*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[green80]

Originally Posted by Winger

There is nothing wrong with that. That was only for the short-priced horses though. I'll keep watching it.

1.31 ROI is 1.31, I wouldn't care if its long or short priced horses. With short priced horses you would get more wins and fewer big swings in your bankroll. I am a rebate player and I like the churn for rebate purposes.

[NorCalGreg]

Canterbury is looking good today--well, I stopped looking after Belmont and Canterbury. A top pick @ 15-1, a Best Bet @ 12-1...long term those are profitable. I got a guy running a data base track by track--top picks over 10-1 show a big profit, albeit from a small sample size---so far.

Here's a good looking E-1 E-2 Speed Play as described on the website--he's also a top EARLY POWER by a nice gap and 6-1 ML 9th race @ Cby:

[RedMeansGo]

So I have been following this thread, and decided to get a copy of Pace View for the upcoming Saratoga meet, to give it a test drive. I purchase it, attempt to install it and get confirmation from NCG that it is not compatible with Mac OS. No, I did not inquire prior to purchasing, which I absolutely should have. Yes, I am a fool for not considering this. I didn't even ask for a refund, and NCG tells me there is no charge. What a stand up guy. I can't vouch for Pace View cause I can't use it, but I can tell you he's an honest businessman.

Best of luck to all.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by RedMeansGo

So I have been following this thread, and decided to get a copy of Pace View for the upcoming Saratoga meet, to give it a test drive. I purchase it, attempt to install it and get confirmation from NCG that it is not compatible with Mac OS. No, I did not inquire prior to purchasing, which I absolutely should have. Yes, I am a fool for not considering this. I didn't even ask for a refund, and NCG tells me there is no charge. What a stand up guy. I can't vouch for Pace View cause I can't use it, but I can tell you he's an honest businessman.

Best of luck to all.

Buy a copy of Parallels Desktop and you can run Windows on your Mac. That's the way I do it and have no problems!

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Here are tomorrow's consensus top picks.

BEL-6 SIMPLE LOVE - 7/5
BEL-8 DAD'S COPS - 4/5
BTP-5 BUNDLE OF FAITH - 9/5
BTP-8 BRETT'S BOY - 5/1
CBY-6 MINA LAKE - 7/2
DEL-5 RAPO - 6/1
DEL-8 QUALITY HEY - 5/2
EVD-3 KOHN'S TOP CAT - 7/2
EVD-4 THEBOTZAPOINTMENT - 3/1
EVD-6 CONNOR'S ACE - 9/5
FLX-7 ABOUNDING SPIRIT - 3/1
FLX-9 HARRIER HILL - 7/2
GPX-1 CRIME BUZZ - 5/2
GPX-9 BRITANNIA'S MOAT - 5/2
IND-2 PLAIN'S WARRIOR - 3/1
LAD-2 THREEPEAT - 2/1
LSX-7 ARTISTIC LICENSE - 6/5
LSX-8 SONORAN PEGASUS - 3/1
PEN-1 :1A: JOHANNA'S DELIGHT - 8/5
PEN-4 VICKSBURG BLUFFS - 6/1
PEN-5 RISKY GUY - 3/1
PID-2 THURMAN MERMAN - 6/1
PID-3 BOOGIE TOO - 7/2
PRM-2 IT'S THE SWEDED - 1/1
PRM-4 DAMARIS - 6/5
PRM-5 STREET PRANCER - 9/5

Overall it went 11/23 with a .95 ROI.

Horses less than or equal to 5/2 on the morning line went 7/13 with an ROI of 1.13.

[Winger]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

You'd get a lot of short-priced "action" anyway . Play around with it a little bit, you'll find some spot plays in there to your liking. I know you and greenie ,as well as myself are big spot play fans. Most of mine have to do with sprints up to a mile (1m= long sprint) and early power.

A customer came up with a formula for routes using late power + 50% EPS....the east-coast tracks he plays---he gets around 35% winners at all prices. Same gentleman whose e-mail I posted earlier in this thread, I think it was.

EDIT: I meant to mention this earlier---did anyone notice anything unusual in that race I posted at T-DOWN up above? Look at the quirin column--you don't see an S8 everyday.

I'll play with it. I've been looking for a high percentage method to play with my longshot method to help smooth out the fluctuations. The run-outs hurt.

Another idea I am floating is if I can validate these consensus picks, I might use them as key horses in exotics.

[Winger]

Lots of consensus picks for tomorrow's busy day.

