Saturday Long Shots

[Aner]

Picks for 2/14/15

Aqu 3-----#6 It's Perfect Too
Aqu 7-----#9 Town Kitty--------------------58.00, 13.20
Aqu 8-----#2 Make the Moment
Aqu 9-----#3 Betty Bing Bing--------------scratched

Lrl 6------#3 Spango
Lrl 8------#11 Disco Barbie

GP 2------#1 Tormenta Fiera
GP 3------#4 Silver Armer
GP 6------#10 Bourbon First
GP 8------#8 Boca Scuttlebutt
GP 9------#2 Takepointsandrun
GP 10-----#7 Galiana
GP 11-----#2 Coursegold
GP 12-----#2 Jrock

OP 2------#7 Corso's Law
OP 3------#1 Cautiouslyoptimistic
OP 4------#1 Launch Light
OP 5------#4 Saturdaynitelites-------------XXXX, 9.60
OP 6------#1 This Ones for Phil
OP 8------#3 The Pickett Factor------------28.00, 12.20
OP 10-----#9 Hall of Fame

FG 3------#4 Utopia's Virgin---------------scratched
FG 5------#5 Thats It Imleaving
FG 7------#2 Lahaina-----------------------31.20, 14.20
FG 11-----#6 Lunar Fog

SA 1------#3 Rich in Tradition-------------48.80, 18.00
SA 6------#4 Aw Gee
SA 9------#9 Morning Coffee


For the day:

win = 4/26
bet = $52
back = $166.00
profit= $114----------for the year =($19.80 gain)

place = 5/26
bet = $56
back = $67.20
profit = $15.20-----------for the year =($112.20 loss)

[Aner]

Originally Posted by pandy

Give us a rough idea of what criteria you're using to pick these longshots. Pace, class, etc?

The picks are based purely on pace numbers without concern for current form, class, trainers, jockeys, recency, trips, or competition. My method of determining pace values may be a little different than most. I consider all the races shown in the past performances and pick out the best pace number. If ten races are given, I am just as likely to use the last race as the most recent.

The pace numbers are adjusted for how fast the track plays. After getting each horses best pace number, I rank them in order. Next I see if any of the top 3 numbers belong to a horse that is 10:1 or higher on the morning line. If so, it is a play. If not, the race is passed.

[pandy]

You're on the right track, pace is the best longshot angle. I also had Town Kitty at Aqueduct yesterday, and, I also had Casual Elegance in the last race.

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/recent_winners.htm

I'll give you some advice. I think you're on the right track and you're longshots are doing okay, but you can do better. As may you know, I wrote a book called Pace Handicapping Longshots. Even if you're doing this with a computer, you should read that book. The methods that I used to pick these two $50 winners yesterday are in the book. In fact, both of these horses fit two of my longshot angles, my Pace Shape Method and ESR (Early Speed Rating).

I think you'll find if you use recent numbers only you'll do better. There's no question that going back and grabbing old pace lines will produce longshot winners, however, it also greatly reduces the win percentage, and ROI. If you run tests I believe you'll see that your ROI will go up if you concentrate on each horse's last 3 starts. Or you can average the last 3 or 4 starts. Anything older than that is counterproductive.

I've done a lot of research on what factors longshot winners have in common.

These two $50 horses that came in at Aqueduct yesterday, they are typical of top early pace longshot winners. The public, which is predominantly focused on speed figures, overlooks speed horses that get discouraged due to pace pressure in fast paced races, but they can improve significantly, especially in the lower class levels, if they get in a spot where the pace is not as hot.

