Bring Hong Kong handicap racing model to U.S.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Seems to me the OP's model in post #1 would have the same horses running against each other every time. The model would need a larger participating population so that Class 1 races don't have the same 14 horse field every time they race.

Seemed that way to me anyhow.

That's a valid point. To do it right you need a lot more than 80 horses. But you have to start somewhere. So maybe three classes to start with 84 horses. That at least gives you two sets of horses for each class. Don't forget, dome horses will move up and some down. Plus they might carry different weights from one race to the next which changes the competitive nature. If a horse is a runaway winner it will either move up or carry more weight.

Also tracks would have to sweeten the pot by creating incentives for winning the meeting championship -- horses, owners, jocks, and trainers.

[sour grapes]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Seems to me the OP's model in post #1 would have the same horses running against each other every time. The model would need a larger participating population so that Class 1 races don't have the same 14 horse field every time they race.

Seemed that way to me anyhow.

this guy highnote was gonna open a track in the middle of nowhere last year with cheap horses owned by the track,he lives in a fantasy world of horseracing that will never come back to what it once was.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by steveb

the hk bettors can get good rebates, that would lessen the over rounds for them.
but if you are outside hk, and betting into their pools via comingling then are you disadvantaged because u don't get those rebates?
or do you?
your rationale of....."Simply because the odds displayed already account for the take-out removal.", overlooks the fact that the less rake then the bigger the dividend.

The local rebates may not be as significant as those the HK bettors receive but they are available.

Of course, we all know that if the take-out is lower the return will be higher! That’s pretty obvious.

However, you took my statement out of context. Those viewing the tote board can usually distinguish the difference in value between an entry at 2/1 versus 4/1. That being said, they also know that those odds (whatever they might be) show exactly what the return will be because the take-out has already been removed from the pools. The rationale I’m using for a “play” or perhaps a “pass” is based on the value at hand.

Originally Posted by Nitro

First of all while Hong Kong has a 17.5% take-out in the mutual pools and 25% across the exotics, only those with winning bets need to concern themselves with the take-out. Even then, those smart enough can usually rationalize the value of their potential wagers by simply using the odds of their selected entries as a barometer for making a successful play. Why? Simply because the odds displayed already account for the take-out removal.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by sour grapes

this guy highnote was gonna open a track in the middle of nowhere last year with cheap horses owned by the track,he lives in a fantasy world of horseracing that will never come back to what it once was.

A cheap track in the middle of nowhere would have low infrastructure/fixed costs. There would be no physical plant to maintain. All betting would be online. That idea was not too bad. It's not as good as creating a hybrid U.S./HK system.

I have not heard anyone offer better ideas. The only one I ever hear is lower track takeout. I agree lower takeouts would help, but tracks, horsemen, and gov don't want lower takeouts.

In 1997 I got the idea for a betting exchange and tried raising money, but was threatened with jail time if I ran an online site that allowed small bettors to act like bookmakers. That's how the industry treats innovators.

Let's hear your great ideas to turn the industry around, grow handle, and increase on-track attendance. I can't wait to hear them! Hell, maybe I will even like them!

You can criticize those who try to find creative ways to improve the industry or you can make some suggestions of your own. Doing nothing but complaining and criticizing means you're part of the problem and not part of the solution.

Arkansas Derby is tomorrow, big KY Derby preps coming up, and Derby is just a few weeks away. I will not be betting any of them. I probably won't even watch them, and I can't even name one KY Derby contender. I'm more interested in this Sunday at Hong Kong.

Enjoy the weekend! Best of luck to you!

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by sour grapes

this guy highnote was gonna open a track in the middle of nowhere last year with cheap horses owned by the track,he lives in a fantasy world of horseracing that will never come back to what it once was.

I wouldn't discourage anybody from sharing their ideas.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by highnote

I have not heard anyone offer better ideas. The only one I ever hear is lower track takeout. I agree lower takeouts would help, but tracks, horsemen, and gov don't want lower takeouts.

Let's hear your great ideas to turn the industry around, grow handle, and increase on-track attendance. I can't wait to hear them! Hell, maybe I will even like them!

You can criticize those who try to find creative ways to improve the industry or you can make some suggestions of your own. Doing nothing but complaining and criticizing means you're part of the problem and not part of the solution.

Arkansas Derby is tomorrow, big KY Derby preps coming up, and Derby is just a few weeks away. I will not be betting any of them. I probably won't even watch them, and I can't even name one KY Derby contender. I'm more interested in this Saturday at Hong Kong.

