Knock on Wood Memorial

[f2tornado]

Shaping up to be a decent renewal. Enticed looks tough but keep an eye on King Zachary. This is a big step up but the horse looked dang good in last two outings. He has Mr. P on top and Buckpasser through the bottom. Like Hofburg in the FL Derby, I expect him to be an underlay. If the Baffert was that good he would not have been targeting the Sunland. Likely overbet and I will leave off the exacta. I have not perfected by wagers yet but likely to box and play underneath.

1. Heartfullofstars, Philip D’Amato, Dylan Davis, 20-1

2. Firenze Fire, Jason Servis, Manuel Franco, 6-1

3. Evaluator, Michael Dilger, Kendrick Carmouche, 20-1

4. Old Time Revival, Kenneth Decker, Jeremy Rose, 6-1

5. Enticed, Kiaran McLaughlin, Junior Alvarado, 6-5

6. Catch Twenty Two, Naipaul Chatterpaul, Luis Reyes, 50-1

7. King Zachary, Dale Romans, Robby Albarado, 20-1

8. Restoring Hope, Bob Baffert, Flavien Prat, 4-1

9. Vino Rosso, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 9-2

[horses4courses]

....on Wood

YouTube

[boys at tosconova]

why is prat coming over from west coast for this horse?

[Tom]

Much of the track for this race has been hardly used all year.
8 furlongs is the limit for most NY horses.
Wondering if we will see a really slow first half?

[boys at tosconova]

i was really dissapointed in the way vino ran in the TB derby. i was expecting a much better race. how can you play on top because of it

that said, there is no quip, flameawy or cattlick boy in here..

baffert might have a really good un..lil strange to see prat coming all the to ny

[LoneF]

Tough betting race ...

Definently deserves to be the favorite, but I don’t think the horse should be 6-5 morning line. Do you just accept the too short of a price or try to beat ???

All these horses are real wild cards. They all have shown flashes of huge potential but none of them really have any kind of a resume. Throwing one wild card on a ticket is one thing, but when you start using multiple wild cards it can start getting expensive.

They all seem to be of very similar ability and tough to separate one from another.

Hard to make a case for, but not a horse you can just completely toss out if your playing the tri and super and want to really cover all the bases.

The only horse is in the field that you can comfortably just completely toss out.

[Robert Fischer]

Firenze Fire has somewhat interesting paper form, but has lost my interest of late in the races

Old Time Revival may have been best in the Gotham, but it seemed like an over-achievement. Last time was the time.

Enticed won the Gotham, and looked good visually in the stretch run. 6/5 is preposterous in terms of betting. If he's a lock, you pass the race.
A good performance would further bolster an already strong Kentucky Derby, so he's one of the horses to root for as a fan.

King Zachary is a decent horse. Maybe some value.

Restoring Hope has worked like a stakes horse recently. He's also trained by Bob Baffert. Training up to a jump in class is not itself a big deal for team-B, the only question is whether Restoring Hope has actually moved forward to stakes quality as he's appeared to. I don't know when 'too much of a good thing' begins to apply to a trainer whose horses don't seem to tire at the same rate. 4/1 ml seems generous, but he's not at all battle tested, so an unfavorable pace or trip could break the spell.

Vino Rosso looks a bit low @ 9/2ml. I guess you have to respect Pletcher.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by LoneF

All these horses are real wild cards. They all have shown flashes of huge potential but none of them really have any kind of a resume. Throwing one wild card on a ticket is one thing, but when you start using multiple wild cards it can start getting expensive.

I don't follow SA enough to know the impact of a sealed track on raw time but the has some mild intrigue considering he ran only a tenth slower than Justify a week earlier at same distance on same track with similar conditions. His Brisnet figure was 16 points lower than Justify. Perhaps the track was more dull when Justify ran. Regardless, his final quarter was an uninspiring 26 seconds and substantial improvement is needed to stretch another panel. I don't feel it's any worse a shot than the Baffert entry to hit the gimmick pools but at 5x or better odds. He gets a pilot upgrade with Davis and will have the shortest path around. I think I'll use it on the bottom of some dime super plays.

[jay68802]

Hearfullofstars 20-1 Steady performer, 5 times to break maiden and ran almost the same figure every time. Out.

Firenze Fire 6-1 Best figures in the mud, needs pace help and IMO, there are better closer's in this race. Out.

Evaluator 20-1 2 wins when he got a fast pace, and has a steady improvement of his LP #'s. Underneath.

Old Time Revival 6-1 The speed of the race might make him bold, until he gets to the mile mark. Out.

Enticed 6-5 Hard to look past this one, Mr. Obvious shows the best race by far. Top 2 for sure.

Catch Twenty Two 50-1 Gets blinkers for the first time, and can finish his second race. Out.

King Zachary 20-1 Sat on a slow pace and looked good, no match for others in here. Out.

Restoring Hope 4-1 Typical Baffert work pattern, probably set for a good one. 2nd or 3rd.

Vino Rosso 9-2 EP running style should change here. Going to make a late run and is the best closer in the group. The Pick.

[Robert Fischer]

I really like D'Amato, and he has solid figures, but I'm not crazy about the slow-to-change or failure-to-change leads footwork with the HEARTFULLOFSTARS.

[jay68802]

Never let someone talk you off a long shot

So, so true.

[boys at tosconova]

"Catch Twenty Two" 50-1

lol

[Afleet]

not sure what the track condition is going to be but I like in that order and will play the to WP

[boys at tosconova]

man,..this is one weak field. enticed doesn;t look like super lock to win imo either. but the other choices are lol

as much as i wrote off and lost a bunch on vino, he can run a meh race and prolly be right there. however that TB drby was baaaaaad.

so if i think these thins the next horse has be restoring hope. you prolly won't even get acceptable odds on him either.

[Secondbest]

Michael Pizzolla likes King Zachery. But only at a price.