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Old 07-28-2015, 11:03 PM   #1
mikesal57
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Betting Stategy?

Hi Guys...

Would like to throw this out to all...

Posted plays last 2 days...
With winners in 12 out of 16 races..But still lost money

How can this be turned into a profitable day(s)?

Code:
 Handifast Delaware 7/28
Race 1...7-5-3                #7 $5.40
Race 2...6-4-10               #6 &3.40
Race 3...8-2-4                #8 $3.80
Race 4...9-8-6                OUT
Race 5...8-6-10               #6 $6.40
Race 6...5-9-2                OUT
Race 7...3-5- (1&7 tied)      #7 $4.60



 Handifast Saratoga 7/27


Race 1...3-1-6                #3 $6.10                      
Race 2...4-3-7                OUT
Race 3...1-4-6                #1 $3.00
Race 4...2-6-10               #2 $7.10
Race 5...1-2-4                #1 $6.60
Race 6...6-9-7                OUT
Race 7...9-1-3                #1 $4.70
Race 8...10-7-4               #4 $19.20
Race 9...6-4-3                #6 $4.80
Thxs

Mike
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:07 PM   #2
horses4courses
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Wager history

Unless you list how you wagered (amounts not necessary, just units)
it's like trying to read a map in the dark.
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:10 PM   #3
cj
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Obvious answer is flat win bets.
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:16 PM   #4
mikesal57
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I have 3 contenders per race...

So bet each and hope one of the price horses comes in and live with the losing on days like the last 2?
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:25 PM   #5
wonatthewire1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I have 3 contenders per race...

So bet each and hope one of the price horses comes in and live with the losing on days like the last 2?
You'll have to stop dutching 3

if it were me, i'd need 6-1 and up to bet 3 to win but I never go that many deep
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:25 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I have 3 contenders per race...

So bet each and hope one of the price horses comes in and live with the losing on days like the last 2?
Only way to answer that is to consult your records for a long period of time. If you don't have records, you should start.
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:30 PM   #7
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Mike,

Simply put, when you catch a string of favorites/low prices like this, you are lucky if you come close to even.

Even the whales lose with prices like that. (Especially?)
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:35 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Even the whales lose with prices like that. (Especially?)
Now that's funny....
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Old 07-28-2015, 11:53 PM   #9
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I'll just throw out an idea if you like chalk.

Find the 4 chalks you like the most for the day.

Play 4 parlays.

All 4 horses to win for a $20 parlay.

Play a 3 race parlay with Horses in race 123, races 124 and races 234.

If each horse wins and pays $4 you make the following:

Bet #1 (4 parlays) $300 ($320 minus cost of bet $20)
Bets #2,3&4 (the other 3 parlays make $160 each X3 = $480 minus $60 cost of bet-$420 profit).

You score out for $720 profit on 80 wagered for the day.

If 1 horse loses and the other 3 win. You wagered $80 and made $80 for the day. (because 1 parlay clicked for $160)

If 2 win, you lose $80.

If you bet them all to win for $20 bucks and hit all 4, you make $80 for the day. If you hit 3/4 you win $40 bucks. If you hit 2 you break even. If you hit 1, you lose 40. Go 0/4 you lose $80.

Al depends what you're looking to do in this game.

As others mentioned. Keep records.

Was just giving you a quick idea, just in case you like to bet to win/place/show and have some more fun vs. straight wps bets.

Last edited by EMD4ME; 07-28-2015 at 11:54 PM.
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Old 07-29-2015, 12:23 AM   #10
Robert Fischer
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I'm looking at your Saratoga only right now. (past my bedtime)

chalky numbers overall.

If your top selections are that chalky, the best choice is generally to pass those races altogether and build around the races where you have contenders at better value. (races 3 and 9 were probably the worst offenders from the info given). Races 4,5 were a decent sequence and race 8 obviously turned out well.



For a more 'fun' way, - You also hit 4/8 doubles. Not that costly to bet a caveman double (abc x abc) for each race and then back it up with ab x ab , and then some slightly heavier a's with abc , or axa etc... combos, so if the favs do hit, you will still be in the game.
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Old 07-29-2015, 01:30 AM   #11
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Not sure about Delaware but at Saratoga, that was just a chalky day. "Chalk" it up as a bad day and keep going. Delaware, according to last year, plays to below average win prices, so I suggest that you drop that track and play one that offers higher average win payouts, if you're going to bet 3 horses flat.

You could opt to dutch all 3, and pass races that are not possible to dutch 3. That will help protect you against days like this where too many low prices come in, and against tracks that are generally more chalky.

Your contenders look good, but if you don't try to get down to a single horse, and prefer to bet all 3, then you almost have to dutch or concentrate your efforts at tracks with higher average win payouts.
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Old 07-29-2015, 01:48 AM   #12
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IMHO, eventually there must be some kind of Value Component to the process.

That is, there must be a way to decide if the race is playable and to what extent the race (or a horse in the race) should be bet.


Some significant percentage of these races probably (with the OP's handicapping) had less value than should be required to make a wager.
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Old 07-29-2015, 02:06 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
IMHO, eventually there must be some kind of Value Component to the process.

That is, there must be a way to decide if the race is playable and to what extent the race (or a horse in the race) should be bet.


Some significant percentage of these races probably (with the OP's handicapping) had less value than should be required to make a wager.
I agree, the OP needs good record keeping data in order to know what to expect in specific tracks, race types, surfaces, distances, etc.. For example, your record keeping might show that in 6f dirt races for claimers, in order to make a flat win bet profit at that track in those races, you need at least 5/2 odds on the lowest priced horse of the 3, etc.
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Old 07-29-2015, 02:28 AM   #14
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Quote:
I agree, the OP needs good record keeping data in order to know what to expect in specific tracks, race types, surfaces, distances, etc.. For example, your record keeping might show that in 6f dirt races for claimers, in order to make a flat win bet profit at that track in those races, you need at least 5/2 odds on the lowest priced horse of the 3, etc.
In my experience, I have issues with the bold part. I have not ever been able to say that playing above (say) 5/2 is profitable. Sure, perhaps on a particular horse that was once possible, but with the extreme movement of the tote, not any more.

Your experience may differ, of course.

My reality is that the few odds-on horses I wager are marginal losers but, since I don't use the tote board in my decision process, I don't know they will be odds-on until the horses are down the backstretch of later.

I do have the occasional race where I win the 2-horse bet and barely break-even.

Instead, I have chosen to create a bet-size metric based upon the percentage of theoretical pool I am NOT betting and the pool that is made up of my NON-CONTENDERS.

Thus, going into a race with 2 horses projected to be (say) 8/5 and 2/1 could only become a playable race for me if they were the ONLY contenders I had in the race.

BTW, one of my favorite spot exacta plays is when I have 2 low-odds contenders and there is a 3rd low-odds horse that I have tossed. These exactas return amazing money - often as much as $24 (5/1 net) or more.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 07-29-2015 at 02:29 AM.
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Old 07-29-2015, 02:39 AM   #15
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You have to change your approach.
It would be a very good idea to lose your chalk leaning ways.

A) Betting on 3 horses in a race to win,and leaning towards the short prices to boot is a sure fire way to go broke in a hurry.

B) You listed 16 races.
In 14 of those races your top choice was the morning line favorite.

C) Go find a thread on value plays on the board,and pay attention to what some of the PA sharpies have to say.
There's alot of talented horseracing minds on this board,see if you can pick up some of the knowledge they have.
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