And now he can buy $110,000 worth!

[SharpCat]

West Coast looked much the best on paper and ran to it. Not sure what there plans are for this year but looks to be a hell of a 4yo if he stays in training.