[Aner]

Picks for 2/21/15

GP 1-----#2 Sportscaster
GP 4-----#5 Sheer Drama
GP 7-----#8 Believe in Cherie
GP 8-----#10 Ekati's Phaeton
GP 9-----#3 Artic North
GP 10----#11 Long On Value
GP 12----#11 Signature Look

Tam 4----#7 Diana's Comprise
Tam 5----#4 Beep Beep Beep
Tam 6----#2 Harveson
Tam 7----#9 Will Run for Beer
Tam 8----#5 Just Jebicah
Tam 9----#9 Run to Mama
Tam 10---#1 Galiana
Tam 11---#2 Proudroad to Glory

FG 1------#1 Bourbon N Boots (only one of entry)
FG 3------#4 Malacrianza
FG 7------#6 Samiam
FG 9------#11 Dreams Cut Short
FG 11-----#1 St. Joe Bay
FG 12-----#2 Metobyandmearle

SA 8------#7 Spirit Rules
SA 9------#7 Pay the Fine

[Aner]

Picks for 2/21/15

GP 1-----#2 Sportscaster------------------scratched
GP 4-----#5 Sheer Drama-----------------XXXX, 13.80
GP 7-----#8 Believe in Cherie
GP 8-----#10 Ekati's Phaeton-------------55.60, 21.80
GP 9-----#3 Artic North
GP 10----#11 Long On Value-------------23.40, 10.20
GP 12----#11 Signature Look

Tam 4----#7 Diana's Comprise-----------XXXX, 79.80
Tam 5----#4 Beep Beep Beep
Tam 6----#2 Harveson
Tam 7----#9 Will Run for Beer
Tam 8----#5 Just Jebicah------------------scratched
Tam 9----#9 Run to Mama
Tam 10---#1 Galiana
Tam 11---#2 Proudroad to Glory

FG 1------#1 Bourbon N Boots (only one of entry)
FG 3------#4 Malacrianza
FG 7------#6 Samiam
FG 9------#11 Dreams Cut Short
FG 11-----#1 St. Joe Bay
FG 12-----#2 Metobyandmearle

SA 8------#7 Spirit Rules
SA 9------#7 Pay the Fine

For the day:

win = 2/21
bet = $42
back = $79.00
profit= $37----------for the year =($56.80 gain)

place = 4/21
bet = $42
back = $125.60
profit = $83.60-----------for the year =($28.60 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 2/28/15

Aqu 1-----#4 Kitchi Warrior
Aqu 3-----#6 Shoutout
Aqu 5-----#8 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 6-----#9 Tarty to the Party
Aqu 7-----#7 Lane Allen
Aqu 9-----#2 Wild Ham

GP 2------#4 Silver Lucky Q
GP 3------#1 No One Is Like Me
GP 4------#6 Donworth
GP 8------#8 Danzatrice
GP 9------#2 Union Label
GP 10----#2 Senor Grits
GP 12----#4 Veya

OP 1------#4 Launch Light
OP 2------#6 Feathers Inthe Sky
OP 4------#6 Miss Nightlinger
OP 4------#10 Denali Inspired
OP 5------#9 Tosha Talifero
OP 7------#1 No Spin
OP 8------#1 Valid Bull (entry)
OP 9------#9 Shanks

FG 4------#12 Cajun Freud
FG 7------#10 Tiger Run
FG 9------#8 Bagration

SA 1------#8 Miltee
SA 7------#3 Midnight Miley

[Aner]

Picks for 2/28/15

Aqu 1-----#4 Kitchi Warrior
Aqu 3-----#6 Shoutout
Aqu 5-----#8 Leilani's Ticket
Aqu 6-----#9 Tarty to the Party---------------8.40, 3.60
Aqu 7-----#7 Lane Allen
Aqu 9-----#2 Wild Ham

GP 2------#4 Silver Lucky Q-------------------scratched
GP 3------#1 No One Is Like Me---------------scratched
GP 4------#6 Donworth------------------------scratched
GP 8------#8 Danzatrice-----------------------scratched
GP 9------#2 Union Label----------------------cancelled
GP 10----#2 Senor Grits----------------------cancelled
GP 12----#4 Veya-----------------------------cancelled

OP 1------#4 Launch Light---------------------cancelled
OP 2------#6 Feathers Inthe Sky--------------cancelled
OP 4------#6 Miss Nightlinger-----------------cancelled
OP 4------#10 Denali Inspired-----------------cancelled
OP 5------#9 Tosha Talifero--------------------cancelled
OP 7------#1 No Spin---------------------------cancelled
OP 8------#1 Valid Bull (entry)----------------cancelled
OP 9------#9 Shanks---------------------------cancelled

