Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Tom

That is EXACTLY what WE should be doing.
I am more than willing to stay home as much as possible and only go out to shop while taking PPE precautions because I am in the risk category.

No reason to keep healthy people home when they are not at that much of risk.

It is not all that bad staying home, not as long as hcap comes here everyday and publicly plays with math and makes a fool of himself - I even cancelled my cable!

hcap paints - literally - himself in to corners when he posts colorful graphs and he has no idea what they mean, then has to defend them.

Math - don't try this at home!

Now that is a real middle of the road post. There is no doubt that 20 years from now our country will be in a better position to handle something like this than it has done this time around. Your "No reason to keep healthy people home when they are not at that much of risk." I agree with. Also taking responsibility for your risk category is not something new to you but it is for the "cradle to grave mentality folk. Obviously New York being a big part of the latter. After the country being hit broadside we know where we want to be it is just a question in time to getting where we want to be. God help us all if it takes 20 years to a better preparedness.

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by hcap

Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-...erently-2020-4

Sweden — which has yet to order any lockdown amid the novel coronavirus pandemic — 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far.
The virus has been nearly 10 times as deadly as in Sweden than in other Nordic countries.

Norway, which has half as many people as Sweden, has seen 7,191 cases and 182 deaths. Finland, which has a population similar to Norway's, has seen 4,014 COVID-19 cases and 141 deaths.


This side-by-side of Sweden versus Norway shows that Sweden may have made a mistake in taking a relaxed approach to lockdown. Ian Shepherdson / Pantheon Macroeconomics

As of typing this, …. numbers via bing search

Michigan, in total lockdown has 36, 641 cases
Sweden, open with no lockdown, has 17,567 cases

Both have a population of about 10 million, Sweden slightly higher than Mich

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

As of typing this, …. numbers via bing search

Michigan, in total lockdown has 36, 641 cases
Sweden, open with no lockdown, has 17,567 cases

Both have a population of about 10 million, Sweden slightly higher than Mich

Que the "you are to dumb to compare numbers" response. Only experts can do this correctly.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

I report on what EXPERTS are thinking and saying. You distrust expertise and think there is a conspiracy by experts to defraud you.

Yet you post opinion pieces from amateurs in a field, and loonie tune crackpots

I didn't say a word about any "conspiracy". But I quoted a doctor (actually two now), so they know infinitely more than you do, Mr. Expert-in-Nothing!

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by boxcar

I didn't say a word about any "conspiracy". But I quoted a doctor (actually two now), so they know infinitely more than you do, Mr. Expert-in-Nothing!

Not for nothing, but the best modus operandi for dealing with this one and others is ignore 9 out of ten of their content until after November. The logic is that the landscape will have changed drastically.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Why can't they just stay in their homes, just like they are doing now?

And those living with them and taking care of them can stay in their homes with them...JUST LIKE THEY ARE DOING NOW.

It's quite simple, actually.

The current age distribution as of April 16, shows....

27.64% of the U.S population 64 and younger dies from covid-19. So right off the bat re-opening without efforts to control the resulting increased COVID-19 infection thru' effective testing, contact tracing and vaccines, will certainly lead to many more fatalities in that younger population alone. They are easily asymptomatic carriers and disease vectors if and when they come in contact with the at risk elderly.

Most but not all persons in need of long-term care are elderly. Approximately 63% are persons aged 65 and older (6.3 million)

About a quarter (23%) of adults ages 45 to 64 cares for an aging adult. A significant share of adults ages 65 and older – 17% – serve as caregivers for another aging American.

So there are millions of younger adults carting for millions of the elderly.
Re-opening those younger to no social restrictions ASS TO COVID-19, endanger those elderly they care for..

Most significantly you are underestimating the fatality numbers. So the millions at this higher risk I JUST DEMONSTRATED, may be many times what is evident now. Rather than the experts and the medical profession exaggerating deaths due to whatever suspicious paranoid theories you may have, the cold reality is......

‘Tip Of The Iceberg’: Why The Real Coronavirus Death Toll Is Much Higher
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/c...ath-toll-count

Authorities say infections and deaths have been under-reported almost everywhere. Thousands have died with COVID-19 symptoms — many in nursing homes, which have been ravaged by a disease that hits the elderly the hardest — without being tested. Four months into the outbreak, nations are still struggling to increase their testing capacity, and many are still far from their goal.

[hcap]

We do not know precisely how many more cases and deaths returning to your a do-nothing except "quarantine the elderly" will yield. Safe to say many, many more.

The extreme PA "gong-ho economy at all costs", seems to ignore "humanity at reasonable costs" philosophy, I and most expert epidemiologists, most politicians of all stripes and the public prefer.

Poll: Large majority of Americans think it’s more important to stay home than return to work
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...to-work-203427

A substantial majority of Americans say remaining at home to combat the coronavirus’ spread is more important than returning to work in a bid to jump-start the cratering U.S. economy, according to a new survey.

A CBS News poll published Thursday reports that 70 percent of respondents believe the country’s top priority should be to “try to slow the spread of coronavirus by keeping people home and social distancing, even if the economy is hurt in the short term.”

...................................
I will repeat what I told Valuist when he gave us a value of a human life in economic job costs of......

Originally Posted by hcap

Average salary at approx. $56,000. Means you have successfully put a value to one human life----around $31 million each.!
.................................................. ...............................
"A man asks a woman if she would be willing to sleep with him if he pays her an exorbitant sum. She replies affirmatively. He then names a paltry amount and asks if she would still be willing to sleep with him for the revised fee. The woman is greatly offended and replies as follows:

She: What kind of woman do you think I am? A prostitute?
He: We’ve already established that.........

Now we’re just haggling over the price!
.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

The current age distribution as of April 16, shows....

27.64% of the U.S population 64 and younger dies from covid-19. So right off the bat re-opening without efforts to control the resulting increased COVID-19 infection thru' effective testing, contact tracing and vaccines, will certainly lead to many more fatalities in that younger population alone. They are easily asymptomatic carriers and disease vectors if and when they come in contact with the at risk elderly.

.

which ever 'expert' gave you this information is MILES from the truth

[hcap]

Originally Posted by davew

which ever 'expert' gave you this information is MILES from the truth

HOWS MUCH WOULD YOU LIKE TO BET?

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

HOWS MUCH WOULD YOU LIKE TO BET?

how much do you want and how low does the number need to be in 6 months before you lose?

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by hcap

The current age distribution as of April 16, shows....

27.64% of the U.S population 64 and younger dies from covid-19. So right off the bat re-opening without efforts to control the resulting increased COVID-19 infection thru' effective testing, contact tracing and vaccines, will certainly lead to many more fatalities in that younger population alone. They are easily asymptomatic carriers and disease vectors if and when they come in contact with the at risk elderly.

Most but not all persons in need of long-term care are elderly. Approximately 63% are persons aged 65 and older (6.3 million)

About a quarter (23%) of adults ages 45 to 64 cares for an aging adult. A significant share of adults ages 65 and older – 17% – serve as caregivers for another aging American.

So there are millions of younger adults carting for millions of the elderly.
Re-opening those younger to no social restrictions ASS TO COVID-19, endanger those elderly they care for..

Most significantly you are underestimating the fatality numbers. So the millions at this higher risk I JUST DEMONSTRATED, may be many times what is evident now. Rather than the experts and the medical profession exaggerating deaths due to whatever suspicious paranoid theories you may have, the cold reality is......

‘Tip Of The Iceberg’: Why The Real Coronavirus Death Toll Is Much Higher
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/c...ath-toll-count

Authorities say infections and deaths have been under-reported almost everywhere. Thousands have died with COVID-19 symptoms — many in nursing homes, which have been ravaged by a disease that hits the elderly the hardest — without being tested. Four months into the outbreak, nations are still struggling to increase their testing capacity, and many are still far from their goal.

Thousands for sure have died WITH covid-19, which is NOT the same as saying that the virus was the actual cause of death! I pointed out this little "factoid" weeks ago. I believe it was the The NIH that issued a directive early on that it waz to be assumed that the cause of death was with virus for anyone who died WITH it.

Also, these millions of younger adults who are caring the elderly, are not these elderly protected by wearing masks? If masks, which are supposed to protect the wearers don't do the job, then why is virtually everyone forced to wear a mask in public?

[PaceAdvantage]

STILL not even at 200k deaths worldwide.

The flu continues to laugh at puny man-boy COVID-19

[AndyC]

[QUOTE=hcap;2593083]The current age distribution as of April 16, shows....

27.64% of the U.S population 64 and younger dies from covid-19. So right off the bat re-opening without efforts to control the resulting increased COVID-19 infection thru' effective testing, contact tracing and vaccines, will certainly lead to many more fatalities in that younger population alone. They are easily asymptomatic carriers and disease vectors if and when they come in contact with the at risk elderly.

Most but not all persons in need of long-term care are elderly. Approximately 63% are persons aged 65 and older (6.3 million)[QUOTE]


Wow. That would be a real devastating stat if, in fact, it was true. 27.64% of the US population under 65 dies from Covid-19. If you are going to provide such horrible news you might want to reference where it came from.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by hcap

27.64% of the U.S population 64 and younger dies from covid-19.

This statement is nonsensical.

Just read it, makes zero sense in any context.

27.64% of 64 and younger that get the virus die?

27.64% of all deaths in the US for 64 and younger are virus deaths?

27.64% of the population 64 and younger at some point will die of the virus?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Thousands for sure have died WITH covid-19, which is NOT the same as saying that the virus was the actual cause of death! I pointed out this little "factoid" weeks ago. I believe it was the The NIH that issued a directive early on that it waz to be assumed that the cause of death was with virus for anyone who died WITH it.

Also, these millions of younger adults who are caring the elderly, are not these elderly protected by wearing masks? If masks, which are supposed to protect the wearers don't do the job, then why is virtually everyone forced to wear a mask in public?

Total bullshit. I just posted...

Tip Of The Iceberg’: Why The Real Coronavirus Death Toll Is Much Higher
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/c...ath-toll-count

More than wearing masks are necessary. Besides if wearing masks were no big deal why are you "economy at all costs" fanatics bitching and trying to "liberate" states blocking traffic and carrying automatic weapons to make sure it's clear to we commies?