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Old 04-03-2017, 07:25 AM   #1
boys at tosconova
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wood memorial

discuss

looks like cloud computing and battalion runner will be the favorites. and rightfully so.

i guess irish war cry and mo tom will be there as well..wonder how many they'll put into the gate?.

i love discussing the wood as none of these horses have run a lick in the derby in many years. despite how good they've looked. the wood curse is alive, and auto tossing them all has been the right move. obv previous results aren't indicative of future ones, but they've been as bad as the uae horses for what seems like a long time.

you could've had always dreamin@ 40/50-1 the day before the race and you can prolly get 30-1+ on both of these wood favorites if you look hard enough or know somebody in vegas...if that turns u on....

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 04-06-2017 at 01:07 AM.
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Old 04-03-2017, 12:14 PM   #2
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Frosted was an OK horse from the wood and hit the board. Also remember I Want Revenge and Eskenderaya where 2 good looking horses from the Wood that did not make the derby due to injury.

I like Cloud Computing here but id like him a lot more if he is teh 3rd choice behind Irish War Cry and Battalion Runner. Irish War Cry could take some local fan money being from Jersey and all...
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Old 04-03-2017, 01:06 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
i love discussing the wood as none of these horses have run a lick in the derby in many years. despite how good they've looked. the wood curse is alive, and auto tossing them all has been the right move. obv previous results aren't indicative of future ones, but they've been as bad as the uae horses for what seems like a long time.
Reasons for the weak Wood Memorial impact:

1) Number of starters

Here are the starters from the 5 main prep races since 2000:

Blue Grass - 65
Arkansas Derby - 49
Santa Anita Derby - 43
Wood Memorial - 37
Florida Derby - 31

2) Todd Pletcher

Todd Pletcher has won 4 of the last 7 Wood Memorials. Pletcher's Kentucky Derby record is something like 1 for 49. That doesn't count the numerous high profile candidates that were forced to miss the KY Derby due to injury or illness. You can pretty much throw out any of his Derby horses that make it to the race at least in the top spot.

3) Injuries to winners

In this century, there has been several Wood winners who went down with injuries prior to the KY Derby. Buddha, I Want Revenge, Eskendereya, and Toby's Corner. Not to suggest they would have won the Derby, but 2yo champs War Pass and Uncle Mo as well as El Kabeir were also knocked off just before the KY Derby.

4) Florida Derby date change

The rescheduling of the FL Derby has clearly impacted the Wood. In fact, this would been the main justification for downgrading the Wood to a Grade 2. Historically, most of the top Wood horses wintered in Florida and prepped there before a final tuneup for the KY Derby in the Wood. With the FL Derby positioned more closely to the big race, there is little reason for a trainer to ship to NY to run, other than to duck a top rival or try and earn points with a second tier or late blooming type.

That said, the Wood has had an interesting impact on the KY Derby this century. Between 2000-2003, it was responsible for 2 and nearly 3 KY exactas. Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude were 1-2 in 2000 and Funny Cide and Empire Maker were 1-2 in 2003. In 2001, Congaree was just tagged out of second place by Invisible Ink behind winner Monarchos.

More recently, since 2006 (11 Derbys), the Wood Memorial has produced the 4th place finisher 5 times (Jazil, Tale of Ekati, Normandy Invasion, Wicked Strong, Frosted). Superfecta players should take note.
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Old 04-03-2017, 03:33 PM   #4
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I have not scoured the full potential field yet but it is assumed Irish War Cry, Battalion Runner, and Cloud Computing will run. All three are MrP/RAN on top and have Buckpasser-x. All three fit the dosage profile. All three have shown enough speed at 8.5 to win here. I do wonder how good these are when the trainers opt for the G2 Wood over several G1 options (Florida, Ark, SA). The Blue Grass was dumped to a G2 as well. You have to go back to the early part of the previous decade but Funny Cide, Monarchos, and Fusaichi Pegasus ran fast final fractions in the Wood then took the Roses. Empire Maker beat Funny Cide in the Wood and they reversed positions in the Derby making up a nice exacta.
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Old 04-03-2017, 08:27 PM   #5
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If you believe the Timeform numbers (which I do), the NY preps up to this point have seen some of the highest figs put up. The Wood as a non-factor in the Derby can't continue forever. Sunland and Turfway have produced recent winners, Aqueduct has to come up with one eventually, right?
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Old 04-03-2017, 10:22 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
That said, the Wood has had an interesting impact on the KY Derby this century. Between 2000-2003, it was responsible for 2 and nearly 3 KY exactas. Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude were 1-2 in 2000 and Funny Cide and Empire Maker were 1-2 in 2003. In 2001, Congaree was just tagged out of second place by Invisible Ink behind winner Monarchos.

