a spot

[how cliche]

i've lost my zeal to grind ad nauseum online. don't compete much at all, really. i play just a handful of live tournaments a year for fun these days. today was one. here's a key spot. i'd like to know what you would do.


there's 13 of us left and the money bubble is burst at 12 so everybody is playing snugly. blinds are 3k/6k-6k bb ante. i'm bb and probably the chip leader, but nobody's deep. i started the hand w just over 150k. i'm the bb so before a card is dealt i've committed 12k. in the small blind is a 60yo latino man i've sat w for almost 3 hours. i really don't know how his post flop game is, but his pre flop game is aggressive and exploitative. when folded to on the button or the small blind, he raises big, like every time, and gets nothing but folds. he got one out of me earlier in the big blind. i've counted him doing this 7 or 8 times and not once did he bypass his opportunity to do so. i respect this tactic. he played position pre and was abusing the bubble and earlier he was abusing the short stacks. these are skilled methods to accumulate.


ok so it folds around to his small blind and true to form he raises it up to 30k. i look down at A10 off suit. the worst thing i could do is call. if i did there would be 66k to the flop and i'd probably check fold if i didn't make a pair. you see, the point of inflection with stacks this shallow happen earlier. pre or on the flop. no turn or river decisions are in play until you have effective stacks in excess of 210k. he had 120k i had 140k behind.


so that leaves me with two ways to go. i can fold or reraise all in. which way would you go?

[Dave Schwartz]

Don't mean to derail this thread, but... Wow. I enjoyed reading this.

Poker has definitely changed since I played as a young guy.

It was great trying to figure out what you were saying. Thanks.

Now, back to the regularly scheduled commentary.
(Which I shall continue to read from the balcony.)

[thaskalos]

The man has raised 8 consecutive times in this particular situation...so the right assumption, IMO, is to give him credit for a hand slightly better than random. A-10o is way better than random...and the stacks don't allow for much "creativity". I'd shove all in...and put the decision to him. My guess is he folds, and plays the next hand from the preferred button.

[davew]

what is more important to you? win the tournament or at least cash?

if you get all-in on a coin-flip, you could be down to 20K (less than 1 round) or massive leader at 270K


but I agree with thaskalos, probably more than 65% they fold to shove

[how cliche]

spots like these make or break tournaments. you've competed for seven hours and it all comes down to this. if you play it safe and fold you're going to cash, guaranteed. who knows? you might even make a run. if you go for it and reraise all in you're telling everyone including yourself, you're playing to finish first. the problem is you're now vulnerable to missing the money entirely. most recs will make one of two decisions there. a lot of them just call. a lot of them fold. when i was a reg, i told myself to always play for first. why? because i'll never mincash enough to be profitable. regs are volume guys and top 3 runs are where they earn. period. the reason this spot was difficult for me is precisely because i'm a rec now. i liked the idea of auto doubling my buy in.

took a minute or two for training to prevail. i went all in and he snap called. did he really wake up with a huge hand? i had to turn over cards first and he looked pained. he then turned over K10 suited spades. i held the ace of spades. as a reg i would sit there dreading variance. as a rec i enjoyed a fist pump because i went in as a 70/30 fav. he must've thought me to be just making a move with air.

[davew]

I am surprised they snap called without at least a 50/50, but since you had to think about it maybe they felt you had an under pair to their cards and they had pot odds.

[sammy the sage]

Shoved...which you did....AND....???....finish what you started...the story that is...

[how cliche]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Shoved...which you did....AND....???....finish what you started...the story that is...

actually held for a change. ace in the window. no sweats through the runout.

from there it was smooth sailing. had a lot of coaching about maintaining a big stack and extending a lead when i was a reg. had a couple of bumps later when short stacks open shoved suited kings and jacks and i snapped em off as the 70/30 fav but lost. i quickly rebounded to ko others. helped i kept being dealt premium hands. 99+, A10s+.

when we got down to four, we made a deal. it was dispursed on icm, or chipstack% vs total chips in play. remaining rizepool x .48 for me. why agree to that? donkaments are too fast. starting stacks are 10k. 108 runners=1,080,000 chips total. blinds were 20k/40k-40kbba. i was the leader and not deep. i liked the deal. not quite first place money, but close enough. the amount of times variance gets me a worse payout there isn't known, but it's a lot.

[sammy the sage]

very nice...good job,,,,

[barn32]

You didn't need to play that hand. Let him steal it. What if he wakes up with a hand? What if he has a pair. You're dominated by AA, KK, QQ, JJ & TT. Along with AK, AQ & AJ. You can only beat K-T.

You're in the cat-bird seat and can afford to wait. Let him take out the bubble.

If he keeps doing that, you will inevitably find a better spot later on once you're in the money.

BTW, I don't quite understand how the fact that he is a "60-year-old Latino Male" entered into your thought process? Do they have some sort of playing style that I'm unfamiliar with? Tells? Peculiarities?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by how cliche

when we got down to four, we made a deal. it was dispursed on icm, or chipstack% vs total chips in play. remaining rizepool x .48 for me. why agree to that? donkaments are too fast. starting stacks are 10k. 108 runners=1,080,000 chips total.

Just curious, but before you made the deal, what were the top 4 places paying?

[how cliche]

Originally Posted by barn32

You didn't need to play that hand. Let him steal it. What if he wakes up with a hand? What if he has a pair. You're dominated by AA, KK, QQ, JJ & TT. Along with AK, AQ & AJ. You can only beat K-T.

You're in the cat-bird seat and can afford to wait. Let him take out the bubble.

If he keeps doing that, you will inevitably find a better spot later on once you're in the money.

BTW, I don't quite understand how the fact that he is a "60-year-old Latino Male" entered into your thought process? Do they have some sort of playing style that I'm unfamiliar with? Tells? Peculiarities?

firstly, that kind of thinking is results oriented. thaskalos put it well in his post. he'd exploited this and one other positional spot pre w/o ever passing on them 7x prior. therefore K10 is in the top 10% of his range. he has worse most of the time. i was thinking he'd do it with a top 50% range. A10o is a top 12% hand. yes there's a couple times of every 15 he does this that crushes me, but most of the time he should fold, including this one.

secondly, poker is the one area of life where creating age, sex and race profiles are nothing but useful. for this spot it wasn't that material, so i should've left it out. apologies. no offense intended.

[how cliche]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Just curious, but before you made the deal, what were the top 4 places paying?

don't remember. just that first outright woulda paid 4010. i dealt away more than 1k. but it was ALL nash from that point fwd. easily coulda finished anywhere. push/fold/prayer.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by how cliche

don't remember. just that first outright woulda paid 4010. i dealt away more than 1k. but it was ALL nash from that point fwd. easily coulda finished anywhere. push/fold/prayer.

Must have been a $100 buy-in tourney.....Not much pressure here to make a truly bad decision, as I agree you made the right conscious play.

[dilanesp]

Why not just put this hand into an ICM calculator? There's a mathematical answer here.