MLFs Less Than 3-1 Review @SAR -- week 1 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheOracle · 07-18-2019, 01:40 PM

Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have only been winning at a rate of 29.7%

Code:

1	07-11-2019	1st race	7	Real Dan (NY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MT A Pletcher	5/2#				
2	07-11-2019	2nd race	2	Sayyaaf (KY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	5.5 FurlC C Brown	6/5#	W	3.8	2.5	2.3
3	07-11-2019	3rd race	4	Potomac (KY)		Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C F Martin	2/1#				
4	07-11-2019	3rd race	6	Growth Engine (KY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	5/2#	P		5.9	3.2
5	07-11-2019	7th race	4	Giant Zinger (NY)	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/8 M	W I Mott	7/5#	S			2.9
6	07-11-2019	8th race	1	Shippy (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Muddy	6 Furl	D F ONeill	2/1#	S			2.4
7	07-11-2019	9th race	6	Call Paul (PA)		Stakes	Turf Yielding	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#				
8	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	8/5#				
9	07-12-2019	1st race	8	Oso Negro (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	2/1#	P		3.7	2.6
10	07-12-2019	2nd race	13	Daddy Knows (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	L Rice		1/1#	W	3.5	2.4	2.1
11	07-12-2019	3rd race	3	Complicit (KY)		Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 MC C Brown	8/5#	S			2.4
12	07-12-2019	3rd race	4	Dream Passage (NY)	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 MB H Cox		5/2#	P		4.0	2.6
13	07-12-2019	5th race	2	Good Shabbos (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	5/2#	P		3.7	2.9
14	07-12-2019	6th race	1	Felix in Fabula (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MB N Levine	8/5#	W	6.5	6.8	4.0
15	07-12-2019	6th race	1A	Curlin Road (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MR R Rodriguez	8/5#	P		6.8	4.0
16	07-12-2019	7th race	15	Saloon Girl (NY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	5.5 FurlW A Ward	5/2#	P		3.7	3.1
17	07-12-2019	8th race	6	Doups Point (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C Clement	5/2#	S			2.1
18	07-13-2019	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	P		2.7	2.2
19	07-13-2019	2nd race	5	Lindas Ballet (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	5.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	W	9.2	4.2	3.5
20	07-13-2019	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D F ONeill	5/2#	S			2.4
21	07-13-2019	3rd race	3	Cucina (FL)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M E Casse	8/5#				
22	07-13-2019	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	E Kenneally	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.3
23	07-13-2019	4th race	6	Zyramid (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlS M Asmussen	8/5#	W	4.9	3.5	2.7
24	07-13-2019	5th race	1	Originator (KY)		Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlI R Wilkes	8/5#	W	5.8	3.3	2.5
25	07-13-2019	5th race	1A	Noble Freud (NY)	Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	8/5#				
26	07-13-2019	8th race	6	Peaceful (KY)		Mdn SpclTurf Good	5.5 FurlJ Thomas	2/1#	W	7.4	3.4	2.5
27	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
28	07-13-2019	9th race	4	Sistercharlie (IRE)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	8/5#	W	5.8	3.2	2.2
29	07-13-2019	9th race	6	Homerique (KY)		Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	5/2#	S			2.3
30	07-13-2019	10th race	5	Payne (KY)		Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	6/5#	S			2.2
31	07-14-2019	1st race	9	Sweet Melania (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 1/16 MT A Pletcher	2/1#	W	5.2	3.9	3.2
32	07-14-2019	2nd race	3	Keeping the Peace (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#	W	4.9	3.1	2.7
33	07-14-2019	3rd race	4	Crack Shot (NY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	2/1#	S			2.6
34	07-14-2019	5th race	8	Positive Skew (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	C C Brown	6/5#	S			2.5
35	07-14-2019	8th race	8	Catch a Bid (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	5/2#	P		3.0	2.6
36	07-14-2019	9th race	4	Break Even (KY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlB H Cox		2/1#	W	4.2	3.3	2.5
37	07-14-2019	10th race	8	Mine the Coin (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	G Weaver	5/2#	P		2.8	2.4
38	07-17-2019	2nd race	2	Listentoyourheart (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Sloppy	6 Furl	C Clement	8/5#	P		3.9	2.9
39	07-17-2019	2nd race	3	Mission Wrapitup (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Sloppy	6 Furl	B R Brown	7/5#				
40	07-17-2019	3rd race	4	Pagliacci (KY)		Alw Op CDirt Sloppy	5.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	S			2.3
41	07-17-2019	3rd race	5	Petes Play Call (MD)	Alw Op CDirt Sloppy	5.5 FurlR Diodoro	5/2#	W	11.4	3.4	2.3
42	07-17-2019	3rd race	9	Fully Vested (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Sloppy	5.5 FurlT Albertrani	2/1#	P		2.3	2.1
43	07-17-2019	4th race	10	Flat Rate (KY)		Clm	Dirt Sloppy	1 M	R R Rodriguez	5/2#	S			3.5
44	07-17-2019	5th race	3	Myawaya (NY)		Mdn SpclDirt Sloppy	5.5 FurlT A Pletcher	5/2#				
45	07-17-2019	7th race	3	Off the Record (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Sloppy	1 M	R Brisset	2/1#	W	6.6	3.6	2.6
46	07-17-2019	8th race	7	Break Curfew (KY)	Clm	Dirt Muddy	7 Furl	C C Brown	5/2#	P		3.3	2.9
47	07-17-2019	9th race	6	Talk Veuve to Me (KY)	Alw Op CDirt Muddy	6 Furl	R Brisset	1/1#	S			2.7