FG 4------#12 Cajun Freud
FG 7------#10 Tiger Run
FG 9------#8 Bagration------------------------scratched

SA 1------#8 Miltee
SA 7------#3 Midnight Miley


For the day:

win = 1/10
bet = $20
back= $8.40
loss = $11.60----------for the year =($45.20 gain)

place = 1/10
bet = $20
back = $3.60
loss = $16.40-----------for the year =($44.00 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 3/7/15

Aqu 2-----#6 Here's Trance
Aqu 5-----#1 Rockin Alli
Aqu 7-----#11 Ulations
Aqu 10----#10 Bit Bustin

GP 1------#6 Concert Pianist
GP 3------#2 Undercover Kitten
GP 6------#6 Senor Grits
GP 8------#10 Salsa Dog
GP 9------#2 Call Me Crazy
GP 11-----#5 Talon's of Tuscany
GP 12-----#10 Boca Scuttlebutt

Tam 2-----#3 Rockin Donovan
Tam 3-----#10 Indy Silver Bullet
Tam 6-----#1 Princess Dinah
Tam 7-----#7 Financial Freedom
Tam 10----#10 Lori's Store

FG 3------#5 Dynamic Royal
FG 4------#3 H an F's Sensation
FG 5------#6 Bisque
FG 10-----#4 Halos Forever

OP 1------#5 Wingate Hall
OP 4------#7 Feathers Inthe Sky
OP 5------#5 Plenty Elusive
OP 7------#2 All About Ashley

SA 1------#7 Congregationalist
SA 2------#7 Overcomer
SA 3------#7 Dad's Princess
SA 8------#3 Singing Kitty
SA 9------#2 Outside Nashville
SA11-----#8 You Know I Know

[Aner]

Picks for 3/7/15

Aqu 2-----#6 Here's Trance
Aqu 5-----#1 Rockin Alli
Aqu 7-----#11 Ulations
Aqu 10----#10 Bit Bustin

GP 1------#6 Concert Pianist
GP 3------#2 Undercover Kitten
GP 6------#6 Senor Grits
GP 8------#10 Salsa Dog
GP 9------#2 Call Me Crazy
GP 11-----#5 Talon's of Tuscany
GP 12-----#10 Boca Scuttlebutt

Tam 2-----#3 Rockin Donovan
Tam 3-----#10 Indy Silver Bullet
Tam 6-----#1 Princess Dinah
Tam 7-----#7 Financial Freedom
Tam 10----#10 Lori's Store---------------------scratched

FG 3------#5 Dynamic Royal
FG 4------#3 H an F's Sensation
FG 5------#6 Bisque
FG 10-----#4 Halos Forever

OP 1------#5 Wingate Hall-----------------------42.40, 21.80
OP 4------#7 Feathers Inthe Sky
OP 5------#5 Plenty Elusive----------------------scratched
OP 7------#2 All About Ashley-------------------XXXX, 11.80

SA 1------#7 Congregationalist------------------38.00, 14.60
SA 2------#7 Overcomer-------------------------50.60, 16.60
SA 3------#7 Dad's Princess
SA 8------#3 Singing Kitty-----------------------41.60, 12.40
SA 9------#2 Outside Nashville
SA11-----#8 You Know I Know

For the day:

win = 4/28
bet = $56
back= $172.60
gain = $116.60----------for the year =($161.80 gain)

place = 5/28
bet = $56
back = $77.20
gain = $21.20-----------for the year =($22.80 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 3/14/15

Aqu 6-----#4 Breakin the Fever
Aqu 7-----#8 Keltic Fighter

Tam 2-----#4 Sumo
Tam 5-----#7 Rockin Rosie
Tam 6-----#9 Pure Luxury
Tam 10----#8 Gabriels Joy
Tam 11----#8 Unspoken Rule