ALB-8 SCIATICA - 6/1
APX-2 ONLY IN AMERICA - 3/1
APX-5 BULL MARKET RICH - 7/2
ARP-7 A J'S GRAND - 3/1
ASD-7 MAGNETIC JAZZ - 5/2
BEL-3 BOMB'S AWAY - 3/5
BEL-4 CLOONTIA - 1/1
BEL-8 STORM PROPHET - 9/5
BTP-2 :1A: SECOND TIME - 3/1
BTP-7 BE NICE - 4/1
CBY-9 BILTMORE BOOGIE - 4/5
CTX-4 LASTMANCHARITABLE - 8/1
EMD-3 COPY BEGONE - 5/2
EMD-5 LOOK ABOVE - 5/2
EVD-4 LA JUSTICE - 5/1
EVD-6 FOREST LAKE - 9/5
FPK-1 HOLYHOOT - 9/5
FPK-5 RENT A COP - 4/1
FPK-7 BOLD FORCE - 3/1
GPX-10 GELFENSTEIN - 9/2
IND-2 FAITHFUL NEIGBOR - 7/2
IND-5 BELLAMY'S VERDICT - 2/1
LRL-1 BILLY THE BULL - 8/5
LRL-5 CHANEL NUMBER ONE - 4/1
LSX-2 THE BUSINESS - 7/5
LSX-5 MEDAL OF COURAGE - 9/5
MDX-3 DAUGHTER DEREK - 9/2
MDX-5 SHORT OF MONEY - 6/1
MDX-6 RUNAWAY LION - 6/1
MDX-7 GRAND PULPIT - 7/1
MTH-2 A SIXTIES TUNE - 7/5
MTH-8 DON'S MARSH - 2/1
NPX-1 JUST WIN BABY - 7/5
NPX-4 BOSS BEGONE - 8/5
NPX-6 CHAMP'S LAW - 5/2
PEN-4 GLOVE'S OFF - 2/1
PEN-6 PEA SHOTER PRO - 2/1
PRM-8 NATIVE PRINCESS - 7/5
PRM-9 HEED TO SPEED - 8/5
TDN-1 INCITEMENT - 3/1
TDN-2 OLIVER'S BULL - 5/2
TDN-3 ISTRUE - 3/1
TDN-4 CAN'T GET ENOUGH - 5/2
TDN-5 GRADUATEWITHHONORS - 5/2
TDN-8 COMPULSIVE - 9/2
WOX-3 BLURRICAN - 2/1
WOX-3 TH ORIGINAL SCOTTY - 4/1
WOX-8 GETERDONEBUD - 4/1
WOX-9 SOMETHING AWESOME - 5/1

[NorCalGreg]

I may have actually spelled "ALBUEQUERQUE" properly...pretty darn close anyway. I had a spell-checker/grammar-corrector Chrome "app"...but after using the free version for a couple months without actually buying it---it started cutting me off. A message would come on the screen saying something like:

"YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 MISTAKES THIS WEEK" and it would shut off on me! I would have to actually think again!! It's horrible. I got so mad I deleted it---no piece of technology is gonna hold me hostage!

So now I'm looking for a new free spell-checker. One that's a little friendlier, less demanding.

BTW....to Red Means Go --thank you for the kind words which weren't coerced in any way --What was I going to do--Nail the guy for $35.00 for a program he accidentally ordered and can't use?

I never read everything either....I check the hi-lites, the cost, sounds good--yeh okay I'm in! Later on is when I find out more about it LOL.
Why do you all buy MACs anyway?

Okay now...let me get to my feel good story:

I'm up one night as I always am..and a guy sends me an email. He says he doesn't have PayPal, is it possible to just send me a money order, or cash?
Now, if you've never done internet business, you have no way of knowing this---but almost 100 out of 100 times, the 'No PayPal Guy" is trying some kind of scam to avoid actually buying whatever it is you are selling.

I'm not making that up, I'm not just an old scrooge...you can ask anyone you know who sells online. This is going to be in my online blog BTW.
It really irks me sometimes--I sell my program very inexpensively....and I still get some people who just don't want to pay for the dang thing.

I saw a guy steal an ice cream bar in the Dollar Store...so anything's possible. So getting back to my internet guy.....(he reads Pace Advantage so he'll see this) he asks if he can send cash...So there was just something about him, maybe I don't know...but I tell him "yeah sure, but instead of sending me cash--make a $5 bet on the Early Double @ Belmont tomorrow morning--Criss-Cross the PACE VIEW top two picks in the 1st and 2nd race.
That will cost you $20 bucks--if you win, send me $35....if you lose---keep the program with my compliments---fair enough?

