explain logic of betting vertical exotics

[acorn54]

can someone please explain the logic of betting vertical exotics such as the pick 3 or pick 4. i can understand the pick six, as hitting that is a life changer and is like winning the lottery.
all the readings of intelligent writers who have studied the gambling side of racing, come across as saying, if you don't have a positive expectancy with the win bets you make, you will not have a positive expectancy with any other type of wager you make.
am i missing something, because with the low payoffs in the win spot after take out AND DIME BREAKAGE there is no way i come out ahead, whereas with my long shot plays, betting into large fields i have much more success.

[doctorwin]

Don't forget in Pick 3 bets etc. you don't even get a chance to see the horses.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by doctorwin

Don't forget in Pick 3 bets etc. you don't even get a chance to see the horses.

The same apply for your competition, so this does not make a difference.

[Fox]

Just to clarify, the multi-race bets are horizontal exotics not vertical.

I think the reason you can win in horizontals without having a positive expectation with the individual win bets is because your effective per race takeout percent is lower in the horizontals because the takeout gets spread across races. It is the reason why a win bet parlay will almost always pay significantly less than the exotic payout.

[doctorwin]

Oh it does make a difference because when I do get to see the horses I can eliminate many of them from the win position. I am fairly good at this. Better than the average bettor. This gives me an advantage.

Doctor Win

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

The same apply for your competition, so this does not make a difference.

Most of the competition doesn't even really look at the horses in the post parade. It makes no difference to them, but it takes away an edge you have in other bets if you know what you are looking at in the paddock.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by acorn54

can someone please explain the logic of betting vertical exotics such as the pick 3 or pick 4. i can understand the pick six, as hitting that is a life changer and is like winning the lottery.
all the readings of intelligent writers who have studied the gambling side of racing, come across as saying, if you don't have a positive expectancy with the win bets you make, you will not have a positive expectancy with any other type of wager you make.
am i missing something, because with the low payoffs in the win spot after take out AND DIME BREAKAGE there is no way i come out ahead, whereas with my long shot plays, betting into large fields i have much more success.

Yes, I think you are missing something here.

Theoretically speaking, what you are saying here is correct: you cannot come up with a positive return by summing negative numbers, thus your win bet expectancy seems to dictate the dynamics of vertical exotics. This seems simple and rational but also is nothing else than a fallacy!

This view fails to account for the fact that each vertical exotic represent a complete independent pool, who's payoffs are not a product of the individual win prices.

In vertical exotics what counts the most, is to hit at least one long shot which combined even with a sequence of terrible underlays can be sufficient to elevate your payouts to the extreme. Keep in mind that these kind of pools tend to not present effective markets, meaning that there might exist some combinations that will multiply the effectiveness of a mare win parlay.

The more visible a market is the more effective it will become. The win markets of three consecutive races, consisting of 10 horses each, will always be more effective than the derived pick 3. This is happening exactly because the 10 betting options in each race consist the most obvious and visible betting option, something that is driving the betting crown to bet each starter very close to each winning chances. The same does not apply for the P3 which consists of 1,000 betting options, as not only their number is 100 time larger than each individual win bet but on top of it, the corresponding payouts are not visible to the crowd, which now does not have the same capacity to correct the prices.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Most of the competition doesn't even really look at the horses in the post parade. It makes no difference to them, but it takes away an edge you have in other bets if you know what you are looking at in the paddock.

I do not agree.

If paddock handicapping has any effectiveness at all, it has to be reflected in the pool regardless of how many are actually looking at the horses. Just a few trained eyes should be enough to correct the pools..

[acorn54]

delta, i made a mistake i meant to say horizontal exotics. as for exactas and triples in 6 or 7 horse fields, if you can win them at the high rate one needs to, to profit, my hat is off to you. as for looking at the horses in the paddock, they all look the same to me lol.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by acorn54

delta, i made a mistake i meant to say horizontal exotics. as for exactas and triples in 6 or 7 horse fields, if you can win them at the high rate one needs to, to profit, my hat is off to you. as for looking at the horses in the paddock, they all look the same to me lol.

I think we both made a mistake: You are referring to P3/ P4 as vertical and in my posting I am continuing the same definition! It is obvious that my posting was targeting horizontals...

I agree, that verticals are different than horizontals and way more complicated and difficult to beat...

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I do not agree.

If paddock handicapping has any effectiveness at all, it has to be reflected in the pool regardless of how many are actually looking at the horses. Just a few trained eyes should be enough to correct the pools..

This is a minor issue, but I don't see how. I just looked at the last card at Parx. On track handle was $42K, off track was $1.4 million. The TVG feed is essentially worthless for judging physicality, and the announcers rarely discuss it.

No matter. I know it gives me an edge and it is one reason I don't play horizontals. Different strokes for different folks.

[doctorwin]

Physical handicapping is best when used to identify happy and healthy horses or to identify horses with mental or physical problems. This methods have helped me both win money and claim good horses all my life. The physicality factor maybe one reason why almost all handicapping contests are contested one race at a time.

Doctor Win

[green80]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Most of the competition doesn't even really look at the horses in the post parade. It makes no difference to them, but it takes away an edge you have in other bets if you know what you are looking at in the paddock.

What is it that you think you are going to spot that the track vet doesn't see?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by green80

What is it that you think you are going to spot that the track vet doesn't see?

If a horse is edgy or nervous or rank or sweating excessively in the paddock, it is using up energy that will not be available to it at the end of the race. If a horse is sore or tired, that can also be seen in the way it stands or walks. The track vet isn't going to say boo about any of that.

There have been books written and videos made on using physicality as a handicapping tool. I use it largely as a negative factor. If my top pick doesn't look like it is ready to run, I pass the race. It doesn't happen very often, but I have rarely regretted my decision. And if the horse looks especially fit and eager, like well toned muscles and dappled skin, it gives me all the more confidence.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by Clocker

If a horse is edgy or nervous or rank or sweating excessively in the paddock, it is using up energy that will not be available to it at the end of the race. If a horse is sore or tired, that can also be seen in the way it stands or walks. The track vet isn't going to say boo about any of that.

There have been books written and videos made on using physicality as a handicapping tool. I use it largely as a negative factor. If my top pick doesn't look like it is ready to run, I pass the race. It doesn't happen very often, but I have rarely regretted my decision. And if the horse looks especially fit and eager, like well toned muscles and dappled skin, it gives me all the more confidence.

I used to always go down to the paddock, and I have seen many horses who looked sweaty and jittery win with ease.

As for the horizontals, Dick Mitchell used to say that there were great overlays in the pick-3. Of course the bet was new back then and probably not played properly, but he was right--there was value there.

Now, I think the value has gone away.