Randomness and False Narratives

[Mc990]

I keep hearing about the new points system being the reason favorites are 5 for the last 5 but I'm not sure I'm buying it... The sample size is just not large enough.

For example, what if we expanded it to include the top 2 finishers? The narrative would change completely and the last 5 years would look a whole lot like the previous 5 (based on average odds for top 2 finishers).

An argument that I hear a lot relates to pace now that it's more difficult for sprinters to qualify... A quick look at recent fractions though show that they are well within range of what we've historically seen since the introduction of the auxiliary gate.

Also, some interesting food for thought...... what if Baffert would have stuck to his original plan and shipped Justify to Oaklawn? What would Bolt's odds be derby day? What will they be now?

IMO, he's the value horse and a must use if you're weighing number power vs odds. Reminds me a little of Street Sense with his big 2 year old number and solid 2 prep campaign. You'll get better than 9/2 this time around though...

[classhandicapper]

There's no doubt in my mind the SA Derby was the best prep so far.

The only issue I have with Justify is trip related. He got loose comfortably in the SA Derby while setting average fractions (the track was slow). The Kentucky Derby often has fast fractions because of the large field and presence of multiple speed and stalker types. No doubt Justify can relax and sit of the pace, but sometimes those paces are so quick even being a few lengths off is a little too fast.

I thought Bolt D Oro also ran a terrific race.

He was forced into the uncomfortable position of chasing a faster horse because there was no other quality speed. That's not his game. In the Derby he'll be able to sit back further and make one run later.

Will the change of setup be enough to turn the table?

Obviously, I don't know. I think Justify is the superior horse and may have more in the tank than he has shown so far. But at 10F with a lively pace he could be a little vulnerable with so little seasoning going long.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There's no doubt in my mind the SA Derby was the best prep so far.

The only issue I have with Justify is trip related. He got loose comfortably in the SA Derby while setting average fractions (the track was slow). The Kentucky Derby often has fast fractions because of the large field and presence of multiple speed and stalker types. No doubt Justify can relax and sit of the pace, but sometimes those paces are so quick even being a few lengths off is a little too fast.

I thought Bolt D Oro also ran a terrific race.

He was forced into the uncomfortable position of chasing a faster horse because there was no other quality speed. That's not his game. In the Derby he'll be able to sit back further and make one run later.

Will the change of setup be enough to turn the table?

Obviously, I don't know. I think Justify is the superior horse and may have more in the tank than he has shown so far. But at 10F with a lively pace he could be a little vulnerable with so little seasoning going long.

The fact that Justify was loose, bolt lost about a length in ground and the potential pace dynamics in the Derby are enough for me to take a shot on him to turn the tables at probably 2.5-3 times the price of Justify.

I keep hearing about how Bolt bounced or how he is done and Ruis doesn't have a clue.... it seems to me that he is going to look pretty appetizing on a lot of different figures though... TG, Beyer, Timeform. Not sure how he looks on Ragozin.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Mc990

The fact that Justify was loose, bolt lost about a length in ground and the potential pace dynamics in the Derby are enough for me to take a shot on him to turn the tables at probably 2.5-3 times the price of Justify.

I keep hearing about how Bolt bounced or how he is done and Ruis doesn't have a clue.... it seems to me that he is going to look pretty appetizing on a lot of different figures though... TG, Beyer, Timeform. Not sure how he looks on Ragozin.

I agree. I was at first a little down on Bolt after the Santa Anita but I go back to his San Felipe which produced honest fractions. He made a nice well timed move to chase from the outside as they were getting ready to turn for home. Equibase gave that race a 118 figure which to my knowledge is the highest this season and the highest ever in the San Felipe. The Santa Anita Derby by comparison was a 108. Not bad "regression". That seems to be a high floor. Always the chance the Santa Anita winner regresses a bit off that new top too.