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03-22-2016, 04:32 AM
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#196
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Winger
Hit 4/8 on the 50% method, but I don't have the time to continue with it. I was hoping to make a method based on rolling doubles, but that's a project for another time.
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I made the same attempt...was falling farther and farther out of the 50% range---finally tossed it.
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03-22-2016, 08:08 AM
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#197
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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⚡ BEST BETS ⚡
STARTING BANKROLL $1000 -AMERICAN
❇ $100 BASE BET---SQUARE ROOT OF PROFIT ADDED EACH DAY ❇
O3/20/16
*TURFWAY PARK* RACE 1  ⭐ LA GRENOUILLE ⭐ 5-1 ML *RAN OUT*
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
O3/22/16
TODAYS WAGER = $100 TO WIN
*MAHONING* RACE 5 ⭐CASEY'S IMAGE ⭐ 9/2 ML
*TURF PARADISE* RACE 5  ⭐NEGRO PRIMERO ⭐ 5-1 ML
✨NCG
*keep in mind--I'm just some guy on the internet that you don't know----watch but please DON'T BET
*I only bet when the situation presents itself--there will not be a play everyday [/QUOTE]
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-22-2016 at 08:10 AM.
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03-22-2016, 09:58 AM
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#198
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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IN CLOVER RATINGS
Decided to post up INCLOVER software selections for Turf Paradise today.
The first are the rating selections--they're actually decent--as good as TTT.
The program also has another button called "OUR PICKS" --that evidently uses a different algorythm and doesnt correlate with the ratings.
RACE#1
4.50-LOTS OF CASH -216.07
2.00-UP YOUR PLAN -214.34
8.00-JUST AFTER SUNSET -213.59
RACE #2
1.60-PASS ON COMMAND -201.50
2.50-EYESADREAMIN -200.47
4.50-MAJOR THREAT -196.85
RACE#3
1.80-GOTTA GET PAID -240.56
2.00-EIGHT ENDER -219.17
3.50-TAILGATOR -217.31
RACE#4
4.50-ONE WAY EDDIE -182.90
4.00-AFLEET EDITION -173.94
5.00-NOBLE MOJAVE -173.60
RACE#5
2.50-CONTICINIO -251.10
5.00-NEGRO PRIMERO -229.71
4.50-DR TUFF -228.47
RACE#6
1.60-FISCHER KING -175.15
2.50-CONSPIRATOR -170.5
8.00-CAYOKE STAR1 -67.40
RACE#7
4.50-WARREN'S CASPER -221.96
6.00-SARGENT STADANKO -221.34
5.00-HIDDEN DEMON -220.72
RACE#8
2.50-FUZZY LOVIN -221.03
2.00-BOREALIS BREEZE -220.72
12.00-GOTTCHA MY DEAR -217.00
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-22-2016 at 10:04 AM.
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03-22-2016, 10:39 AM
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#199
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Decided to post up INCLOVER software selections for Turf Paradise today.
The first are the rating selections--they're actually decent--as good as TTT.
The program also has another button called "OUR PICKS" --that evidently uses a different algorythm and doesnt correlate with the ratings.
RACE#1
4.50-LOTS OF CASH -216.07
2.00-UP YOUR PLAN -214.34
8.00-JUST AFTER SUNSET -213.59
RACE #2
1.60-PASS ON COMMAND -201.50
2.50-EYESADREAMIN -200.47
4.50-MAJOR THREAT -196.85
RACE#3
1.80-GOTTA GET PAID -240.56
2.00-EIGHT ENDER -219.17
3.50-TAILGATOR -217.31
RACE#4
4.50-ONE WAY EDDIE -182.90
4.00-AFLEET EDITION -173.94
5.00-NOBLE MOJAVE -173.60
RACE#5
2.50-CONTICINIO -251.10
5.00-NEGRO PRIMERO -229.71
4.50-DR TUFF -228.47
RACE#6
1.60-FISCHER KING -175.15
2.50-CONSPIRATOR -170.5
8.00-CAYOKE STAR1 -167.40
RACE#7
4.50-WARREN'S CASPER -221.96
6.00-SARGENT STADANKO -221.34
5.00-HIDDEN DEMON -220.72
RACE#8
2.50-FUZZY LOVIN -221.03
2.00-BOREALIS BREEZE -220.72
12.00-GOTTCHA MY DEAR -217.00
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These are the INCLOVER'S
Picks for today:
1
3/RED SPRING
6/LOTS OF CASH
4/UP YOUR PLAN
2
2/PASS ON COMMAND
1/EYESADREAMIN
5/MAJOR THREAT
3
1/GOTTA GET PAID
2/EIGHT ENDER
6/TAILGATOR
4
5/ONE WAY EDDIE
7/FIFTYSHADESFREE
4/NOBLE MOJAVE
5
6/CONTICINIO
2/NEGRO PRIMERO
3/DR TUFF
6
8/FISHER KING
5/CONSPIRATOR
1/CAYOKE STAR
7
2/WHOA BOY
9/HIDDEN DEMON
8/WARREN'S CASPER
8
4/MIGIWEWIN
1/FUZZY LOVIN
9/GOTTCHA MY DEAR
As you can see--they are different than the rating selections. There's not a lot you can tweak or adjust with INCLOVER--and what IS adjustable--I've found better success just leaving everything as is.
