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Old 07-26-2020, 10:39 PM   #1
Bigadam119
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In a Slump

I’m in a slump the last month or so. It’s been really bad the first two weeks of the Saratoga meet. I’m just not seeing winners or place or show horses for that matter. I’m not the greatest handicapper, but I’ve been taught a lot on here by all of you. This has helped me to have some decent days and make a few nice bets.
I would seem to have more of those decent days during the Saratoga meet as the big fields and “hidden horses” being pointed to the meet would help my style. As I said, this year it’s been tough so far.

With that being said, what do you do in the tough stretches?
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Old 07-26-2020, 11:32 PM   #2
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Take a week off, don't watch, listen or read anything about racing at all. Or, select a type of race you are usually interested in and only look at those races or try to handicap the races in a totally different way than you are right now. We all go thru this, and I mean EVERYBODY. It will go away, the bad news is, it will come back again, it's like the tide. As long as you come to the grips that it happens it will be easier to deal with next time.
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Old 07-26-2020, 11:55 PM   #3
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Are you betting Saratoga because of the name of the track? There are a lot of races running on the weekend! you don't have to bet that track. So many guys love betting Saratoga simply because of the name SARATOGA! Once I started betting horses and not race tracks it changed everything! The same value is at Charles Town as it is at Saratoga!
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Old 07-27-2020, 12:01 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
Are you betting Saratoga because of the name of the track? There are a lot of races running on the weekend! you don't have to bet that track. So many guys love betting Saratoga simply because of the name SARATOGA! Once I started betting horses and not race tracks it changed everything! The same value is at Charles Town as it is at Saratoga!
Great post above.....

Saratoga ain’t easy! Never has been. Always one of my terrible tracks over the years.

I can’t play from Texas anymore, But i sucked at Toga and Keeneland.......

You won’t be good everywhere
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Old 07-27-2020, 12:38 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
Are you betting Saratoga because of the name of the track? There are a lot of races running on the weekend! you don't have to bet that track. So many guys love betting Saratoga simply because of the name SARATOGA! Once I started betting horses and not race tracks it changed everything! The same value is at Charles Town as it is at Saratoga!
I never bet a track in the first few weeks of the season. I hate trying to bet a race of 8 horses that raced at 6 different tracks in their last race.

Oops, did I say hate? I meant I don't do it. I don't care how trendy a track is, I don't bet it unless it has a season long enough for the horses and trainers to get settled in and race against each other and establish a record. I have looked at Saratoga often over the years, but I can't remember betting there.

I love blue collar tracks. Months long seasons and a good solid base of predictable trainers and honest claiming horses establishing a credible record of performance.
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Old 07-27-2020, 12:59 AM   #6
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Another issue with tracks such as Saratoga, there are a lot of horses who have been on the shelf for most of 2020 due to Covid and they just came back late June/early July. If you're lucky, you may find one race in a whole card that the whole field has at least 4 or 5 races in 2020 to look at. Most have one or two and one of them is usually on another surface. So.... unless you are a workout Guru...it's tough to assess recent form in this manner.
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Old 07-27-2020, 01:05 AM   #7
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Slumps happen to everyone, it's part of the game.

Everybody is different, so everyone deals with them in different ways. But always remember the most crucial thing is to protect our bankroll when we feel ourselves going bad. Sure, send it in when you're on top of your game. But definitely keep your powder dry when you feel things are off-kilter.

The fact that you are able to recognize a slump is a good thing, for sure. If you develop the ability to back off and regroup a bit during those times, your bankroll will love you for that in the long run, 100 percent.

As for specific advice, it's tough because everyone has different approaches. But generally speaking:

If you feel you are disciplined enough, and you really feel compelled to focus on one track (Saratoga, for example), take a week where you handicap the races WITHOUT betting, and maybe (?) play on paper - at best. BUT really focus on racewatching. That includes the races, replays, and post parades. Just watch it all. For me personally, I find it helps ground me and refresh my focus when I am in a slump. Take the betting out of the equation and get back to basics. Work on your observation skills and when you're ready to return to playing with real money, you're not only fresh, but by that time have also probably found a few horses to put on your watchlist via your (unbiased because you're not betting) race watching.

If you don't feel you have the discipline to watch a week's worth of races without betting, that's fine - no shame in that. But in that case, just take a break. Take a week off and don't watch any races, don't handicap, don't look at PaceAdvantage, etc. etc. etc. Do something else with that time and come back a week (or two) later and you'll probably find you have a completely refreshed focus. We all definitely get stale after a certain amount of time and that can cloud our judgement.

Of course, always consider the fact that there is a ton of randomness in this game and your 'slump' may simply be an extended period of results that have been governed by randomness. It happens from time to time. Out of our control.

Good luck!
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Old 07-27-2020, 06:59 AM   #8
Bigadam119
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First, thank you for all of the replies. Lots of advice to use already.

