Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
Slated to run in the 9th at Bel today.
After watching a replay of his last race, I noticed the beaten lengths at the 2nd and 3rd call (1/4m & 1/2m) in BRIS pp's are inaccurate.
He's listed as being 2.5 and 2.0 lengths behind, which is less than half what it should be. I estimated it should be over 5 lengths at each call.
Checked GMax on the NYRA site and they have his BL as 6.0 and 5.4 at those calls.
At first I credited him with being fairly close to a hot pace (while wide the whole way) and finishing well. Now I see he closed into a hot pace, which is nothing special.
Still, I think he may be able to get a piece in a very competitive field.
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Good luck.
Born Dancer - Solid candidate for hitting the board. Seems like he'd need a fortunate trip and a fortunate lack of rival peformance, to contend for the win. Doesn't seem to have a high ceiling. Barn is going relatively well, could see some improvement at 4yo, but price is likely low and carries 7 extra pounds.
Oysta - long shot FTS. Would shock me if finished in the exacta, but not if he finished 4th or something.
Gossiping Pando - complex FTS. For better or worse; the will-pays and tote for this colt will probably be a barometer of talent and
intent.
Z Dancer - Good luck. I hope you score if you play. Adds blinkers. Last time out had more in the tank. Katie Davis is a hungry rider.
All Good Here - Clement is a very potent barn. Although the form looks a bit ugly, a close look at the video replays does not reveal significant flaws and is actually undecided in that it can be hiding some talent. April 14 had some traffic early and a lack of late flow. This may be a horse that you want to key somewhere on your vertical exotics. I think this race may be best attacked by using multiple keys on vertical exotics (which would then obviously call for a Tri or Su).
Chulligan has some major tradeoffs. On paper, he would be a horse to hammer on top and top-heavy keys and leveraged as a 'single' in certain multi-race wagers constructed FOR him due to being both a non-favorite(assuming ml on the money) and a standout in my models. I just do not like what I see on film.
Seemingly deemed the most talented, most precocious in this field. That's all clear from the money he took in his two starts, and apparent aptitude for dirt sprints in the barn of a turf master. Now that I glance at Brisnet, he apparently also sold for $825k.
First start, Rosario got excellent position, then could have skimmed the rail but didn't want to take unnecessary risks and eased off the rail. It ended up being a lucky benefit when Chulligan hesitated to change leads and then was able to lug in while changing leads. Leveled off and finished willingly to get 2nd. In Chulligan's Second start he again found himself inside to the turn, dropped back slightly on the turn itself and I don't blame the courage of McCarthy there - looked like Chulligan's fault. Was closer to the rail entering the stretch and was already looking empty, then was several strides late to change leads and was not in contention.
So, I was very surprised to find that I saw some flaws in
Chulligan on film, and actually liked
All Good Here, better.
However, Clement is a master. He's as potent as anyone and is also an amazingly skilled trainer of horses. Eight and a half months off, had about ten published works... he's got a talented Ny-Bred here. Last three works were on 'Turf' to prepare for Chulligan's first start on the Turf.
Clement is obviously comfortable on Turf. He does a wonderful job of Dirt-to-Turf. It is not uncommon for a horse who has minor lead-change issues on Dirt surfaces to change more naturally on the Turf. He could very well romp here. It's a complex horse with a lot of moving parts and it makes the entire race difficult for me. I'd probably pass the entire race. I'd look at low-cost tickets incorporating some other opinions (such as the #5, #11 #12) while 'trusting' this guy to be first and second.
Ferris Mueler - A ridiculously cool horse.
Unaffected - OAML (others appear mor...)
Tony O - Has been involved without being competitive.
Border Patrol - As a big price, this horse is a bit of a 'wildcard'. This is a potent ownership group. Whenever you see a potent trainer or owner at a big price, it's worth double checking the horse to see whether you can find some opportunities to sprinkle these types somewhere in your ticket structure. Works look solid on paper. Appears to be a homebred in their program. A horse like this can spice up a dime superfecta or something. You hope to see big odds to justify buying a few efficient tickets using a horse like this in a slot or two.
Stow On the World - Contender who projects on/near lead. Fast enough. Can he secure forward ground-saving trip with ease? Can he hang on? Probably. Figures to be competitive to deep stretch. Top jock. Everything looks nice, except for the price which suffers due to everything looking nice.
Captain Party - Handsome gray draws in today. Will attempt to close into a moderate pace from a wide trip. Although he is improving and is in good form, I believe he is a toss from 'win' and an underlay that you prefer to be out of the exacta as well. Not a horse that I want to key underneath. If he finishes 1st or 2nd; I Lose! And I may include a horse like this 3rd/4th on some tickets to feature other opinions singled in a slot with coverage over this horse slot but allow to run out of the money.
