A Note About Mendelssohn That Deserves Its Own Thread

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

More significant is his trainer being 1-for-54 lifetime in American graded stakes on dirt.

Guess we'd need some kinda molecular gauge to measure the difference between that trend and the 0-for-51's.



Plenty of folks will be wagering the storm cats and the apollos, etc. and I see very little difference between all of these *trends*. Trainer angles aren't high on my list since good horses take many trrainers to the derby, not the other way around.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by clicknow

good horses take many trainers to the derby, not the other way around.

OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

Who? The Mayor of Belmont?

[Robert Fischer]

'video game Mendelssohn'

paints him somewhat like an American Pharaoh... He can run for the lead, relax from hoof-to-ear and cruise along, bound into the far turn and show a big response to tackle leaders/draw off.

Is he the 128 TimeformUS/106 Beyer UAE Derby?

Or the 110 TimeformUS/86 Beyer BCJUVTURF?

Can he get near a Kentucky Derby pace, and chill like he can against the scrubs in Dubai?

Are they set on the lead, with a doomed strategy, when he'd be better suited to sit in the pocket of the 2nd group or so and make 1 run?

lots of questions, interesting horse interesting puzzle

Form

Mendelssohn

7th start G2 UAE DERBY 1 3/16M - Ridden to get the lead, Controlled a moderate-to-slow pace on the lead, field bunched a bit approaching the far turn, opened up on the turn, continued opening up on the field while entering the stretch on the wrong lead, switched leads and continued a a strong run through the stretch to win by an eye-popping 18.5 lengths.

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

5th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 1 1/16M - Drew rail post. Urged from gate to get forward position. Sat in the pocket covered up, saving ground, professional, strong fundamentals, Came off the rail to strike the front and made a strong run through the stretch to win, while late runner closing the gap to 1 Length, but never threatening the outcome.

4th start G1 Darley Dewhurst 7f Turf - tracked leaders, Clearly 2nd-best albeit to very good horse (US Navy Flag).

3rd start G2 Champagne Stakes 7f Turf - tracked leaders, weakened, eased to last.

2nd start 1 M turf weak field - Broke maiden, 1 length winner.

debut 7F Turf strong field - Finished 8th by 16L of a 13-horse field.

[kevb]

Originally Posted by papillon

Seahenge is supposedly going to run in the Pat Day Mile.

Another KY bred Coolmore/Aiden O'Brien Scat Daddy whose been racing against Mendelssohn from almost day one, may provide even better insight. On firm ground, he's lost to Mendelssohn 3 in a row- on Del Mar turf, Dundalk all weather, and Dubai sand.

If I could, I'd place a bet on a Rayya - Mendelssohn - Seahenge sweep, just for the heck of it.

Boy does Coolmore really wants a new replacement for Scat Daddy. FWIW, they were interested in Justify but passed because he did not pass their vet inspection.

Thanks. I missed that. I'll be interested in Seahenge's run.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

I thought carrying 134 lbs might have hurt him here?

He only carried 131 lbs in his first 2 career races as a 2 year old.

Then 3 races in succession where he carried 126, 127, 122 before the race at Dundalk. Seems like carrying that 12 extra pounds next out after lower weights might have impacted his drawing away?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

OK, then what explains Nick Zero ??

At the time I posted I was thinking of Summer Bird.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

'video game Mendelssohn'

paints him somewhat like an American Pharaoh... He can run for the lead, relax from hoof-to-ear and cruise along, bound into the far turn and show a big response to tackle leaders/draw off.

Is he the 128 TimeformUS/106 Beyer UAE Derby?

Or the 110 TimeformUS/86 Beyer BCJUVTURF?

Can he get near a Kentucky Derby pace, and chill like he can against the scrubs in Dubai?

Are they set on the lead, with a doomed strategy, when he'd be better suited to sit in the pocket of the 2nd group or so and make 1 run?

lots of questions, interesting horse interesting puzzle

Form

Mendelssohn

7th start G2 UAE DERBY 1 3/16M - Ridden to get the lead, Controlled a moderate-to-slow pace on the lead, field bunched a bit approaching the far turn, opened up on the turn, continued opening up on the field while entering the stretch on the wrong lead, switched leads and continued a a strong run through the stretch to win by an eye-popping 18.5 lengths.

6th start Dundalk Patton S. 1M - (polytrack) Strong run through the stretch. Hard to drive to win by just a length, although he did look visually superior to his rival. I couldn't see the entire race or a good chart, but it may have been a slow-paced race(that would explain the difficulty of drawing away).

5th start G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 1 1/16M - Drew rail post. Urged from gate to get forward position. Sat in the pocket covered up, saving ground, professional, strong fundamentals, Came off the rail to strike the front and made a strong run through the stretch to win, while late runner closing the gap to 1 Length, but never threatening the outcome.

4th start G1 Darley Dewhurst 7f Turf - tracked leaders, Clearly 2nd-best albeit to very good horse (US Navy Flag).

3rd start G2 Champagne Stakes 7f Turf - tracked leaders, weakened, eased to last.

2nd start 1 M turf weak field - Broke maiden, 1 length winner.

debut 7F Turf strong field - Finished 8th by 16L of a 13-horse field.

Nice write up. I too am thinking a lead will be a doomed strategy. If I knew this horse would stalk the pace I'd have no problem betting him. Do not like his chances gunning straight for the lead vs an American pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I thought carrying 134 lbs might have hurt him here?

He only carried 131 lbs in his first 2 career races as a 2 year old.

Then 3 races in succession where he carried 126, 127, 122 before the race at Dundalk. Seems like carrying that 12 extra pounds next out after lower weights might have impacted his drawing away?

Great point. Weight is such a non-factor here, that I seldom check unless a horse is picking up big weight after recent success.

Was Mendelssohn (134) carrying a lot more than the others?

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Great point. Weight is such a non-factor here, that I seldom check unless a horse is picking up big weight after recent success.

Was Mendelssohn (134) carrying a lot more than the others?

I don't think so, only Raaya carried less weight AFAIK

He was sans lasix though. So he will probably recover from that race more quickly, then add that he will most likely receive lasix in the Derby.

Shipping distance may be a wash as far as the recovering quickly part.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Nice write up. I too am thinking a lead will be a doomed strategy. If I knew this horse would stalk the pace I'd have no problem betting him. Do not like his chances gunning straight for the lead vs an American pace.

I think he gets an easy lead myself.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

I think he gets an easy lead myself.

From the 14 hole with a ton of speed to the inside? I do like his post overall. He should get a clean break from there and that can be half the battle.

[PoloUK6108]

For some reason I keep getting flashbacks of Aiden on his phone after winning the juvenile turf and shaking hands with everyone...is this really the year??

Ain't it great being American?..we kind of want to see it happen, but at the same time we don't because we stick with our own! A generalization, of course..

At least the horse came from KY, but all the best do.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

More significant is his trainer being 1-for-54 lifetime in American graded stakes on dirt.


Now whyyyyyyyyyyyy is anyone even considering his charge at a massive underlay??

At least wait until the guy ascends to the 2% threshold in that category.

How many of those had dirt pedigrees?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by wisconsin

I think he gets an easy lead myself.

Not going 25 and 48 he isn't.