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	47	14	13	12	29.7%	$84	$94	$-10	-11%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					82.9%	$285.8	$282	$3.8	1%	103.4

MLFs less than 3-1 hit the board at 82.9% in the week 1 interesting to note you got a 10% return playing them to show per $2 show wager

You would usually expect to see 5% if you even saw a profit at all

Let's see how they do in week 2

TheOracle · 07-18-2019, 01:58 PM

Here are the MLFs less than 3-1 today at Saratoga before scratches

Code:

1	07-18-2019	1st race	4	Golden Tiger (KY)	Starter Allowance		Seven Furlongs			A M Stall Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
2	07-18-2019	3rd race	3	Fierce Lady (NY)	Stakes				Six Furlongs			D Magner	1/2#	Dirt
3	07-18-2019	4th race	2	Hes No Lemon (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And Three Eighth Miles	H G Motion	8/5#	Turf
4	07-18-2019	4th race	7	Everyonelovesjames (NY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And Three Eighth Miles	J E Sheppard	2/1#	Turf
5	07-18-2019	4th race	9	Extrordinary Jerry (FL)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And Three Eighth Miles	T A Pletcher	5/2#	Turf
6	07-18-2019	5th race	4	Barleewon (NY)	Maiden Special Weight			5.5 Furlongs			M Stidham	5/2#	Turf
7	07-18-2019	5th race	9	City Man (NY) (MTO)	Maiden Special Weight		5.5 Furlongs			C Clement	2/1#	Turf
8	07-18-2019	6th race	4	Smooth With a Kick (KY)	Maiden Special Weight		One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	8/5#	Dirt
9	07-18-2019	7th race	12	Wicked Grin (NY)	Maiden Claiming			5.5 Furlongs			C Clement	2/1#	Turf
10	07-18-2019	7th race	16	Seven Is Heaven(NY)(MTO)Maiden Claiming			5.5 Furlongs			L Rice		2/1#	Turf
11	07-18-2019	8th race	2	Spirit Animal (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And One Sixteenth Miles	C C Brown	2/1#	Turf
12	07-18-2019	8th race	2B	Value Proposition (GB)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One And One Sixteenth Miles	C C Brown	2/1#	Turf
13	07-18-2019	9th race	2	Hofburg (KY)		Allowance Optional Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	W I Mott	1/1#	Dirt
14	07-18-2019	10th race	1	Timely Tradition(NY)(MTOAllowance Optional Claiming	5.5 Furlongs			R Atras		2/1#	Turf
15	07-18-2019	10th race	1A	Hay Field (NY)(MTO)	Allowance Optional Claiming	5.5 Furlongs			L Rice		2/1#	Turf

Let's focus on #16 Seven Is Heaven in the 7th race

Code:

pick07-18-20191	07-18-2019	7th race	16	Seven Is Heaven (NY) (MTO)	Maiden Claiming	Five And One Half Furlongs	L Rice	2/1#	Turf

Let's see if Rice can get this one to the winners circle today!!!

Lemon Drop Husker · 07-18-2019, 02:57 PM

There is never anything wrong with MiLFs.

TheOracle · 07-20-2019, 02:31 PM

Week 1 was actually July 11th to July 14th at Saratoga so we will make the adjustment for the Morning Line Favorites (MLFs) less than 3-1

Code:

