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09-03-2018, 06:28 AM
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#1
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Top Horse Analytics: 09/03/2018 Free Pick of Day - DMR, GP
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09-03-2018, 07:33 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Augenj
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Augenj,
Curious as to your choice in Del Mar's 2nd race,  Shesluckythatway at 20/1? I see she has a lot of back class, and an improving speed pattern. The  beat her in last by 3-1/4, which isn't insurmountable. Always like to hear what someone looks for when they pick a longshot. Does your W flag stand for wide? It looks like the  Choc Goddess &  Tiger Mom are the only "consistent" early types in this sprint. Thanks.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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09-03-2018, 11:14 AM
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#3
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Augenj,
Curious as to your choice in Del Mar's 2nd race, Shesluckythatway at 20/1? I see she has a lot of back class, and an improving speed pattern. The beat her in last by 3-1/4, which isn't insurmountable. Always like to hear what someone looks for when they pick a longshot. Does your W flag stand for wide? It looks like the Choc Goddess & Tiger Mom are the only "consistent" early types in this sprint. Thanks. |
First, the "W" stands for Best Workouts as calculated by my computer. The "W" algorithm looks at the past X workouts depending on the track's last year data base. If the past 3 workouts produced more winners and ROI, then the program looks at the past 3 for the current year and so on. Some of the "W" top horses have produced big winners in the past but very infrequently.
The other "Best" flags are (J)ockey, (T)rainer, (S)peed, (F)inish, (E)arnings, (L)ead, and (C)loser. All of these have their own algorithms based upon last year's data base. I probably should post these definitions along with the link in these free picks. One other thing I've been doing recently is to use the top horse with the highest morning line odds for the free pick. Over time, they probably will be better than those odds although maybe not profitable. I wouldn't hesitate to use them in the verticals though - Trifecta, Superfecta, etc.
Last edited by Augenj; 09-03-2018 at 11:29 AM.
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09-03-2018, 04:05 PM
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#4
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Top Horse Analytics
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 12,303
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"I probably should post these definitions along with the link in these free picks."
I already do. 
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09-03-2018, 04:59 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Augenj
First, the "W" stands for Best Workouts as calculated by my computer. The "W" algorithm looks at the past X workouts depending on the track's last year data base. If the past 3 workouts produced more winners and ROI, then the program looks at the past 3 for the current year and so on. Some of the "W" top horses have produced big winners in the past but very infrequently.
The other "Best" flags are (J)ockey, (T)rainer, (S)peed, (F)inish, (E)arnings, (L)ead, and (C)loser. All of these have their own algorithms based upon last year's data base. I probably should post these definitions along with the link in these free picks. One other thing I've been doing recently is to use the top horse with the highest morning line odds for the free pick. Over time, they probably will be better than those odds although maybe not profitable. I wouldn't hesitate to use them in the verticals though - Trifecta, Superfecta, etc.
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Thanks to the W explanation. So this pick at 20-1 is about the workouts, see original question.
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