Belmont Saturday

[PhantomOnTour]

Very good and challenging card today.

Anyone playing?

[jay68802]

They do have a couple of interesting races.

[BettinBilly]

Definitely playing. Nice card indeed. The maiden race #1 obviously has no pace projection (Timeform). Looking for the best value I can with my dart board on that one.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Yep.

Late Double/P3/P4/P5 look to be very playable.

[jay68802]

Sort of like the and in the second.....Not the odds I want so just watching.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Sort of like the and in the second.....Not the odds I want so just watching.

Can surely see passing here.

Small / EX

[Robert Fischer]

good luck

5th race - the 1a,1 entry is 2-1 ml. (the 1a is a) Flawed horse who could take CAW and Syndicate money and lose. I don't know if he's a toss from the exacta like many of these types. He's definitely worth examining as a play-against in the win slot.

still 8 betting interests after scratches.

see he's flawed, and the public and the syndicates probably can't see it. I'd assume he takes money from the syndicates and CAW, so it could be a good opportunity. There's always a risk you handicap the race and there are just weak rivals that aren't bettable, or that you get to the race and it's not favored in the doubles and will pays, or that they run the race and he moves up 10 pts or gets a very fortuitous trip.
These are the kind where you wake up in the morning feelin' good, because when you reviewed your flawed horses last night, you noticed he was entered today at a low morning line price. Then you saw he was an entry, and although the form on the entrymate is a bit darkened, your flawed horse appears to be 'carrying' the entry, thus is not only a flawed bet-against, but also likely to be somewhat overbet for being part of an entry with a non-factor entrymate...

maybe i will handicap the race, and see what horses to use and what the best tactics seem to be for wagering. IDK

[jay68802]

Fifth race.... is pretty fast, will at least make the go hard from the gate.

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm buying the chalk here in R2. The #9 was bumped at the break, raced wide throughout, and closed well into a fast final fraction

PICK 4





hoping to catch some value in the last leg (R5)

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Solid ride from Dylan there on the overmatched to save all the ground and hold for 3rd.

[jay68802]

Going to play into race 5 with a double:


/

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

R4


Not a fan of the fire sale pickup on the

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

R4


Not a fan of the fire sale pickup on the

So the gets pulled up and fanned 9 wide, and then re-rallies to almost grab 3rd?

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 5

The #8 has the look of a plodder/minor award type (and loses Irad) but the pace should flatter him. He rallied nicely thru a fast final fraction last time out, but switched back to his wrong lead late.
I'll key him underneath in exactas tris with the knowledge of a good Pick4 payment should he actually win (see my previous post).

EX: 1-4-5 w 8
TRI: 1-4-5 w 1-4-5-6-9 w 8

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

good luck

5th race - the 1a,1 entry is 2-1 ml. (the 1a is a) Flawed horse who could take CAW and Syndicate money and lose. I don't know if he's a toss from the exacta like many of these types. He's definitely worth examining as a play-against in the win slot.

still 8 betting interests after scratches.

see he's flawed, and the public and the syndicates probably can't see it. I'd assume he takes money from the syndicates and CAW, so it could be a good opportunity. There's always a risk you handicap the race and there are just weak rivals that aren't bettable, or that you get to the race and it's not favored in the doubles and will pays, or that they run the race and he moves up 10 pts or gets a very fortuitous trip.
These are the kind where you wake up in the morning feelin' good, because when you reviewed your flawed horses last night, you noticed he was entered today at a low morning line price. Then you saw he was an entry, and although the form on the entrymate is a bit darkened, your flawed horse appears to be 'carrying' the entry, thus is not only a flawed bet-against, but also likely to be somewhat overbet for being part of an entry with a non-factor entrymate...

maybe i will handicap the race, and see what horses to use and what the best tactics seem to be for wagering. IDK

exhausted and busy

he's FAVORED looks like a good bet-against opportunity to exploit the CAWs and Syndicates over a long-term strategy.