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01-12-2019, 02:41 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jk3521
I also have a feeling that he will announce that he will not choose to run in 2020, not that he will be impeached, though.
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Yeah it could be a variety of reasons.
Election-wise the wall is dead, his approval rating is doo-doo, and that's with a strong economy. If it slows...?
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Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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01-12-2019, 03:33 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 11,002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
I think Trump is less likely to run than win at this point...
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He’s not acting like he’s not running. Protecting his base with the shutdown.
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All I needed in life I learned from Gary Larson.
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01-14-2019, 09:54 AM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clocker
None of that matters. The presidency has become a personality contest, and Warren doesn't have a personality.
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she has the personality of iceberg lettuce.
Allan
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01-14-2019, 09:57 AM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
Bernie Sanders.
Just handicapping the race. Even money on Bernie would be fair odds. That may change as post time approaches.
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Bernie at evens. Hah.
He'd be an overlay at 10-1.
just no appeal to the liberal Democratic Party base.
Allan
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01-14-2019, 05:24 PM
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#65
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Librocubicularist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 10,466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
He'd be an overlay at 10-1.
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At this point they're all overlays at 10:1.
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Sapere aude
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01-14-2019, 05:38 PM
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#66
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Librocubicularist
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 10,466
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
just no appeal to the liberal Democratic Party base.
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In the 2016 Iowa caucus Bernie nearly came in first.
Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%)
In the 2016 New Hampshire primary
Bernie Sanders (60.14%), Hillary Clinton (37.68%)
Like I said, I'm just handicapping the race. Right now my morning line sees Bernie as the favorite. Of course favorites only win 1/3 of the time.
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Sapere aude
Last edited by Actor; 01-14-2019 at 05:41 PM.
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01-14-2019, 06:25 PM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,662
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
In the 2016 Iowa caucus Bernie nearly came in first.
Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%)
In the 2016 New Hampshire primary
Bernie Sanders (60.14%), Hillary Clinton (37.68%)
Like I said, I'm just handicapping the race. Right now my morning line sees Bernie as the favorite. Of course favorites only win 1/3 of the time.
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How could it be an old white male?
that is all that is wrong with this country....
it will be either Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, or Michelle 0bama
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01-14-2019, 08:32 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
In the 2016 Iowa caucus Bernie nearly came in first.
Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%)
In the 2016 New Hampshire primary
Bernie Sanders (60.14%), Hillary Clinton (37.68%)
Like I said, I'm just handicapping the race. Right now my morning line sees Bernie as the favorite. Of course favorites only win 1/3 of the time.
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Whoever generates the best grass roots stuff wins Iowa and New Hampshire loves loves underdogs.
Real horses will start running on Super Tuesday.
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Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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01-14-2019, 09:20 PM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Diez meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; two months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 4,355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Whoever generates the best grass roots stuff wins Iowa and New Hampshire loves loves underdogs.
Real horses will start running on Super Tuesday.
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New Hampshireites really love candidates who slog around the state begging for votes at Mary Lou's Diner in Hooksett or the VFW in Keene.Easy to do, most of the Granite State's million people live in the southern third of an 8000 square mile state, so if you don't see a candidate, it's because you didn't want to. Or you live in the poor,isolated White Mountains area up north.New Hampshire is more about winnowing the weak candidates as opposed to picking the winner.
__________________
"But don't ask me what I think of you, I might not give the answer that you want me to. "
Fleetwood Mac, Oh Well, Part 1 (1969)
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01-14-2019, 10:01 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44
New Hampshireites really love candidates who slog around the state begging for votes at Mary Lou's Diner in Hooksett or the VFW in Keene.Easy to do, most of the Granite State's million people live in the southern third of an 8000 square mile state, so if you don't see a candidate, it's because you didn't want to. Or you live in the poor,isolated White Mountains area up north.New Hampshire is more about winnowing the weak candidates as opposed to picking the winner.
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Good analysis.
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Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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01-15-2019, 09:30 AM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
In the 2016 Iowa caucus Bernie nearly came in first.
Hillary Clinton (49.8%), Bernie Sanders (49.6%)
In the 2016 New Hampshire primary
Bernie Sanders (60.14%), Hillary Clinton (37.68%)
Like I said, I'm just handicapping the race. Right now my morning line sees Bernie as the favorite. Of course favorites only win 1/3 of the time.
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Lets do a little handicapping shall we
Pros for Bernie:
-progressive agenda
-Popular in New England
Cons for Bernie
-age
-Not popular in large population states (out of the top 12 population states-Bernie only won Michigan in 2016)
-Not a Democrat
That doesn't sound like chalk to me.
Allan
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01-15-2019, 12:59 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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My guess is that the Democratic candidate is off the radar at this stage. All of the names being bandied about, I doubt any of them get the nomination. It could be like when Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere to get the nomination.
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01-15-2019, 01:03 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
My guess is that the Democratic candidate is off the radar at this stage. All of the names being bandied about, I doubt any of them get the nomination. It could be like when Jimmy Carter came out of nowhere to get the nomination.
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I think the big four right now are probably Biden, Beto, Harris, and Warren.
Kind of covers most of the wings of the Democrat party but who emerges out of that group is anybody's guess.
Bernie doesn't really seem to be a legit contender even if he enters at this point... he's kind of a victim or his own age and popularity at this point.
Biden's old too but he represents that corporatist establishment party that was Clinton, Obama, Kerry, Gore, Clinton, etc...
Its very likely Harris steals that wing though.
__________________
Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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01-15-2019, 02:05 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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Bernie won't even run. By the time the DNC blows the lid on all the sexual abuse in his campaign he won't dare.
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01-15-2019, 02:28 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadk66
Bernie won't even run. By the time the DNC blows the lid on all the sexual abuse in his campaign he won't dare.
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Certainly a possibility.
I'm not convinced he runs either and this would be an issue on the campaign trail.
There's certainly not a shortage of reasons why he wouldn't run.
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Dumbest timeline confirmed...
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