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Chris Longshot
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 80,087
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CHRIS LONGSHOT MOUNTAINEER PLAYS w/ COMMENTS(Friday)
*LOOKS LIKE AN OFF TRACK TOMORROW AT MNR, THOUGH NOT DEFINATE. I WILL OCCASIONALLY ADD COMMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH MY PICKS. TRYING TO MAKE MY SELECTIONS A LITTLE MORE INFORMITIVE. DON"T HESISTATE TO REPLY TO THIS THREAD I ALWAYS APPRECIATE ANY FEEDBACK WHETHER NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE. GOOD LUCK!!!!!!
RACE 1
#6 BOOK ON BANDIT(Johnson Runner Has Faced Better Maidens In Past. Lack Of Speed May Be Beneficial On Pace Bias Track, Bred To Relish An Off Track)
#1 FIRST OSCAR(Shrock Runner Is A Consistent Closer Who Has A Serious Case Of Thirditis, Can't Like Him On The Win End, But With Track Favoring Closers, Moves Up A Slot)
#4 ROMANTIC CAT(Likely Favorite, Has Developed The One Good Race Bad Race Syndrome And A Case Of Seconditis In The Process, The 84 Beyer Will Probably Cause An Underlay, Wins This Easily With Repeat Performance But Just Not Willing To Take A Short Price On An Inconsistent Runner)
LONGSHOT: #7 DANCING STRAIGHT(Baird Runner Has Been Awful Since Being Claimed Back In June. Cuts Back For This, Likes To Show Speed But Has Trouble Getting The Lead, Not A Lot Of Speed In This Race May Get Loose)
RACE 2
#2 CENTERFOLD MAYBE(Hurt Runner Has Disappointed Big Time As Heavy Favorite On More Than One Occasion. Gets Brief Freshning For This, Ramgeet Up, Favorable Post, Stalking Style Works Well Here, I Expect Improvement)
#6 THESSALONKI(Disappointed As Favorite In Last, Then Layed Up And Takes Drop, Hardly Encouraging, But Baird Has Won In Past With This Type Of Scenario, Again Stalking Style Fits Well Here)
#1 BRICK PARTY(Amazingly In His Last 10 Starts, Brick Party Has Never Been Higher Than 3-1 And Is 0-10, Thats A Serious Money Burner, Won't Be Favorite Here, Should Get A Nice Rail Trip And Shilling Has Been Hot Of Late)
LONGSHOT: #4 LITTLEMISSLOUWHO(Mercifully Gets Some Class Relief And If You Look At The Field Other Than The 6 He's Probably Faced The Toughest Horses Of The Bunch, He's Performed Awful But The MSW To MCL Is A Big Drop, Don't Like Him To Win But Could Grab Third Late At Huge Odds)
RACE 3
#5 CINEMA STAR(Drops In Class, Obvious Horse On Beyers, Gets Top Jock, Hollendorfer Often Sells Horses With Something Left, McDonnell 28% Off Claim)
#2 STORM CAVE(Nice Second Last Out To Johnson Speedster, Gets Brief Freshning, In The Money Last 7 Out Of Ten Starts, Just Love Consistent
Horses)
#1 FLOATER(Negative Barn Change, Deep Closer And Short Price Makes This Runner Suspect, Has Back Class To Compete And Loses A Condition For This, Should Be Coming Late But The 5 Could Be Long Gone By Then)
LONGSHOT: #8 BOORTZ(Deep Closer Has Been Off Since May, Catches 2 Conditions For This And Is 2 Out Of 3 At This Distance But Appears To Be A Router On Form, Public Will Assume Trainers Giving Him a Race Maybe True But If Odds Are Right Might Be Worth A Play)
RACE 4
#3 PYRITE HALO(Trainer 42% 2nd Route Race, Only 3rd Career Start, Ramgeet Sees Fit, Trainer Jock 37% In Tandem, Should Stalk The Pace Early)
#7 PEARL LUSTER(Improved Nicely In First Route Race, Baird Takes Over, Baird 16% Off Claim, Expect Further Improvement Routing)
#8 BLUE WATER GIRL(Hamm Runner Might be Over Looked Here, If The Odds Drift Up Might be A Solid Play, Hamm 20% In MSW)
LONGSHOT: #5 SUBSTRATE(Johnson Runner Stretches Out, Has Been Chasing Quick 1st Quarters, Might Be Speed Of This Race, Hated Synthetic Surface In Last, Could Surprise At A Price)