So I send off that e-mail...and never hear back from him. Okay I'm not surprised--he got me. No biggie, I had it coming for trusting yet another person with no PAY PAL.

I think it was later the next day (I didn't even look to see if the double hit--that's how much faith I had in this guy) ...I get an e-mail from him. I'm thinking he's probably gonna say he needs cab fare to go collect that payoff or something.

The e-mail says "Sorry NCG, I got called in to work and never got to make any bets...I'll get your money to you---thanks."

So by now within a minute I've completely forgotten about this man. Been very busy with "real' customers, etc. So today I go out and check the mail---and get a letter from Texas. I open it up...it's from this man, who happens to be from Texas---enclosed is $35.00 CASH.
Sir if you read this--you seriously have restored much of my faith in people.
I was stationed in Texas during the Army--in know Texans to be decent people---thank you very much. Anything you need---let me know--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Rambled on so much I forgot the reason I was posting in the first place:

was to tell Winger the Best Bets might be what you're looking for to balance

your longshots. Certain tracks especially, are money. None win everyday of

course...but some of the PA tracks are up there...and I know ALB is in the high

40's because I play Alb almost every day. Looks like all the TUP horses are

running...

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I may have actually spelled "ALBUEQUERQUE" properly...pretty darn close anyway. I had a spell-checker/grammar-corrector Chrome "app"...but after using the free version for a couple months without actually buying it---it started cutting me off. A message would come on the screen saying something like:

"YOU'VE REACHED YOUR LIMIT OF 10 MISTAKES THIS WEEK" and it would shut off on me! I would have to actually think again!! It's horrible. I got so mad I deleted it---no piece of technology is gonna hold me hostage!

So now I'm looking for a new free spell-checker. One that's a little friendlier, less demanding.

BTW....to Red Means Go --thank you for the kind words which weren't coerced in any way --What was I going to do--Nail the guy for $35.00 for a program he accidentally ordered and can't use?

I never read everything either....I check the hi-lites, the cost, sounds good--yeh okay I'm in! Later on is when I find out more about it LOL.
Why do you all buy MACs anyway?

Okay now...let me get to my feel good story:

I'm up one night as I always am..and a guy sends me an email. He says he doesn't have PayPal, is it possible to just send me a money order, or cash?
Now, if you've never done internet business, you have no way of knowing this---but almost 100 out of 100 times, the 'No PayPal Guy" is trying some kind of scam to avoid actually buying whatever it is you are selling.

I'm not making that up, I'm not just an old scrooge...you can ask anyone you know who sells online. This is going to be in my online blog BTW.
It really irks me sometimes--I sell my program very inexpensively....and I still get some people who just don't want to pay for the dang thing.

I saw a guy steal an ice cream bar in the Dollar Store...so anything's possible. So getting back to my internet guy.....(he reads Pace Advantage so he'll see this) he asks if he can send cash...So there was just something about him, maybe I don't know...but I tell him "yeah sure, but instead of sending me cash--make a $5 bet on the Early Double @ Belmont tomorrow morning--Criss-Cross the PACE VIEW top two picks in the 1st and 2nd race.
That will cost you $20 bucks--if you win, send me $35....if you lose---keep the program with my compliments---fair enough?

So I send off that e-mail...and never hear back from him. Okay I'm not surprised--he got me. No biggie, I had it coming for trusting yet another person with no PAY PAL.

I think it was later the next day (I didn't even look to see if the double hit--that's how much faith I had in this guy) ...I get an e-mail from him. I'm thinking he's probably gonna say he needs cab fare to go collect that payoff or something.

The e-mail says "Sorry NCG, I got called in to work and never got to make any bets...I'll get your money to you---thanks."

So by now within a minute I've completely forgotten about this man. Been very busy with "real' customers, etc. So today I go out and check the mail---and get a letter from Texas. I open it up...it's from this man, who happens to be from Texas---enclosed is $35.00 CASH.
Sir if you read this--you seriously have restored much of my faith in people.
I was stationed in Texas during the Army--in know Texans to be decent people---thank you very much. Anything you need---let me know--NCG

Theres the guy I fell in love with..... his rambling....

O by the way...