The Saratoga name definitely is a draw because of the name. It does however seem to fit my style. I keep it pretty simple (learned it hear) and only bet WPS on horses that look to be coming into good form. They’re typically a decent price (5-10 to 1). If I think the favorite is really tough I’ll play an exacta with the favorite and one of those type horses.

The point made about the stoppage is a good point. Maybe this new dimension has changed things a bit and what I’m doing isn’t working for it.

Taking a week off or handicapping without betting sounds like a good idea. It definitely will be tough on Whitney weekend, but I will see how it goes.
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Old 07-27-2020, 07:34 AM   #9
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A lot of good points in this thread. Without knowing what you do, it is hard for me to really read into what you consider a slump. I take on a lot of exotics in my personal play as well as win and exacta betting. Not only pick 4's and pick 5's but tri's and supers as well. When I was playing the thoroughbreds a couple years back I was also big on the super high 5 with the rolling carryovers. I just know I look at racing as a battle field. Not only are you taking on really sharp bettors, but you have to deal with the frustration of not really knowing what the true odds of most horses are until it is too late. Then you have maybe a minute or 2 to make an educated guess of what it is the right thing to do and start making your plays (even though after the race the final odds may paint a completely different picture, but nothing you can do about it). Moreover, in this battle field, I often find the biggest enemy is myself. Poor execution, poor concentration, betting too late (getting shut out of key wagers), betting too early (missing the late drop on a key horse who wasn't the value I thought he was), or flat out playing poorly (failing to hit an easy to find $280 superfecta).

Since I am now playing only harness racing I see race after race of usually over bet (subjective I guess if they win it is hard to say they were over bet) 2/5 shots winning. This also take it emotional toll. I would love to get to the point that I can execute the same whether I have 4 won races in a row and am up a $1000 for the night or have lost 6 races in a row and am down $600. Mainly because most of your opportunities are going to come when you are in the bruised and battered state of having lost multiple races in a row. If you let that bruised and battered state affect your psyche, your results will suffer.

As I do this more I realize that the key questions at the end of the day is did I handicap well and did I bet well (this is a far trickier question to answer and a lot harder to). If I can answer yes to both of those questions that will have me on my way to being successful at this game.

So the answer to the op's question is as best I can, I try to ignore "slumps". If I can day in and day out say I handicapped well and bet well, that is all I can do. Focus on these two things and let the rest work itself out. My handicapping I am pretty content with, the betting end is always work in progress. Rarely do I say I handicapped poorly (I am more guilty of missing individual horses that come back to bite me), but often I find myself very critical of my betting.

By the way if money becomes an issue, than you are either betting too much or you are below break even. It is always better to bet too little and grow a bankroll than to bet too much and destroy a bankroll. This is a long term game. Your long term results will be the sum of all wagers made. So good handicapping, good betting, good habits and good execution are key. Add a sensible and affordable bankroll and you are in business. The rest is just a random walk down horse racing lane.
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:07 AM   #10
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Advice from the book "Handicapping Wizards" has served me well. Eat well, exercise and sleep well.
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:41 AM   #11
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IMO, the slump is a test...to show us the current level of our development as players. If we can withstand the slump while still playing our "best game", then we pass the test. And if the slump leaves us frazzled both financially and emotionally...then we've failed.

In my country they say: "The sea captain reveals himself when the ocean is restless".
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Old 07-27-2020, 12:49 PM   #12
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Slump buster....Bet Ortiz...Any and all.
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Old 07-27-2020, 01:43 PM   #13
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:41 PM   #14
how cliche
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It's simple math. Many great bets in this game have a low probability for success, but payouts inordinately high for how often they win. Most profitable plays hit at or below 20% of the time. Therefore, downswings are standard. You're going to have them. The most satisfying emotion for players is staying true to their process and emerging on the other side, getting unstuck and realizing it will happen again, but you made it through this and will best them moving forward as well. All you have to do is make profitable plays and eventually things will fall into place. Remember, a lot of great bets miss the board. Again, standard.
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Old 07-27-2020, 03:08 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by how cliche View Post
It's simple math. Many great bets in this game have a low probability for success, but payouts inordinately high for how often they win. Most profitable plays hit at or below 20% of the time. Therefore, downswings are standard. You're going to have them. The most satisfying emotion for players is staying true to their process and emerging on the other side, getting unstuck and realizing it will happen again, but you made it through this and will best them moving forward as well. All you have to do is make profitable plays and eventually things will fall into place. Remember, a lot of great bets miss the board. Again, standard.
That is true....

I can't count how many times I handicapped an entire card and selected 3 contenders from each race and had the winner in at least 6 of the 10 races in those three contenders. However, after doing the math, if I would have wagered $2 on all three contenders in each race, I would have still lost money.

This is where the value lines come into play. But if you're not playing live and instead putting in your wagers and going about your day, you can came back later to 6 winners and still be down $20.
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