|
06-11-2015, 01:38 PM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Let's handicap 6/13 Churchill Race 2 (Sat. night)
At first glance, this race looks like a mess of worthy contenders. I wanted to see what the other opinions are, as someone wants my opinion and I'm determined to get this right.
The only horse I can eliminate with certainty is Bubsy Alley, because he's a cheap first time Flower Alley, and that isn't exactly a winning formula. Other than him, most of these horses hold a small chance.
What do you think?
BRIS PPs
Last edited by letswastemoney; 06-11-2015 at 01:41 PM.
|
|
|
06-11-2015, 03:44 PM
|
#2
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
|
Your link is bad .....
People should try this one.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
Why do you frequently favor Mdn races?
But, I do like your idea.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-11-2015 at 03:46 PM.
|
|
|
06-11-2015, 04:14 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
|
You're right I gave a bad link. I'm doing the whole Saturday night card for a friend. I had a good feel for the first race. This one is a bit harder.
But, I do favor maiden races more often than not though. Well, the 2 year old ones later in the year are easier. Horses can be eliminated through pedigree, trainer percentages with first timers and stuff like that.
When they get to 3 years old and up, like in this race, the horses with shaky form the previous year hang around, and the first time starters as 3 year olds are less trustworthy. So they get more difficult. Why would they take so long to make the racetrack? Then again, Zenyatta never started until she was a late 3 year old.
Anyways, why not choose more difficult races?
We aren't going to learn as much as a group looking at easy or comfortable ones. Might as well tackle the ones most people fear.
Last edited by letswastemoney; 06-11-2015 at 04:18 PM.
|
|
|
06-11-2015, 05:56 PM
|
#4
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
...
Anyways, why not choose more difficult races?
We aren't going to learn as much as a group looking at easy or comfortable ones. Might as well tackle the ones most people fear.
|
Well, there's not enough info for me in certain types of races which I avoid since I like the opportunity to bet if I'm going to handicap the race.
Again, I like your idea. I'm surprised more people don't do this.
|
|
|
06-11-2015, 11:57 PM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 75
|
I like the straight 1,7 as As then 1a,2,4,5,8 Bs. 3,6 were tosses.
#8 in here is a 1/2 bro to Commissioner, who of course runs later in card R8. Kellyn is good firsters but this dam only throws stout, no brilliance and Tiznow def doesn't help with the speed part. Figure he'll need one or two, perhaps try him back going 9F at SAR MSW.
Both Kings Knight and Enduring Hinor have shown ability on dirt and seemed to have gotten their regression in last race which augurs for forward improvement in this race today. Imbetterthangood also a bit of an in-and-horse so I'd look for him to run better today. He does have to give 7lbs to the field but he is the only 4yo in the field.
Muntij is one who can keep getting better for Peitz but may be most effective sprinting Down the road.
Interesting to see all the trainers Calumet are using these days. These have to be some of the first for both Romans and Rusty.
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 01:38 AM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
|
You're right - a mess of contenders - this race would be one that I'd probably enjoy using in a pick bet with a lot of numbers on it but making a win wager would prove a lot tougher for me.
But, I know the guy ahead of me labeled him a toss, yet I'm sort of interested in Guilty Streak if a win bet is the motif here.
I'm not sure I believe the 10-1 M/L will hold up, but maybe. There isn't anyone in here that looks like he ought take piles of money; no real 'horse to beat'.
This guy ran an awfully good debut getting beat under 4 lengths after spotting them about 20 early. He ran no friggin' good at all 3 weeks later in his second start... but... he is firing right back here in under 2 weeks and the colt took quite a bit of money for that poor effort.
Those signs point me to the very real possibility that something just went wrong somewhere along the course of the day and they got a non-effort. If he is up there near 10-1 and I had to make a win bet, I think I could probably do it on the premise that the last is not to be believed and this time we'll get the improved race off a solid debut that was expected last time.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 02:53 AM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Eh I just turned in my card analysis to my friend. True story, she paid $20 even though I only asked for $4...maybe she hit the wrong button on PayPal (lol).
Guilty Streak? His family seemed a bit turfy when I looked at what other horses the dam produced. That was my only concern. I'm on my phone. Maybe I'll look again in again bit.
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 03:00 AM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
|
Muntij ( the ) will get plenty of consideration from me on Saturday.
1. I like Trainer Peitz stretching out.
2. I like the improving Beyers.
3. Workout spacing is fine.
4. Running (4th) on Derby day may have been a positive learning experience. (At least that's what I thought Muntij said when interviewed after the race. )
__________________
One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 12:29 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 697
|
I think the will run well
Tough race though
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 01:56 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 8
|
cd 2
First glance contenders
1-2-5-8
|
|
|
06-12-2015, 02:39 PM
|
#11
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
|
I think Enduring Honor is improving and looked pretty good from his replays, seems to be trying throughout in each of his last few races.
Probably running the 8.5f in 105.5 +/-.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 06-12-2015 at 02:42 PM.
|
|
|
06-13-2015, 06:29 PM
|
#12
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
|
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
06-13-2015, 07:39 PM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
|
Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?
|
|
|
06-14-2015, 03:53 AM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?
|
I don't know about anyone else, but my online friend went to Churchill Downs to see American Pharoah parade, and she paid me $20 to get my analysis. Otherwise, maybe I'd have just watched.
If anyone wants to look at what I gave her, click on this link.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...it?usp=sharing
I thought my picks were fine. But, betting structure is a weak point...she ended up just doing place bets on my top picks anyway.
|
|
|
06-14-2015, 09:27 AM
|
#15
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,871
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Not Boycotting Churchill anymore?
|
Only exceptions - Derby day, and whenever they show enough sense to run a night card.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|