We'll see how the program does today. If there are any decent prices--I consider taking the top pick over the next two in exacta--maybe races 4, and 5, with a tri box of all 3 in the sixth.
☠ NCG
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03-22-2016, 12:40 PM
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#200
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Spot Plays/Angles
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03-23-2016, 01:05 AM
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#201
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $206.00 (+$6.00 - 102 Races)
Wager = $6 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Today's Selections:
SUN-7  Snowbound Jones (4/1)
WRD-6 Eugenes Star (10/1) 1st... 23.80 &  Crafty Vision (4/1) Scratched
==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.
Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race
MVR-4  Luckysdream (2/1) 1st... 4.20
These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
SUN-7 Snowbound Jones (4/1)
SUN-8 King of Cool (7/2)
SUN-9  Punkin Roll (3/1) 1st... 2.80
WRD-8 Flying Tom (4/1) 1st... 13.40
1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
TUP-5 Conticinio (5/2) |
No one hit the late Pick 3 at WRD. I guess I should have keyed my 2 horses with all for the 2nd leg.
Last edited by Winger; 03-23-2016 at 01:08 AM.
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03-23-2016, 01:22 AM
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#202
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Current Bankroll: $265.40 (+$65.40 - 104 Races)
Wager = $7 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Today's Selections:
PEN-2 El Viejo Verde (4/1)
TUP-6 Oui Man (15/1)
==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.
Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
None Today
These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
GPX-2 Bettarun Realfast (7/2)
MVR-6 Seek To Destroy (7/2)
MVR-7 Twitterverse (15/1)
PEN-6  Ohdu Ohdu (3/1)
TUP-3 Judy Kay (6/1)
WRD-1 Midway Mine (20/1)
1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
WRD-1 Midway Mine (20/1)
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03-23-2016, 06:20 AM
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#203
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 2,956
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Decided to post up INCLOVER software selections for Turf Paradise today.
The first are the rating selections--they're actually decent--as good as TTT.
The program also has another button called "OUR PICKS" --that evidently uses a different algorythm and doesnt correlate with the ratings.
RACE#1
4.50-LOTS OF CASH -216.07
2.00-UP YOUR PLAN -214.34
8.00-JUST AFTER SUNSET -213.59
RACE #2
1.60-PASS ON COMMAND -201.50
2.50-EYESADREAMIN -200.47
4.50-MAJOR THREAT -196.85
RACE#3
1.80-GOTTA GET PAID -240.56
2.00-EIGHT ENDER -219.17
3.50-TAILGATOR -217.31
RACE#4
4.50-ONE WAY EDDIE -182.90
4.00-AFLEET EDITION -173.94
5.00-NOBLE MOJAVE -173.60
RACE#5
2.50-CONTICINIO -251.10
5.00-NEGRO PRIMERO -229.71
4.50-DR TUFF -228.47
RACE#6
1.60-FISCHER KING -175.15
2.50-CONSPIRATOR -170.5
8.00-CAYOKE STAR1 -67.40
RACE#7
4.50-WARREN'S CASPER -221.96
6.00-SARGENT STADANKO -221.34
5.00-HIDDEN DEMON -220.72
RACE#8
2.50-FUZZY LOVIN -221.03
2.00-BOREALIS BREEZE -220.72
12.00-GOTTCHA MY DEAR -217.00
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A few nice winners and exacta's 
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03-23-2016, 07:18 AM
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#204
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by upthecreek
A few nice winners and exacta's |
Yep, and it's another program that can be purchased for under $50.
I will say this about the 4th race:
RACE#4
4.50- ONE WAY EDDIE -182.90
4.00-AFLEET EDITION -173.94
5.00-NOBLE MOJAVE -173.60
By any handicapping method---be it a DEEP BLUE-type intricate computer program, $10 pace app--to the thousands of paper & pencil methods---to plain ol' common-sense 'capping--ALL had 'EDDIE on top.
Even my TIPS program, that isn't even really set up for maidens--nailed the cold tri.
ONE WAY EDDIE paid an amazing $13.20 to win
How, on God's Green Earth--does THAT happen?
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03-23-2016, 07:34 AM
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#205
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Before you go thinking it's just those unsophisticated lower-tier track yokels letting horses like EDDIE get off barely noticed--here's a gem from cosmopolitan, elite NY's AQUEDUCT--that somehow, some way--bettors let this horse go off at almost 40-1.
