Past posting

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Somebody (besides the CAWs) needs to think out loud about the technology and the integrity of the pools.

Should be simple. Don't allow late betting. No cancel delay. No hacking. No blind pools.

Allowing someone rebates, and the ability to calculate and successful place a a large 'batch' of wagers in the last few seconds is plenty reward for investing in and contributing to our pools.

I don't even think it's possible to see 'uncovered combos', but if it is, this whole 'jackpot' thing is nothing more than a sham...

I know this thread was mainly started in regard to the perception of lack of integrity that happens with late odds changes. in the over 30 year history of the massachusetts lottery numbers game, there has never been a day where someone didn't hit the 4 digit number. there is no probability known to man that can make that fact possible. the numbers game is a pari-mutuel bet.




I don't know, but some of that is worth considering.

the massachusetts lottery has a 4 digit numbers game. it is a pari-mutual bet. the game has been around over 30 years now. throughout the history of that game there has never been 1 day where someone didn't hit the 4 digit number. now they draw twice a day and no difference.

bottom line, anytime money is involved in anything, WATCH OUT.

[metro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

If CAWs are given data on Trifectas, Pick-3s, or other deeper multi data (such as uncovered jackpot combinations) then that should be considered 'criminal'/'cheating' by both the CAW in that instance and the Race Track or ADW that offers the data and the false advertising to the public.


/As far as the Trifecta pool data - It is the actual pool info not an estimate. It's not offered at all tracks. I don't know whether it is 'possible' to obtain that info at the tracks that don't currently offer Trifecta Pool probables, but it seems that if it were, it would be free money to CAWs or insiders (via simple correction of inefficiencies).

I don't have enough understanding to say that the Trifecta Pool technology is something that means that Pick-3 pools are in fact able to be calculated in the same or similar way. On the surface, that seems 'logical', but I can't make any type of informed statement. Certainly questionable, and as a pool that is 'blind' to all public ADW offerings, it is a valid concern that CAWs and insiders could have access to this.

If CAWs simply use expensive computers and elegant creative algorithms to make better 'estimates' and power ratings etc... - I don't have a problem with that. That's what I call a high-level pro operation.

If the actual pool Probables and info like 'uncovered combos' are available, but not shared to the public, that is criminal.

If the CAWs are accessing the pools to chase uncovered jackpot combinations I say let them have it. Those combinations go uncovered for a reason.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by metro

If the CAWs are accessing the pools to chase uncovered jackpot combinations I say let them have it. Those combinations go uncovered for a reason.

On one hand, I agree.


but if it's somehow possible, that would be really bad, considering how the rules are written for those 'jackpot' and 'rainbow' bets, and the already extreme (added)takeout and odds that players face in those bets.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So....

What exactly is the problem again?

Imo, the root cause of the problem is the way track management and horsemen led alphabet groups keep insisting on the status quo.

There are many past threads here at Paceadvantage where we've discussed the very same topics we are discussing here in this (current) thread at length.

In a few of those past threads I posted that I thought handle attributable to CAW players (at the time) had risen to between 20% and 25% of total handle.

Fast forward (a few years) to this current thread --

The DRF.com article linked to in post #140 of this current thread mentions a 30% handle number attributable to CAW players:

The bets are not advertised as being “CAW-free,” reflecting the caution exhibited by many racetrack operators when dealing with CAW activity. By drawing attention to the exception, racetrack operators are fearful that everyday bettors might begin to look askance at all the other pools in which CAW activity usually hits 30 percent of the betting.

Think about what that really means.

By insisting on the status quo:

Track management and horsemen led alphabet groups have managed the game in a way that keeps driving away business from everyday horseplayers who are the backbone of this game.

At what point does the percentage of handle attributable to CAW players become too high? --

25%?... 30%?... 40%?... 50%?

What's it going to take for track management and horsemen led alphabet groups to wake the 'f up and realize the status quo (high takeout, ever higher signal fees, source market fee in state after state, denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, and ever shrinking field size) they've been insisting on for the past 10 years isn't working?



-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

But let's be real for a moment.

Hasn't the majority of handle always been bet by a minority of the players? At least in modern times?

The smart money is ALWAYS betting more than dumb money...always.

That's why it's the smart money.

But there are a lot more dumb players than smart players. So you would think the dumb players bet as much or more than the smart players, on the whole.

That never happens though...because, luckily, for the most part, the dumb players instinctively know they're dumb...so they don't bet a lot...

If they don't know they're dumb, then they just go broke quickly if they bet a lot more than they should.

[cj]

https://racingthinktank.com/reports/...not-only-elite

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

But let's be real for a moment.

Hasn't the majority of handle always been bet by a minority of the players? At least in modern times?

The smart money is ALWAYS betting more than dumb money...always.

That's why it's the smart money.

But there are a lot more dumb players than smart players. So you would think the dumb players bet as much or more than the smart players, on the whole.

That never happens though...because, luckily, for the most part, the dumb players instinctively know they're dumb...so they don't bet a lot...

If they don't know they're dumb, then they just go broke quickly if they bet a lot more than they should.

No.

If you go back to 2003-2004 the percentage of handle attributable to CAW was lower... Imo somewhere between 10% and 15%.

Imo, that wasn't because the largest computer teams weren't betting significant amounts. Hint: They were.

Imo, percentage of handle attributable to CAW of between 10% and 15% was because handle and participation by the everyday horseplayer was much larger back then than it is today.

According to stats at the Jockey Club website, North American handle peaked in 2003.

Starting in about 2005 or so, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups began implementing changes... higher takeout, ever increasing track signal fees, source market fee in state after state, and denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, etc.

Those changes had an effect. Everyday horseplayers began betting less.

Over the years, as takeout went higher, as signal fees were raised with each new signal contract, as source market fee was implemented in state after state, as indepently owned ADWs disappeared:

Everyday horseplayers were driven from the game.

Handle from the most sophisticated players has been shrinking over the years too.

But not nearly as fast as handle from the everyday horseplayer who is still the backbone of this game.


-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

No.

If you go back to 2003-2004 the percentage of handle attributable to CAW was lower... Imo somewhere between 10% and 15%.

Imo, that wasn't because the largest computer teams weren't betting significant amounts. Hint: They were.

Imo, percentage of handle attributable to CAW of between 10% and 15% was because handle and participation by the everyday horseplayer was much larger back then than it is today.

According to stats at the Jockey Club website, North American handle peaked in 2003.

Starting in about 2005 or so, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups began implementing changes... higher takeout, ever increasing track signal fees, source market fee in state after state, and denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, etc.

Those changes had an effect. Everyday horseplayers began betting less.

Over the years, as takeout went higher, as signal fees were raised with each new signal contract, as source market fee was implemented in state after state, as indepently owned ADWs disappeared:

Everyday horseplayers were driven from the game.

Handle from the most sophisticated players has been shrinking over the years too.

But not nearly as fast as handle from the everyday horseplayer who is still the backbone of this game.


-jp

.

I'm not talking about CAW specifically.

I'm talking about the percentage of handle bet by "whales" as opposed to those who average $2-$5-$10 per wager...you know...THE REST OF US....

There have ALWAYS been whales...even before computers...

Remember the 80/20 rule? Pretty sure that has applied to racing handle even before CAW....but I could be wrong.

And if it HAS applied, even in a modified form (maybe not 80/20...maybe more like 70/30), then can we really say the "everyday" player ever was the backbone of the game?

The backbone of the game is the group that bets the most money annually.

Has that EVER been the "everyday" $2-$5-$10 bettor?

[Jeff P]

Imo, the problem is that it isn't 80/20 any more.

It's closer to 70/30 or 65/35.



-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

I modified my reply to include that very real possibility before I saw your reply.

[Jeff P]

I see that.

Imo, back in 2003-2004 it was closer to 85/15.

But I think we're both on the same page.


-jp

.

[GMB@BP]

What constitutes "smart money".

Is an expert in handicapping and wagering on horses considered smart money"

or is it that plus someone with extensive inside knowledge inside the barns?

Does it have a wagering amount that would make them the smart money?

I honestly dont know. There are a lot of smart handicappers out there that I know, not sure I would say they are smart money.

I am not sure how smart these CAW even need to be with the system rigged for them, I mean I am sure they are but 2% profit doesnt seem that hard to me.

[PaceAdvantage]

So then, if the "everyday" player has always been at the mercy of these whales, whether they be in the form of CAW or anything else...how have things actually changed all that much for these everyday players?

Whereas before, whales could count on their superior "handicapping" ability to generate a few percentages in profit....now they have to rely on rebates to make up the bulk of their profit as the masses have become "smarter."

But who says they are profiting more NOW than they did back then?

Maybe they are, and maybe they aren't.

If they aren't, how does this negatively impact the everyday player more than before?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

No.

If you go back to 2003-2004 the percentage of handle attributable to CAW was lower... Imo somewhere between 10% and 15%.

Imo, that wasn't because the largest computer teams weren't betting significant amounts. Hint: They were.

Imo, percentage of handle attributable to CAW of between 10% and 15% was because handle and participation by the everyday horseplayer was much larger back then than it is today.

According to stats at the Jockey Club website, North American handle peaked in 2003.

Starting in about 2005 or so, track management and horsemen led alphabet groups began implementing changes... higher takeout, ever increasing track signal fees, source market fee in state after state, and denying track signals to independently owned ADWs, etc.

Those changes had an effect. Everyday horseplayers began betting less.

Over the years, as takeout went higher, as signal fees were raised with each new signal contract, as source market fee was implemented in state after state, as indepently owned ADWs disappeared:

Everyday horseplayers were driven from the game.

Handle from the most sophisticated players has been shrinking over the years too.

But not nearly as fast as handle from the everyday horseplayer who is still the backbone of this game.


-jp

.

I think you left off one thing.

As much as people hated NYC OTB, it used to handle a high percentage of the "unsophisticated money" in the pools. When it closed, NYRA captured a lot of the NYC OTB telephone betting customers and added more, but the industry did not retain "all" the casual neighborhood players that used to just hang out, socialize, and bet through the windows. I know many neighborhood guys that used to play almost every day that stopped when NYC OTB closed. The industry also lost a lot of the very casual players that only played the Triple Crown and Breeder's Cup. They weren't serious enough to open ADW accounts just to get a bet in a few times a year. They were interested enough to walk a few blocks a few times a year.

Those people bet everything.

Some of those branches handled a lot of money and it was all dead money.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

So then, if the "everyday" player has always been at the mercy of these whales, whether they be in the form of CAW or anything else...how have things actually changed all that much for these everyday players?

Whereas before, whales could count on their superior "handicapping" ability to generate a few percentages in profit....now they have to rely on rebates to make up the bulk of their profit as the masses have become "smarter."

But who says they are profiting more NOW than they did back then?

Maybe they are, and maybe they aren't.

If they aren't, how does this negatively impact the everyday player more than before?

Read the report at the link that CJ posted (above.)

Imo, the section about HVBS (High Volume Betting Shop) handle is spot on.


-jp

.