GP 2------#2 Tricky Woman
GP 3------#3 Mitote
GP 4------#2 Coco's Wildcat
GP 6------#4 Thunderinwillie
GP 7------#1 Navajo Kitten
GP 9------#6 Flashy Jewel
GP 10----#6 My Storm Tropper
GP 12----#2 Easily the Won

FG 3------#5 Sweet Li Winning
FG 8------#2 Sweet Daddy
FG 10----#9 Blame Angel
FG 11----#5 Clevius

OP 1------#12 Lake Creek
OP 3------#9 Cov
OP 4------#7 Dr. Shipley
OP 5------#10 Graceful Rage
OP 6------#9 Bling it On Baby
OP 11----#2 Doritoz

SA 1------#5 River Lemon
SA 6------#3 Small Town Cop
SA 8------#1 Legacy
SA 9------#4 Cool Moves

DeD 7----#6 Blue Parading
DeD 8----#6 Snuck a Song
DeD 9----#11 All About Interest
DeD 11---#3 Mr Bluegrass Music
DeD 12---#3 Given Word

[FakeNameChanged]

Aner,thanks for posting your l.s. picks. Did you say you're using pace numbers? My longshot picks revolve around Speed improvement and or pace improvement. I use the Daily Racing program's speed numbers and pace numbers at similar distances. my last race should have been in last 35 days(five weeks). The previous race at similar distance doesn't matter to me. i like to see double digit improvement in speed or pace. And preferably only one big one per race, or maybe two contenders. I've found it works as well for speed improv. using Beyers or DRF speed ratings. I happen to like the Daily Programs pace numbers as well. Sorry to be so verbose. Whosonfirst

[Aner]

Picks for 3/14/15

Aqu 6-----#4 Breakin the Fever-------------16.20, 4.60
Aqu 7-----#8 Keltic Fighter

Tam 2-----#4 Sumo
Tam 5-----#7 Rockin Rosie------------------46.00, 16.80
Tam 6-----#9 Pure Luxury
Tam 10----#8 Gabriels Joy
Tam 11----#8 Unspoken Rule

GP 2------#2 Tricky Woman
GP 3------#3 Mitote
GP 4------#2 Coco's Wildcat
GP 6------#4 Thunderinwillie
GP 7------#1 Navajo Kitten
GP 9------#6 Flashy Jewel
GP 10----#6 My Storm Tropper
GP 12----#2 Easily the Won

FG 3------#5 Sweet Li Winning
FG 8------#2 Sweet Daddy-------------------scratched
FG 10----#9 Blame Angel--------------------33.80, 13.20
FG 11----#5 Clevius

OP 1------#12 Lake Creek
OP 3------#9 Cov
OP 4------#7 Dr. Shipley
OP 5------#10 Graceful Rage
OP 6------#9 Bling it On Baby
OP 11----#2 Doritoz---------------------------scratched

SA 1------#5 River Lemon
SA 6------#3 Small Town Cop
SA 8------#1 Legacy
SA 9------#4 Cool Moves

DeD 7----#6 Blue Parading
DeD 8----#6 Snuck a Song
DeD 9----#11 All About Interest
DeD 11---#3 Mr Bluegrass Music----------------scratched
DeD 12---#3 Given Word

For the day:

win = 3/31
bet = $62
back= $96.00
gain = $34.00---------for the year =($195.80 gain)

place = 3/31
bet = $62
back = $34.60
loss = $27.40-----------for the year =($50.20 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 3/21/15

Aqu 2-----#9 Pura Vita Zen
Aqu 8-----#4 Conspiracy

GP 3------#3 Buongiorna
GP 4------#5 Running Alone
GP 5------#4 How About That
GP 5------#7 Smoking the Field
GP 7------#7 Best Behavior
GP 8------#4 Jamaalaree
GP 9------#10 Adirondack Posse
GP 11-----#3 Yuzuru
GP 12-----#5 Over and Back

Tam 1-----#5 Hashtag Giddy Up
Tam 2-----#7 Effortlessly
Tam 3-----#8 Secret Stash
Tam 5-----#3 Double Check
Tam 6-----#10 Wild Kiss
Tam 11----#4 Sunny Forest