When I saw what MATAURUS paid to win ($78)....I wanted to go into my garage and get my BB gun out--and fire off a round into my forehead.
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-23-2016 at 07:41 AM.
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03-23-2016, 10:32 AM
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#206
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Pace/Spot plays 3/23
⭐CTX
8TH NO MORE WEAK MOMENTS 12-1
⭐TAM
5TH 12 WEST OF EDEN 20-1
⭐TUP
4TH GO GOLDIE GO 10-1
6TH OUI MAN 15-1
7TH MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE 12-1
✨ NCG
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03-23-2016, 11:08 AM
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#207
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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TIPS BEST BETS
Today seems like a good day to post the TIPS program best bets. Like most useful software, it's fully tweakable--so no two users will get the exact same horses for every race.
Since the methodology is based on trainer intent and degree of manipulation--it isn't really relevant in the higher-class races--stakes, handicaps, etc--mainly because every horse's connections are TRYING to win every race, at that level.
This program works best on lower-level claimers, where other motives, signals, and "TIPS" come into play.
These are the top choices based on the settings I use--with the TIPS I give the most weight to:
CHARLESTOWN ~ 1ST SPECIAL NIGHT ACTION 4-1 ❇ best bet ❇
GULFSTREAM ~ 2ND BETTARUNREALFAST 7/2
MAHONING ~ 1ST NEW YORK GEM 9/2
PENN ~ 2ND EL VIEJO VERDE 4-1
TAMPA ~ 6TH STROLLING IN THE RAIN 2-1
TURF PARADISE ~ 6TH JUNE BUG BEN 4-1
W/RODGERS ~ 3RD AUNT SISSY 9-2
-NCG
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03-24-2016, 12:53 AM
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#208
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Winger
Current Bankroll: $265.40 (+$65.40 - 104 Races)
Wager = $7 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Today's Selections:
PEN-2 El Viejo Verde (4/1)
TUP-6 Oui Man (15/1)
==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.
Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
None Today
These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
GPX-2 Bettarun Realfast (7/2)
MVR-6 Seek To Destroy (7/2) Scratched
MVR-7 Twitterverse (15/1) Scratched
PEN-6 Ohdu Ohdu (3/1)
TUP-3 Judy Kay (6/1)
WRD-1 Midway Mine (20/1) Scratched
1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
WRD-1 Midway Mine (20/1) Scratched |
No winners, lots of scratches.
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03-24-2016, 01:02 AM
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#209
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 807
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Current Bankroll: $251.40 (+$51.40 - 106 Races)
Wager = $7 Win (2.5% of day's starting bankroll, rounded up, $2 min)
Condition: Minimum Odds condition removed.
Today's Selections:
FGX-8 Texas Fire (5/1)
SAX-4 Slews Charm (20/1)
==================================================
Additional Selections:
These descriptions here aren't all-inclusive but it is the base of the angle.
Hit the board in the last 4 with no class change this race.
CTX-1 Cockeyed Cowboy (7/2)
PEN-6 Prospector Alley (7/2)
These picks come straight from the Bris Summary Page.
AQU-1 Pearls for Girls (3/1)
AQU-8 Madame Maybry (9/2)
CTX-8  Canaryinacoalmine (6/1)
FGX-8 School Spirit (6/1)
GGX-7 Xerxes (7/2)
OPX-8 Bayered (3/1) & Brewing (10/1)
1st or 2nd with new trainer, with recent activity and a recent strong speed figure.
AQU-4  Lebowski (3/1)
AQU-7 Picture Day (5/1)
SAX-2 Hide My Heart (5/1)
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03-24-2016, 08:54 AM
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#210
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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*HTW/Ready To Win
AQUEDUCT THURSDAY
R-1#3 ❇ Shakesperian Dream ML 10-1 Esquivel/G. Sciacca *CFN* from Persuad--monster workout -4F 2/113- leading up.
R-6 #2 ❇ Feets of Strength ML 8-1 Luzzi/Jerkins *MD huge early pace numbers--goes longer --nice angle play
R-8 #7 ❇ Our Whim ML 6-1 I. Ortiz, Jr./S. Asmussen *Looks RTW*
R-9 #8 ❇ Rich Dalone ML 4-1 J. Ortiz/ Levine *not much effort since BIG TRY--if today's not the day--then when?
SANTA ANITA
R-1 #5 ❇ Gavination ML 20-1 Pereira/Marquez *Wire threat on stretchout @ big odds. 77% speed bias/ 40% wire jobs @ this mile distance say it's possible.
R-3 #6 ❇ Entebbe ML 5-1 Desormeaux/Kruljac *Top of her game right now--everything fits
R-5 #7 ❇ Hiking ML 6-1 Bejarano/Callaghan *noteworthy race-to-race improvement last three-better trip wins last-rider switch-top Prime Power-ready to roll.
-NCG
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