what factors does the public overlook

[nalley0710]

I was just curious as to what factors or scenarios you guys think that the public generally overlooks or avoid ?

[misscashalot]

Originally Posted by nalley0710

I was just curious as to what factors or scenarios you guys think that the public generally overlooks or avoid ?

They overlook all factors that the drf doesn't publish. There's nothing like compiling your own database combining data from charts and pp's, which Joe Shmo doesn't do.

[andymays]

The public pays way too much attention to the last race in the running lines of the PP's. Because of that factor they overlook just about everything else to one degree or another.

[badcompany]

In claiming races, the public often assumes that a dropdown is the class of the race. This often isn't the case. An example: when a horse is moved from condition races to claimers, the trainer or owner is sometimes delusional and puts the horse with claimers of greater ability. After a few races of not cashing checks, reality sinks in and the horse is moved down. The public then sees class that really isn't there.

[arno]

They understimate if horse ran against the track bias.
In TBreds they underestimate post position.

They overestimate workout times.
They emphasize morning line way too much.

Now who is they???

[Dave Schwartz]

Overlook? None. Someone, somewhere is voting every factor (with their dollars).

Over/under estimate? Many.


Dave Schwartz

[SMOO]

Originally Posted by arno

who is they???

I don't know but we need more of them.

[46zilzal]

It is situational. I love the media horse pumped up by the same sports writers who last week, were basketball analysts and then the week before told us all about their expertise in a big boxing match.

They hype these horses to unattainable status and then, of course, are dismayed when they often don't run to THEIR Hype. I recall a perfect situation at Oaklawn when Budroyale the claimer to classic performer shipped in and was showing signs of raggedness (his numbers said PLEASE give me a rest!) but the INFORMED news boys touted him without fail. It was easy to bet a Mott shipper and collect a nice price.

[Bochall]

Except for the big owners like Juddmonte, Phipps, Ramsey and others, most players ignore this factor. There are very few places that give you owner/trainer stats. I play NYRA almost exclusively and some combos are pure money in the right spot. George Weaver running a young Dogwood charge on the turf for the first time is a fine angle. The Zito/ Lapenta combo led to a bet on DaTara (i always try to beat a triple crown hopeful-the odds demand it). Dom Galluscio and Majesty Stud is another combo. One cannot get by on owner stats alone but they sure can eliminate a lot of handicapping in the right spot.

[nobeyerspls]

Originally Posted by nalley0710

I was just curious as to what factors or scenarios you guys think that the public generally overlooks or avoid ?

They overlook surface, the most important factor of all. On the flip side they overemphasize jockeys, the least important factor.

[TrifectaMike]

These are not handicapping factors, but instead interesting facts.

The sequence of LLW, and WWL have equal probability independent of your win percentage.

Example:

Probability of Winning = .3

P(LLW) = .21
P(WWL) = .21

Here is another:

If you know your long term percentage of winners, and would like to know the number of races you have to play with a confidence level of observing a winner is as follows:

N(#of races) = log(1 - Confidence Level)/log(1-p)

Example:

p = .30
Confidence Level .90

n = log(1 - .90)/log(1 - .3)
n = (approximately) 6





Mike

[toussaud]

without question IMHO the abaility / tendices of a jockey.

betters treat horses like machines.

[the_fat_man]

Whether some factor or other is being overlooked is not really of much interest. Most are playing the same way, and, as such, their focus is:

1) analytic: speed and pace figures; trainer stats, etc.

2) program oriented: database analysis

3) Guru influenced: Sartinistas, etc.

So one's speed/pace model can be better developed than most of the others out there or one may data mine better than most or one can be more creative in selecting pace lines that the rest but the difference here is only one of degree.

The only way to come up with other 'factors' is to utilize a different, unique even, MODEL. Plenty of better prices that way, too.

[rokitman]

Money

[Linny]

Many handicappers misjudge the class of the race they are handicapping. They don't get that OptCl races are BETTER than straight allowances. They figure that because the race has a grade that a horse exited lesser races can't run with them, when there are no legit "graded" horses in the race. (Bullsbay in the Whitney is the classic example.)

They dismiss the surface over which the races are run. Very few horses can carry their best form from track to track and surface to surface.