OP 1------#8 Red Lead
OP 2------#1 It's Amore
OP 4------#1 Mr. Obeso
OP 7------#10 Rprettyboyfloyd
OP 8------#10 Gratzie
OP 10-----#4 Tough N Trashy

TP 3------#4 Mountian Gal
TP 5------#7 Fayegotaway
TP 6------#6 Twisted Zing
TP 7------#7 Jaz N Tap
TP 8------#4 Midnight Decision

FG 2------#1 Rail's Genuine Boy
FG 3------#8 Ole Doc
FG 5------#2 Runaway Bay
FG 7------#6 Indian Wind
FG 8------#9 Santorini Sky
FG 10-----#10 Cassiengracie

SA 3------#5 Bob Consultation
SA 5------#3 Mahee
SA 9------#3 Yoked

[Aner]

Picks for 3/21/15

Aqu 2-----#9 Pura Vita Zen
Aqu 8-----#4 Conspiracy

GP 3------#3 Buongiorna
GP 4------#5 Running Alone
GP 5------#4 How About That------------------10.80, 4.80
GP 5------#7 Smoking the Field
GP 7------#7 Best Behavior
GP 8------#4 Jamaalaree
GP 9------#10 Adirondack Posse----------------XXXX, 6.00
GP 11-----#3 Yuzuru
GP 12-----#5 Over and Back

Tam 1-----#5 Hashtag Giddy Up
Tam 2-----#7 Effortlessly
Tam 3-----#8 Secret Stash----------------------scratched
Tam 5-----#3 Double Check
Tam 6-----#10 Wild Kiss
Tam 11----#4 Sunny Forest

OP 1------#8 Red Lead
OP 2------#1 It's Amore
OP 4------#1 Mr. Obeso
OP 7------#10 Rprettyboyfloyd
OP 8------#10 Gratzie
OP 10-----#4 Tough N Trashy

TP 3------#4 Mountian Gal----------------------scratched
TP 5------#7 Fayegotaway
TP 6------#6 Twisted Zing
TP 7------#7 Jaz N Tap
TP 8------#4 Midnight Decision-----------------scratched

FG 2------#1 Rail's Genuine Boy
FG 3------#8 Ole Doc--------------------------XXXX, 24.00
FG 5------#2 Runaway Bay
FG 7------#6 Indian Wind
FG 8------#9 Santorini Sky
FG 10-----#10 Cassiengracie

SA 3------#5 Bob Consultation-----------------XXXX, 9.40
SA 5------#3 Mahee-----------------------------scratched
SA 9------#3 Yoked


For the day:

win = 1/32
bet = $64
back= $10.80
loss = $53.20---------for the year =($142.60 gain)

place = 4/32
bet = $64
back = $54.20
loss = $9.80-----------for the year =($60.00 loss)

[Aner]

Picks for 3/28/15

Aqu 2-----#2 Scorpion's Touch
Aqu 5-----#8 Life's a Roar
Aqu 6-----#7 Ulations
Aqu 7-----#5 Back Forty
Aqu 9-----#11 Keltic Fighter

Tam 4-----#3 Exchanging Glances
Tam 6-----#6 Canna Red
Tam 10----#10 Where's That Cat

GP 1------#4 Hard Enough
GP 1------#5 Interpol
GP 3------#8 Diamond Eye
GP 7------#9 Strike Em Down
GP 8------#3 Brothersofthetime
GP 10-----#6 Baffle Me

FG 1------#10 Even Street
FG 4------#7 Safari Clamari
FG 6------#7 Brilliant Interest
FG 7------#6 Bluffalatta
FG 9------#5 Danette
FG 13-----#12 Fort Wagner

OP 3------#3 Sconnie Nation
OP 4------#5 Golden Moon
OP 5------#1 Right Squall
OP 8------#3 Dynamacho
OP 9------#1 Wolf City
OP 10-----#3 Everything Bling

SA 6------#6 Kill Shot