wut a bevy of info. top, top.

but what sticks out the most is that no wood horse has finished 2nd or better since 2003, and your explanation almost makes it sound like 14 yrs isn't a long time.
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Old 04-03-2017, 10:45 PM   #7
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The Blue Grass has been arguably more useless than the Wood. Only one Derby winner in Street Sense (2007) between Thunder Gulch (1995) and now. The old fake dirt configuration probably didn't help matters. This is a neat prep race score card. Looks like it hasn't been updated in a couple years but gives you an idea the value of various preps. Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby have been superior in recent decades.
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Old 04-03-2017, 11:07 PM   #8
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but what sticks out the most is that no wood horse has finished 2nd or better since 2003, and your explanation almost makes it sound like 14 yrs isn't a long time.
As far as what has happened in those 14 years, i.e. Derby-inept Pletcher dominating recent runnings and a multitude of unfortunate injuries, I think there are some viable excuses for the lack of Wood impact on the KY Derby.

However, as far as the future is concerned, it does not look rosy, specifically because of the rescheduling of the Florida Derby. That has essentially knocked the Wood Memorial off its historical perch.

Unless barns like McLaughlin or Brown or Mott, none of whom have made much of a dent in the Triple Crown thus far, are willing to leave their top 3yos in NY (McLaughlin left Travers winner Alpha a few years back) for the winter, I wouldn't anticipate that the race will continue to serve as a consistent source of Derby timber.
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Old 04-03-2017, 11:20 PM   #9
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I like the Wood field this year. Solid field.

The Blue Grass is a really really good field. Great to see these preps get solid action again. Fully expecting the KD winner coming from one of these 2 fields.

The Santa Anita Derby looks like the weakest field of the weekend. Pretty damn interesting.
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Old 04-04-2017, 12:31 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by MNslappy View Post
The Wood as a non-factor in the Derby can't continue forever. Sunland and Turfway have produced recent winners, Aqueduct has to come up with one eventually, right?
my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.
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Old 04-04-2017, 12:34 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.
You could have flipped coins for the rest of your life to come up with Mine That Bird.
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Old 04-04-2017, 12:47 AM   #12
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You could have flipped coins for the rest of your life to come up with Mine That Bird.


you want to see something really funny. watch the japan world cup part I. there are a few more episodes so watch away and lol.


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Old 04-04-2017, 07:19 PM   #13
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Gambler's Fallacy

Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
my friend once flipped a coin and 15 times in a row it came up heads.

after the 15th time i was convinced that this streak couldn't continue so i wagered him 100 bucks that it was going to tails. it was heads again.

i thought that the law of averages was on my side that if i did lose this hundo i would double up and make it back. thing is it came up heads 4 more times and i went busto.
The "Monte Carlo Fallacy". The mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future.
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Old 04-04-2017, 08:10 PM   #14
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the wood does produce the tail end of the derby super a lot however, weird how that works out.... 3 of the last 4.

keep in mind I want Revenge and Eskendereya got hurt and would of been 2 good horses

the Bluegrass havent really produced many derby winners this century either, probably less than the wood. but this year both those 2 races are actually pretty decent. Louisiana Derby was pathetic, Santa Anita derby looks weak too.
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Old 04-04-2017, 08:52 PM   #15
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Also as far as the Wood goes and really Irish War Cry, I hope they don't try to get him to sit off the pace again. He clearly does not want to do that. Let him run his race and see what happens and if he gets to the derby again let him try to take them around if thats what he wants to do. Just let him run his race. Hell, War Emblem did it and clearly he did not enjoy trying to rate.



LET HIM RUN!!!
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