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Old 08-29-2015, 07:51 PM   #61
MJC922
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Good call by PA. This is just a one factor race on post-mortem, one factor meaning Frosted's brush move on the turn. Saw it in the FOY, saw it in the Wood, granted it never materialized in the Belmont because he was locked inside on the backstretch and had to slowly ration it snaking up the fence.... if he's on the outside of you in 48 you will feel the pain.

It's all trips and pace, Keen Ice at least enough horse to pick him up. I like AP, best horse before the race and still the best horse after IMO but I don't like horses getting through an entire career without facing an ounce of adversity either. So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:04 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by MJC922
So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?
Give him a break and come back at 4 in mostly 9f races, then have requisite "foot" problem that necessitates foregoing the BC Classic at 10f.

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Old 08-29-2015, 08:07 PM   #63
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Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck

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Old 08-29-2015, 08:07 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
I think that's wrong. This was the first nin-perfect trip. He still ran his race. He got beat because of the trip, not because of shipping.

Better trip he wins as usual.
What was wrong with the trip? He broke on top and ran slow fractions for the first half. The jockey could have taken the inside or outside path and could have chosen to run off the lead. If having one horse near him on the lead is a bad trip then he isn't nearly the talented, versatile horse we all thought he was.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:08 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by MJC922
Good call by PA. This is just a one factor race on post-mortem, one factor meaning Frosted's brush move on the turn. Saw it in the FOY, saw it in the Wood, granted it never materialized in the Belmont because he was locked inside on the backstretch and had to slowly ration it snaking up the fence.... if he's on the outside of you in 48 you will feel the pain.

It's all trips and pace, Keen Ice at least enough horse to pick him up. I like AP, best horse before the race and still the best horse after IMO but I don't like horses getting through an entire career without facing an ounce of adversity either. So we tame this hype machine a bit and do some thinking about what Honor Code and Tonalist can do in the Classic after AP chases Liam's Map around. BC a long time off still but if it shapes up that way retirement might be the smart thing to do, tough decision, what would you do?
Beholder is far better than the mediocre New York older horses. She's the likely Classic winner if she starts and fires.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:14 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by dilanesp
Beholder is far better than the mediocre New York older horses. She's the likely Classic winner if she starts and fires.
Beholder hasnt won outside of California..Likeliest Classic winner?
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:16 PM   #67
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I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:20 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by Kash$
Game effort...

Was Frosted entrymate with Keen Ice
Funny you should ask. No love lost between the arabs and the irish.

Frosted basically ran lapped onto ap the whole way

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Old 08-29-2015, 08:22 PM   #69
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Funny you should ask. No love lost between the arabs and the irish.

Frosted basically ran lapped onto ap the whole way

Allan
Allan Rosario was taken off his mounts..Lezcano replaced Rosario on Frosted yikes!!
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:26 PM   #70
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Beholder hasnt won outside of California..Likeliest Classic winner?
Second beaten a half length in one of the biggest races in Kentucky, where the BC will be held.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:29 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by EMD4ME
I don't care. He was treated like the second coming of GOD and Secretariat.

He lost with no excuse.

I don't want to hear any BUTS OR IFS or blah blah blah.

HE LOST and he's no superhorse.

Just another good horse.

Yawn....
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:30 PM   #72
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Tom
Keen Ice was my key horse and I wheeled him 2nd in the Tri for a buck...I felt if he wins the best chance for a big pay day was to use him in the pk 3 with ALL-ALL-7 for a buck....hoping for a bomb of course but no such luck...

I figured if instead I wheeled him on top in the Tri for a buck and if AP got 2nd the tri would not be huge like a possible Pk 3 would be

I wanted to key on the top 2 jockeys at Saratoga...Irad or Javier and when I saw Javier was aboard Keen Ice that made my mind up as I liked Keen Ice in his previous races and here we were at Saratoga, distance and what better jockey than Javier on Keen Ice the closer.

But to bad for me having ALL-ALL in the first 2 legs of the Pk 3 had favorites win and not one bomb or even a long shot

EDIT I am having all kinds of trouble getting into my NY Rewards account but I just now did get in and see just over $200.00 in my account so that must be what the pick 3 paid for a buck
Singling a 16-1 in a pick 3, or any horizontal bet, doesn't make sense. You got 3-1 for your money, when you could have gotten 16-1.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:32 PM   #73
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Congrats to Keen Ice.

Was most surprised that Frosted got all into Pharoah's grill, thought that Upstart would be the one to challenge AP and then maybe hang on to place or show.
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:39 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.
You can't blame the connections they wanted to parade him around the Northeast where they live. After the race the jock said AP felt different especially on the way to the gate and at the 5/8ths marker. I don't know if the 9000 mile trips in the past 21 days got him or if Frosted just took the starch out of him. On a different note did one of the TVG guys say we now have a new contender for the 3 y/o of the year? Please tell me I didn't hear that .
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Old 08-29-2015, 08:48 PM   #75
MJC922
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm not going to get a chance to review the day and watch the replays until tomorrow, but I feel comfortable saying that was not the same horse we've seen all year. It's not so much that he lost. It's that IMO he's clearly a more brilliant horse than Frosted but he couldn't get away from him on the turn. He ultimately dug in and put him away, but he didn't have his usual turn of foot while it was still early in the race. Either all the shipping and the tough campaign finally got to him or right on the rail path was a little deeper.

Early in the card I thought the track might be playing better to the outside. I even adjusted my thinking mid card. But then a few horses did some running inside for at least parts of their races. So I was less sure. Given AP was running in their while pressured and came up short, it has to at least be considered pending a review of the head on replays etc....

I thought going to the Travers was a huge strategic mistake and said so on another forum. It was too much to ask. Even if he had he passed this test, he's not a bottomless pit. It was going to be really tough getting him to the Classic ready to fire his A race taking this path. Now we may have seen the last of him.
I don't know how he would get away from him on the turn, no 3yo ever pulled away from Frosted on the turn when he's stalking outside like that, he looped some of the better ones in the derby preps and gave them the staggers, that's his calling card right there, you're looking down the barrel of a loaded gun when he's on your outside in 48. Predictably he flattens after that but he owns the turn. To his credit AP was able to quicken up and not let him pull ahead by more. AP won points from me right there. Now this was a very solid tested effort, IMO, probably not his very best but I thought AP ran an solid race. Three horses you don't want to mess with on the turn, Calculator (injured, could've been any kind), Frosted (goes without saying), Liam's Map (after being 5 wide if you recall, Valid can vouch) -- honorable mention to American Pharoah.

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