RACE 5(Super)
#5 BLACK CAT OF MINE(Markham Having Decent Meet, Good Second At PID For A Higher Tag, Should Have Gained Some Conditioning, Parker Stays, Stalking Style Should Help Cause)
#2 CRAFTY ACCOUNTING(Hot Trainer Right Now, Won For Fun On A Sloppy Track In Last, Lots Of Negatives Though, Likely Canidate To Bounce, Was A Vet Scratch On Sept 24 And Was An Early Scratch Again On Oct 7, If Odds Drift Up Might Consider)
#4 DANCE FOR A BUCK(Consistent Money Burner For Cook, Improved In Last start But Still Couldn't Find Winners Circle, Should Be In The Mix But Hard To Like For The Win)
LONGSHOT: #7 SYBIL"S WAY(Progno Runner Won In Slow Time In Last, Trainer 13% With Repeaters, Could Fill Out The Third Spot If Race Collapses)
RACE 6
#7 WITH WINGS(Sowle 18% In MSW, 35% At Mnr, Should Show Speed From Outside)
#1 HONOURABLE FLAG(Likely Favorite Best On Beyers, Gets Top Jock, Has Faced Better, Will Be A Short Price)
#8 SERVICE CORPS(Steady Works For Debut, Scott 18% In MSW, Spieth Riding Well Right Now)
LONGSHOT: #2 TEXAS CELEBRITY(Showed Nothing In Debut, Gets Blinkers, Poole 25% With this Move, Moves Up Significantly On An Off Track)
RACE 7
#7 OUTSIDE THE LINES(Cox/Stokes 25% In Tandem, Should Get A Good Spot Early Sitting Just Off Speeds)
#1 MISSED CONNECTION(Baird Runner Has Been Slowly Improving, Goes For Two In A Row, Goes Up The Condition Cycle, Parker Will Save Ground From The Rail And Try To Come On Through Late)
#3 SIMPLY FANCY(Trainer 26% 2nd Off Claim, Bernidini Runners Notorious For Being Over Bet And Disappointing At Short Odds)
LONGSHOT: #4 DASHFORTHEROSES(Eased In Last Start But Ridden Horribly By A 15 Pound Apprentice, Gets Rider Upgrade, Previously Consistent Runner Should Show Some Speed, At Nice Odds Only)
RACE 8
#1 MISTY SABIN(Magrell 26% At Meet, Had Little Chance From 10 Post In Last, Hated Synthetic Surface 2 Back, So Has Some Excuses, Do Expect Some Improvement, Gets Nice Post, Spieth Riding Confidently Right Now)
#4 THIS IS LOVE(Baird Runner Always Closes For A Piece Late, Often Too Late To Reach The Winners Circle)
#9 CANDY ONE(Refused To Take Short Odds on a 2/145 Jock And An 2/94 Trainer Coming Out Of A Disadvantaged Post Position, Its against My Horseracing Religion)
LONGSHOT: #8 SHERIFF SHELLY(Hurt Runner Needed Break After 2 Dismal Defeats, Exits Key Race, Would Benefit From A Fast Track)
LONGSHOT: #7 SWEET BREEZE(Faulkner 20% 2nd Start, Horses Out Running Forms As Of Late)
RACE 9
#3 SWIPER THE FOX (Ruberto 33% 2nd Start, 36% Sprint To Route, Jock/Trainer A Whopping 67% In Tandem, Should Come Closing Late)
#8 COUNSELLED(Likely Favorite, Flint 20% Sprint To Route, Whitney/Flint 40% In Tandem)
#7 TEXSPLOSIVE HALL(Smith Charges Having Good Meet, Was In Tough Last 2 Races At PID, Should Be In The Mix Late)
LONGSHOT: #4 DESTELLO(Throw Out Last On Synthetic Surface, 2 Bullets 7 Days Apart, Stretches Out, Allen 10% With This Move)
RACE 10(Super)
#5 YANKEE TRAIL(Hard To Go Against Ruberto, 37% At Mnr, 67% With Spieth Up)
#3 RARE DEPUTY(Horse Consistently In Money, But Lacks Winning Kick, Out Of Form Recently,Though Has Raced In Tougher Conditions In Past)
#4 TRIPLE SHOT( Couldn't Last On Lead In Previous, Tries To Wire Again, 3rd Start Of Form Cycle, Moves Up On A Wet Track)
#6 ASTALA TRIESTE BABY(Eased In Last, Negative Barn Change, Exits Competitive Race For Obscure Trainer, Stokes Still Sees Fit Though)
LONGSHOT: #2 SLAMMO(2 Out Of 6 Career Wins On A Off Track)
AS ALWAYS WATCH ODDS ON LONGSHOTS!!!!!
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