Enjoy the weekend! Best of luck to you!

highnote if I may add to the discussion. The only thing I know about Hong Kong racing is that I can spell Hong Kong without Google. My points will not be so much about your ideas but about coming to terms with reality. This thread and the others you have are filled with the tone that if you can convince people that your idea is a good one that something will happen or that it is a beginning. It is common on the internet whether it is this site or a comment on YouTube or Facebook for people to think their posts are "important". The notion that since one is posting the post is seen by the entire internet or that you have the same exposure as a guest commentator on CNN or Fox News. I have been guilty of it myself. I am not saying new ideas and discussion aren't a good idea but if people aren't buying what you are selling it does not mean that now your ideas won't take shape in the real world. In my opinion the reality is that these ideas have little to no chance of taking place in the real world. Not because the people here are dumb or narrow minded. There are active participants on this board who do work directly in the racing industry. There are also a lot of people (I think) who may be very involved in the industry but are silent viewers of PaceAdvantage. My point is there is nothing to lead me to believe that one of these people is going to say, " Yes I am going to do what it takes to get the money and the resources for a long term goal to fundamentally change the way racing is done in the US and base it on the Hong Kong model!". I don't think that some one of enormous resources like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos or the Kardashian sisters are going to have an Edison moment and go, "Ah ha, I will invest my money and get people on board and have a 5 year no a 10 year goal of making racing what it should be".



To be clear I am not putting down your ideas I just think you need to get more with reality. What is reality? As I see it,



Racing is on the decline in the US.
In the coming years more racetracks will close.

Racing will not collapse and die though because there is still a lot of money wagered and more importantly a lot of the people directly involved in racing are very wealthy. Even if some states ban it due to the animal rights issues I believe it will still survive.


Thank you for your time.

[highnote]

Thank you, 098poi.

I mostly agree with everything you wrote below: Racing is in decline. Tracks will go out of business. Racing will always exist.

I am a realist, but am not afraid to think big, to think creatively, and to think entrepreneurally. (If that's a word?)

I put my ideas here on PA in HOPES that someone in the industry will say, "Hey, there is some merit to the idea. Let's tweak it and maybe it will help our bottom line?" Or maybe someone here on PA will actually like the ideas and try to make a difference -- like when I started writing about the need for a horseplayer's cooperative. That idea turned into War Room discussions thanks to PA Mike. Then the War Room discussions turned into HANA. HANA took a lot of criticism and had a lot of naysayers, but the HANA founders believed change was needed and believed they could make a difference. They were right.

Come to think of it, when I was on the board of HANA I tried to convince them that HANA needed to try to buy a racetrack and make it TOTALLY horseplayer friendly. It was a longshot, but imagine if we could have pulled it off! I think Thistledown was for sale at the time. I still think a horseplayer owned track makes sense. sour grapes can have a field day with that one!

As John Lennon once wrote, "Only people can change the world." It has to start somewhere. I do NOT expect track executives to coming running to me and say, "Hey, you are a genius. We want to hire you to turn around our business." However, if my ideas can prime the pump and get people excited by the possibilities (like with HANA) and they become motivated to create change, then I have contributed something worthwhile.

Keeping my ideas in my head helps no one. If not for people like me what would sour grapes have to complain about? If nothing else I give him a raison d'etre.

Originally Posted by 098poi

highnote if I may add to the discussion. The only thing I know about Hong Kong racing is that I can spell Hong Kong without Google. My points will not be so much about your ideas but about coming to terms with reality. This thread and the others you have are filled with the tone that if you can convince people that your idea is a good one that something will happen or that it is a beginning. It is common on the internet whether it is this site or a comment on YouTube or Facebook for people to think their posts are "important". The notion that since one is posting the post is seen by the entire internet or that you have the same exposure as a guest commentator on CNN or Fox News. I have been guilty of it myself. I am not saying new ideas and discussion aren't a good idea but if people aren't buying what you are selling it does not mean that now your ideas won't take shape in the real world. In my opinion the reality is that these ideas have little to no chance of taking place in the real world. Not because the people here are dumb or narrow minded. There are active participants on this board who do work directly in the racing industry. There are also a lot of people (I think) who may be very involved in the industry but are silent viewers of PaceAdvantage. My point is there is nothing to lead me to believe that one of these people is going to say, " Yes I am going to do what it takes to get the money and the resources for a long term goal to fundamentally change the way racing is done in the US and base it on the Hong Kong model!". I don't think that some one of enormous resources like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos or the Kardashian sisters are going to have an Edison moment and go, "Ah ha, I will invest my money and get people on board and have a 5 year no a 10 year goal of making racing what it should be".



To be clear I am not putting down your ideas I just think you need to get more with reality. What is reality? As I see it,



Racing is on the decline in the US.
In the coming years more racetracks will close.

