When the card looks too chalky, that may be when it is best to play long shots. In order for you to take down the whole pool a bunch of unexpected events need to occur.
I think the best strategy is to not try to win the whole shebang, but to take advantage of all the money being bet on improbable combos thus raising the payout for the logical winners.
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“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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