1	07-11-2019	1st race	7	Real Dan (NY)		Clm	Dirt Fast	1 3/16 MT A Pletcher	5/2#				
2	07-11-2019	2nd race	2	Sayyaaf (KY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	5.5 FurlC C Brown	6/5#	W	3.8	2.5	2.3
3	07-11-2019	3rd race	4	Potomac (KY)		Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C F Martin	2/1#				
4	07-11-2019	3rd race	6	Growth Engine (KY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	5/2#	P		5.9	3.2
5	07-11-2019	7th race	4	Giant Zinger (NY)	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/8 M	W I Mott	7/5#	S			2.9
6	07-11-2019	8th race	1	Shippy (KY)		Stakes	Dirt Muddy	6 Furl	D F ONeill	2/1#	S			2.4
7	07-11-2019	9th race	6	Call Paul (PA)		Stakes	Turf Yielding	5.5 FurlJ Servis	5/2#				
8	07-12-2019	1st race	5	French Revolution (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	T A Pletcher	8/5#				
9	07-12-2019	1st race	8	Oso Negro (KY)		Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	2/1#	P		3.7	2.6
10	07-12-2019	2nd race	13	Daddy Knows (NY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	L Rice		1/1#	W	3.5	2.4	2.1
11	07-12-2019	3rd race	3	Complicit (KY)		Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 MC C Brown	8/5#	S			2.4
12	07-12-2019	3rd race	4	Dream Passage (NY)	Alw Op CTurf Yielding	1 1/16 MB H Cox		5/2#	P		4.0	2.6
13	07-12-2019	5th race	2	Good Shabbos (KY)	Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	5/2#	P		3.7	2.9
14	07-12-2019	6th race	1	Felix in Fabula (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MB N Levine	8/5#	W	6.5	6.8	4.0
15	07-12-2019	6th race	1A	Curlin Road (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	1 1/16 MR R Rodriguez	8/5#	P		6.8	4.0
16	07-12-2019	7th race	15	Saloon Girl (NY)	Alw	Dirt Fast	5.5 FurlW A Ward	5/2#	P		3.7	3.1
17	07-12-2019	8th race	6	Doups Point (NY)	Alw Op CDirt Fast	1 1/8 M	C Clement	5/2#	S			2.1
18	07-13-2019	1st race	10	Shes Not Bluffing (NY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	R N Falcone Jr.	5/2#	P		2.7	2.2
19	07-13-2019	2nd race	5	Lindas Ballet (NY)	Mdn Clm	Turf Good	5.5 FurlL Rice		5/2#	W	9.2	4.2	3.5
20	07-13-2019	3rd race	2	Raging Whiskey (MD)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	D F ONeill	5/2#	S			2.4
21	07-13-2019	3rd race	3	Cucina (FL)		Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	M E Casse	8/5#				
22	07-13-2019	3rd race	5	By Your Side (KY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	E Kenneally	5/2#	W	4.8	3.2	2.3
23	07-13-2019	4th race	6	Zyramid (KY)		Mdn SpclDirt Fast	5.5 FurlS M Asmussen	8/5#	W	4.9	3.5	2.7
24	07-13-2019	5th race	1	Originator (KY)		Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlI R Wilkes	8/5#	W	5.8	3.3	2.5
25	07-13-2019	5th race	1A	Noble Freud (NY)	Alw	Turf Good	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	8/5#				
26	07-13-2019	8th race	6	Peaceful (KY)		Mdn SpclTurf Good	5.5 FurlJ Thomas	2/1#	W	7.4	3.4	2.5
27	07-13-2019	9th race	2	Rushing Fall (KY)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	9/5#	P		2.8	2.2
28	07-13-2019	9th race	4	Sistercharlie (IRE)	Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	8/5#	W	5.8	3.2	2.2
29	07-13-2019	9th race	6	Homerique (KY)		Stakes	Turf Good	1 1/8 M	C C Brown	5/2#	S			2.3
30	07-13-2019	10th race	5	Payne (KY)		Alw	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	C C Brown	6/5#	S			2.2
31	07-14-2019	1st race	9	Sweet Melania (KY)	Mdn SpclTurf Firm	1 1/16 MT A Pletcher	2/1#	W	5.2	3.9	3.2
32	07-14-2019	2nd race	3	Keeping the Peace (KY)	Clm	Dirt Fast	6 Furl	J Servis	5/2#	W	4.9	3.1	2.7
33	07-14-2019	3rd race	4	Crack Shot (NY)		Mdn SpclTurf Firm	5.5 FurlJ C Englehart	2/1#	S			2.6
34	07-14-2019	5th race	8	Positive Skew (KY)	Clm	Turf Firm	1 M	C C Brown	6/5#	S			2.5
35	07-14-2019	8th race	8	Catch a Bid (KY)	Alw Op CTurf Firm	1 1/16 MC C Brown	5/2#	P		3.0	2.6
36	07-14-2019	9th race	4	Break Even (KY)		Stakes	Turf Firm	5.5 FurlB H Cox		2/1#	W	4.2	3.3	2.5
37	07-14-2019	10th race	8	Mine the Coin (KY)	Mdn Clm	Dirt Fast	7 Furl	G Weaver	5/2#	P		2.8	2.4

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return					
lt 3-1	37	12	10	9	32.4%	$66	$74	$-8	-11%	
					
					WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
					83.7%	$230	$222	$8	3%	82.1

The win rate was at 32.4% and the show return was slightly higher at 11%