Racing will not collapse and die though because there is still a lot of money wagered and more importantly a lot of the people directly involved in racing are very wealthy. Even if some states ban it due to the animal rights issues I believe it will still survive.


Thank you for your time.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by 098poi

..... My point is there is nothing to lead me to believe that one of these people is going to say, " Yes I am going to do what it takes to get the money and the resources for a long term goal to fundamentally change the way racing is done in the US and base it on the Hong Kong model!". I don't think that some one of enormous resources like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos or the Kardashian sisters are going to have an Edison moment and go, "Ah ha, I will invest my money and get people on board and have a 5 year no a 10 year goal of making racing what it should be"....

Another big stumbling block is the unanswered question of whether or not racing fans and more importantly non-racing fans would embrace such a change. Hard to get someone to invest big money in a concept that may or may not work. Personally I can't see a change in US gambling habits based on the HK model.

[thaskalos]

IMO...we take this site much too seriously at times. SO WHAT if someone presents ideas here that are deemed "impractical". Even an impractical idea gives us something horse-related to talk about here...and talking about horses is what this site is all about. Look, folks...we ain't gonna change the game here...no matter how "practical" our conversation topics may be. All we have here is a bunch of guys and gals with a common interest...and we gather here so we can infuse some amusement into the idle moments of our day. Let's not confuse this with those serious-minded "think tanks"...where leaders of science and industry get together in order to "reshape" our world. In life...we "do" some things...and we also "dream" of doing others things...which we know full-well that we'll probably never be able to accomplish. But we keep dreaming just the same...because dreaming adds a flavor to life without which it would be rather bland. Highnote is a dreamer...and his ideas are impractical. Neither the horseplayers nor HANA will ever buy and operate a "player-friendly" racetrack...nor will the Hong Kong methods of operation ever be employed by our local tracks. But...does that mean that we should start accusing poor Highnote of wasting our time here? If it weren't for Highnote's high-flying ideas...all we'd have to talk about here would be Winx's upcoming final race...and that isn't a better investment of our "valuable time"...IMO.

Our game is in serious decline...and our horse-related conversations are subsequently in decline, as well. If we start criticizing the dreamers among us...then our conversations here will decline even further...and then we'll have to seek refuge over at the off-topics section of this site. And, believe me...that ain't gonna be an improvement.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Another big stumbling block is the unanswered question of whether or not racing fans and more importantly non-racing fans would embrace such a change. Hard to get someone to invest big money in a concept that may or may not work. Personally I can't see a change in US gambling habits based on the HK model.

Smart start-up companies use the concept of Minimally Viable Product to test their business ideas. MVP means you go out with a simple model and test it in the real world or you go and talk to customers and get feedback. In other words, you have to get out of the office and talk to people or you have to get your product into the marketplace on a very small scale to see if it will get traction. Research how UBER did this. They didn't become a multi-billion dollar company overnight. They got far more pushback than my U.S./HK hybrid model ever got.

Remember, the United States put a man on the moon almost 50 years ago. So don't tell me the racetrack industry cannot be turned around. If you believe that then you are part of the problem -- or at the very least you are NOT part of the solution.

For a billionaire or multi-millionaire like Stronach (whichever he is) the costs for creating a handicap division would barely be a rounding error to his total expenditures. Every company worth their salt sets aside money for R&D.

Lack of vision and fear of change are the main challenges that have to be dealt with before the industry can turn itself around.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...we take this site much too seriously at times. SO WHAT if someone presents ideas here that are deemed "impractical". Even an impractical idea gives us something horse-related to talk about here...and talking about horses is what this site is all about. Look, folks...we ain't gonna change the game here...no matter how "practical" our conversation topics may be. All we have here is a bunch of guys and gals with a common interest...and we gather here so we can infuse some amusement into the idle moments of our day. Let's not confuse this with those serious-minded "think tanks"...where leaders of science and industry get together in order to "reshape" our world. In life...we "do" some things...and we also "dream" of doing others things...which we know full-well that we'll probably never be able to accomplish. But we keep dreaming just the same...because dreaming adds a flavor to life without which it would be rather bland. Highnote is a dreamer...and his ideas are impractical. Neither the horseplayers nor HANA will ever buy and operate a "player-friendly" racetrack...nor will the Hong Kong methods of operation ever be employed by our local tracks. But...does that mean that we should start accusing poor Highnote of wasting our time here? If it weren't for Highnote's high-flying ideas...all we'd have to talk about here would be Winx's upcoming final race...and that isn't a better investment of our "valuable time"...IMO.

Our game is in serious decline...and our horse-related conversations are subsequently in decline, as well. If we start criticizing the dreamers among us...then our conversations here will decline even further...and then we'll have to seek refuge over at the off-topics section of this site. And, believe me...that ain't gonna be an improvement.