It took you a week to get 10 mistakes....

mike

[Winger]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Rambled on so much I forgot the reason I was posting in the first place:

was to tell Winger the Best Bets might be what you're looking for to balance

your longshots. Certain tracks especially, are money. None win everyday of

course...but some of the PA tracks are up there...and I know ALB is in the high

40's because I play Alb almost every day. Looks like all the TUP horses are

running...

I'm going to look at the best bets. To be honest, I'm trying to add to my handicapping. I'm not looking to bet someone else's picks. My #1 horse is returning 0.9 ROI over 13000 races. I'm looking for something to put that over the top.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Theres the guy I fell in love with..... his rambling....

O by the way...

It took you a week to get 10 mistakes....

mike

It started to reset every week---that was the second day!!

Wasn't that a heartwarming story? I'm expecting a call from the Disney folks.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Rambled on so much I forgot the reason I was posting in the first place:

was to tell Winger the Best Bets might be what you're looking for to balance

your longshots. Certain tracks especially, are money. None win everyday of

course...but some of the PA tracks are up there...and I know ALB is in the high

40's because I play Alb almost every day. Looks like all the TUP horses are

running...

Okay that's cool Winger. KING CORAL--with all he had going for him--still won and paid $8.80. The exacta with HUNTERWOOD paid $23.20 --The other two best bets both ran 2nd.--NCG

[Winger]

Originally Posted by Winger

Lots of consensus picks for tomorrow's busy day.

ALB-8 SCIATICA - 6/1
APX-2 ONLY IN AMERICA - 3/1
APX-5 BULL MARKET RICH - 7/2
ARP-7 A J'S GRAND - 3/1
ASD-7 MAGNETIC JAZZ - 5/2
BEL-3 BOMB'S AWAY - 3/5
BEL-4 CLOONTIA - 1/1
BEL-8 STORM PROPHET - 9/5
BTP-2 :1A: SECOND TIME - 3/1
BTP-7 BE NICE - 4/1
CBY-9 BILTMORE BOOGIE - 4/5
CTX-4 LASTMANCHARITABLE - 8/1
EMD-3 COPY BEGONE - 5/2
EMD-5 LOOK ABOVE - 5/2
EVD-4 LA JUSTICE - 5/1
EVD-6 FOREST LAKE - 9/5
FPK-1 HOLYHOOT - 9/5
FPK-5 RENT A COP - 4/1
FPK-7 BOLD FORCE - 3/1
GPX-10 GELFENSTEIN - 9/2
IND-2 FAITHFUL NEIGBOR - 7/2
IND-5 BELLAMY'S VERDICT - 2/1
LRL-1 BILLY THE BULL - 8/5
LRL-5 CHANEL NUMBER ONE - 4/1
LSX-2 THE BUSINESS - 7/5
LSX-5 MEDAL OF COURAGE - 9/5
MDX-3 DAUGHTER DEREK - 9/2
MDX-5 SHORT OF MONEY - 6/1
MDX-6 RUNAWAY LION - 6/1
MDX-7 GRAND PULPIT - 7/1
MTH-2 A SIXTIES TUNE - 7/5
MTH-8 DON'S MARSH - 2/1
NPX-1 JUST WIN BABY - 7/5
NPX-4 BOSS BEGONE - 8/5
NPX-6 CHAMP'S LAW - 5/2
PEN-4 GLOVE'S OFF - 2/1
PEN-6 PEA SHOTER PRO - 2/1
PRM-8 NATIVE PRINCESS - 7/5
PRM-9 HEED TO SPEED - 8/5
TDN-1 INCITEMENT - 3/1
TDN-2 OLIVER'S BULL - 5/2
TDN-3 ISTRUE - 3/1
TDN-4 CAN'T GET ENOUGH - 5/2
TDN-5 GRADUATEWITHHONORS - 5/2
TDN-8 COMPULSIVE - 9/2
WOX-3 BLURRICAN - 2/1
WOX-3 TH ORIGINAL SCOTTY - 4/1
WOX-8 GETERDONEBUD - 4/1
WOX-9 SOMETHING AWESOME - 5/1

Overall went 14/42 at a loss.

5/2 and under morning line went 11/22 with a 1.1 ROI. That is 3 consecutive days of 50%+ winners w/ a positive ROI.

[NorCalGreg]

What's all this about turkeys cooing---thought doves cooed....or cried...or something

How come every time I go on twitter, it says I should follow Craig Milkowski...I already follow everyone on Timeform....including TIMEFORM ITSELF! That would just be weird.

One twitter acct to follow is DRF FORMULATOR----serious! Some very good info from those guys.
Like this for example: