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Old 05-15-2016, 12:32 AM   #1
VigorsTheGrey
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On the Morning Line

It is common knowledge that the morning line odds maker sets his odds according to how he thinks the public will bet.

What are the beliefs these odds makers maintain about the public in order to arrive at their conclusions?

When does the Daily Racing Form receive the odds from the Tracks?

Since the Daily Racing Form is not printed yet, what information package do the morning line odds makers use to evaluate with?

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Old 05-15-2016, 12:27 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey


When does the Daily Racing Form receive the odds from the Tracks?
My assumption is that the DRF has access to track odds once they are published to Equibase, which is the recipient of the final program file from the track, generally sent on the next entry day following the entry day for the line in question.

More simply - you enter Monday for Friday, for example, produce an overnight after the races are drawn on Monday, the program is generated, the odds set then added to the program draft, then the program checked and re-checked, then eventually sent to Equibase the following entry day - in our example, probably on Tuesday morning as they fill Saturday's races.

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Since the Daily Racing Form is not printed yet, what information package do the morning line odds makers use to evaluate with?
Once the overnight is generated and sent to Equibase following that entry day's draw, DRF begins to generate past performances based on the file Equibase received from the track. Not all that long after a final, generated overnight is sent to Equibase from a track, that day's DRF PP's will appear on their website for download and use in helping set the line. If that goes haywire or something, you can also generate the EQB style past performances or use the program past performances if need be since that is what you are generating during the process anyway.

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What are the beliefs these odds makers maintain about the public in order to arrive at their conclusions?
I can't speak for anyone else except maybe a handful or so of people that do it/have done it and if I'm understanding correctly, I guess the only real way to answer is just to state that it ultimately is motivated by an intimate knowledge and familiarity with the circuit itself, most importantly the way horses/trainers/jockeys take action and something of an innate way of looking at a pile of these factors on paper and make assumptions about the shape of the betting the way that if handicapping you would look at the same thing and make assumptions about the shape of the race flow or something.

That was a hell of a run-on sentence and rather than break it up into three sentences like I should I'm going to leave it as is for posterity. The closest thing I can come to in my experience in order to give you an actual example that answers that question would be for our small, cheap track at the time, the day of the week was a major consideration. We ran two days on weekends and then the two following week days. Being a small track, our signal was overshadowed on weekends and most of our handle was much lower and more concentrated on-track and in-state simulcast than it was when the signal had vastly less competition on the early weekdays. We handled a lot more those days and so a horse that might have gotten a big $1000 win bet by a big betting owner on weekend card and made his horse 2-5 shows up and does the same thing on a Tuesday when the pools are significantly larger and those types of wagers or wiseguy horses just don't soak the pools the way that they would on a weekend card. Anyway, there's about the only tangible, semi-conscious consideration of the public in the way that you phrased it that I can come up with on two coffees.
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Old 05-16-2016, 02:43 AM   #3
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let's start from beginning,,,Owner has new 2 yr old ready to race...looks at condition book....finds race in two weeks for colt's 1st race...

Track records previous workout info where? Does Track have clocker on payroll? Clocker gives times to who? How does the relationship between Equibase and the Track work?

I guess I can go down the the Racing Sec's office and ask some questions....just curious about how things work who coordinates all this compiling? ....Between Track, Racing Form and Equibase?

Anyone seen a flow chart of this process?

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Old 05-16-2016, 11:52 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
...

Track records previous workout info where? Does Track have clocker on payroll? Clocker gives times to who? How does the relationship between Equibase and the Track work?

...
Track pays clockers. Clockers time horses and (well they used to; younguns probably have spreadsheets on laptops) enter them into a chart/log/whatever by hand. Then, as time allows, they log into Equibase and enter them into the database. Once training has ended, they finish up entering all the workers for the day into the database, and usually print off a hard copy to give to the racing office to copy and distribute.
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:10 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
let's start from beginning,,,Owner has new 2 yr old ready to race...looks at condition book....finds race in two weeks for colt's 1st race...

Track records previous workout info where? Does Track have clocker on payroll? Clocker gives times to who? How does the relationship between Equibase and the Track work?

I guess I can go down the the Racing Sec's office and ask some questions....just curious about how things work who coordinates all this compiling? ....Between Track, Racing Form and Equibase?

Anyone seen a flow chart of this process?

Do you feel workouts are more important than breeding, jockey, trainer, and competition?
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:40 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by davew
Do you feel workouts are more important than breeding, jockey, trainer, and competition?
I'm starting to focus on workouts as a super key element in handicapping.

All of the four things you mention above are also key elements...lately I've been completely absorbed in the whole process which is helping...because I'm becoming more familiar with all the elements involved.

How do you feel about workouts? What do you look for?

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Old 05-17-2016, 04:02 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
I'm starting to focus on workouts as a super key element in handicapping.

All of the four things you mention above are also key elements...lately I've been completely absorbed in the whole process which is helping...because I'm becoming more familiar with all the elements involved.

How do you feel about workouts? What do you look for?
Workouts related to trainer preferences/patterns (for workouts) rather than considering the workouts as standalone indicators.
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Old 05-17-2016, 04:15 PM   #8
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Is this thread about Morning Lines, Workouts or both? And how reliable/how much work do you think actually goes into them? There are past answers in many other threads, by the way. But admittedly a lot to search and read through.
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Old 05-17-2016, 04:35 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Steve 'StatMan'
Is this thread about Morning Lines, Workouts or both? And how reliable/how much work do you think actually goes into them? There are past answers in many other threads, by the way. But admittedly a lot to search and read through.
It is about morning lines and how they are set....I don't understand the usefulness of the ML and wish it would just not be used anymore....it is wrong so often when you compare all the horses final odds...you can't say that any real effort is put in along realistic lines....the standardized versions are......2, 3, 5, 15, 20, 30, 50... None of which ends up being accurate in the final odds....and even if they are, so what? Just let the odds develop as they occur in real time...does the public really care what they are likely to bet ahead of the actual betting? I think we would get bigger average payoffs if the morning line was eliminated and that would be good for racing bettors...
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Old 05-17-2016, 06:25 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
It is about morning lines and how they are set....I don't understand the usefulness of the ML and wish it would just not be used anymore....it is wrong so often when you compare all the horses final odds...you can't say that any real effort is put in along realistic lines....the standardized versions are......2, 3, 5, 15, 20, 30, 50... None of which ends up being accurate in the final odds....and even if they are, so what? Just let the odds develop as they occur in real time...does the public really care what they are likely to bet ahead of the actual betting? I think we would get bigger average payoffs if the morning line was eliminated and that would be good for racing bettors...
I want to offer some push back on this, while I agree the ML serves little purpose to me personally, it does help me win money!!!

The average handicapper uses it, I bet most people here use it to a certain extent. I use it everyday to find likely value in races. While the number is often wrong the order of horses is usually pretty accurate, meaning the favorite is likely the PT favorite or close to, and the 2nd horse ML is most likely either 1-3 choice come post time. Now there are glaring examples where this is not true but over the long run.

Take that into consideration.

Now the track dummy who is having beers with friends and throwing a 20 win bet at a horse, is going to use them more than us, but that is to our advantage over the long haul....dumb money becomes my money.
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Old 05-17-2016, 06:28 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
It is about morning lines and how they are set....I don't understand the usefulness of the ML and wish it would just not be used anymore....it is wrong so often when you compare all the horses final odds...you can't say that any real effort is put in along realistic lines....the standardized versions are......2, 3, 5, 15, 20, 30, 50... None of which ends up being accurate in the final odds....and even if they are, so what? Just let the odds develop as they occur in real time...does the public really care what they are likely to bet ahead of the actual betting? I think we would get bigger average payoffs if the morning line was eliminated and that would be good for racing bettors...
I assume people betting horizontal exotics would find an accurate morning line useful.
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Old 05-17-2016, 07:02 PM   #12
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I assume people betting horizontal exotics would find an accurate morning line useful.
Yes, I understand this...but I would prefer if all bettors were on equal ground with regard to horizontals...the ML nudges the P2,3,4,5,6...betters toward horses that may or may not have improved chances of winning, why should the Tracks be so "altruistic" with regard to this?

Let the bettors decide for themselves, instead of pushing odds on them to start....the horizontals would pay much better that way, and you would have more action in the pools as a result of better payouts...thus handle increases for the Tracks because you have more initial uncertainty....a no-brainer.

Now we just need to convince the Tracks of this....it is better for everyone...
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Old 05-17-2016, 09:50 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Yes, I understand this...but I would prefer if all bettors were on equal ground with regard to horizontals...the ML nudges the P2,3,4,5,6...betters toward horses that may or may not have improved chances of winning, why should the Tracks be so "altruistic" with regard to this?

Let the bettors decide for themselves, instead of pushing odds on them to start....the horizontals would pay much better that way, and you would have more action in the pools as a result of better payouts...thus handle increases for the Tracks because you have more initial uncertainty....a no-brainer.

Now we just need to convince the Tracks of this....it is better for everyone...
If you think the people driving most of the betting are using the morning line to make their wagers, you're out of touch. I'd think a professional gambler like yourself would know better than that.
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Old 05-17-2016, 11:04 PM   #14
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If you think the people driving most of the betting are using the morning line to make their wagers, you're out of touch. I'd think a professional gambler like yourself would know better than that.
I'm not a professional gambler, just a weekend hobbyist with an intense interest in horse racing... The Pros make their own lines I've read so the Track don't make it for them really...

I think maybe the Tracks continue to have a ML because they know uninformed bettors will blindly gravitate toward low MLs in the horizontal bets...without some direction bettors would bet less...that must be the case...if it was otherwise and the bettors would bet more without a ML, the Track would have already abandoned the use of it...but it should at least be put to a test and a trial done on it at a major Track....
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