Yes I agree. Dialogue is a good thing. I wasn't trying to shut highnote down. I think he got where I was coming from.

[highnote]

I appreciate your thoughts below, thas. Although, I disagree that my ideas are impractical. Difficult yes. Do you know how many people back in 1997 told me my idea of a betting exchange was impractical and that it sounded like a get rich scheme? Just about everyone. Unfortunately, I started doubting the idea myself. The idea was embraced in England and Flutter got the ball rolling. Then Betfair bought them and the rest is history.

What is so outlandish about horseplayers buying a racetrack? Where do you think VC money comes from or IP money? It comes from investors. There is no reason a bunch of horseplayers could not pool their money and make a serious run at buying or starting a track. Would it be risky? Hell yes. It would take a great, charismatic, and visionary leader who could convince investors s/he could make it work. Those people are rare. How many Steve Jobs are there? But there might be one out there right now? That's why I put these ideas out there. You never know who is going to come along and run with it.

There is a reason there are so many poor, unhappy, dissatisfied people in the world. They haven't figured out what life is about. They are constrained by their limited beliefs. They haven't figured out how to use the power they have -- which is limitless if you really think about it.

Again, to quote John Lennon: "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope someday you'll just us..."

Originally Posted by thaskalos

IMO...we take this site much too seriously at times. SO WHAT if someone presents ideas here that are deemed "impractical". Even an impractical idea gives us something horse-related to talk about here...and talking about horses is what this site is all about. Look, folks...we ain't gonna change the game here...no matter how "practical" our conversation topics may be. All we have here is a bunch of guys and gals with a common interest...and we gather here so we can infuse some amusement into the idle moments of our day. Let's not confuse this with those serious-minded "think tanks"...where leaders of science and industry get together in order to "reshape" our world. In life...we "do" some things...and we also "dream" of doing others things...which we know full-well that we'll probably never be able to accomplish. But we keep dreaming just the same...because dreaming adds a flavor to life without which it would be rather bland. Highnote is a dreamer...and his ideas are impractical. Neither the horseplayers nor HANA will ever buy and operate a "player-friendly" racetrack...nor will the Hong Kong methods of operation ever be employed by our local tracks. But...does that mean that we should start accusing poor Highnote of wasting our time here? If it weren't for Highnote's high-flying ideas...all we'd have to talk about here would be Winx's upcoming final race...and that isn't a better investment of our "valuable time"...IMO.

Our game is in serious decline...and our horse-related conversations are subsequently in decline, as well. If we start criticizing the dreamers among us...then our conversations here will decline even further...and then we'll have to seek refuge over at the off-topics section of this site. And, believe me...that ain't gonna be an improvement.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by 098poi

Yes I agree. Dialogue is a good thing. I wasn't trying to shut highnote down. I think he got where I was coming from.

Absolutely. You made excellent points and I appreciate you taking the time to think about it.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by highnote

I appreciate your thoughts below, thas. Although, I disagree that my ideas are impractical. Difficult yes. Do you know how many people back in 1997 told me my idea of a betting exchange was impractical and that it sounded like a get rich scheme? Just about everyone. Unfortunately, I started doubting the idea myself. The idea was embraced in England and Flutter got the ball rolling. Then Betfair bought them and the rest is history.

What is so outlandish about horseplayers buying a racetrack? Where do you think VC money comes from or IP money? It comes from investors. There is no reason a bunch of horseplayers could not pool their money and make a serious run at buying or starting a track. Would it be risky? Hell yes. It would take a great, charismatic, and visionary leader who could convince investors s/he could make it work. Those people are rare. How many Steve Jobs are there? But there might be one out there right now? That's why I put these ideas out there. You never know who is going to come along and run with it.

There is a reason there are so many poor, unhappy, dissatisfied people in the world. They haven't figured out what life is about.

Again, to quote John Lennon: "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope someday you'll just us..."

Horseplayers buying a racetrack? The horseplayers are lucky if they can pay their rent on time.

Sorry if I appear overly pessimistic, Highnote. But I've been around this game a long time too...and I've found little in it to be optimistic about. We call it "our" game...but the game is run by others, who have an adversarial relationship with us. What's good for the tracks and the horsemen, is BAD for the horseplayers...and that's hardly the stuff that "optimism" is made of...IMO.

[highnote]

Where are all the dreamers? Where are all the John Lennon's? Where are all the revolutionary thinkers and artists? I search for "Imagine" on youtube and the first thing that comes up is "Imagine" by Arianna Grande. How many people can even name her hits?

YouTube