blue grass stakes not presented by yum brands

[boys at tosconova]

2018 Blue Grass Stakes Odds & Entries

Race 10 on Keeneland's Saturday card with a Post Time of 6:23 PM

Entry Horse ML Odds Jockey Trainer

1 Zing Zang 30-1 Shaun Bridgmohan Steve Asmussen
2 Sporting Chance 10-1 Luis Saez D. Wayne Lukas
3 California Night 30-1 Tyler Gaffalione Mike Maker
4 Kanthaka 10-1 Julien Leparoux Jerry Hollendorfer
5 Quip 6-1 Florent Geroux Rodolphe Brisset
6 Marconi 15-1 Ryan Moore Todd Pletcher
7 Blended Citizen 15-1 Kyle Frey Doug O'Neill
8 Gotta Go 30-1 Ian Wilkes Chris Landeros
9 Tiz Mischief 30-1 Corey Lanerie Dale Romans
10 Free Drop Billy 5-1 Irad Ortiz Jr. Dale Romans
11 Good Magic 2-1 Jose Ortiz Chad Brown
12 Flameaway 6-1 Jose Lezcano Mark Casse
13 Machismo 20-1 Jake Radosevich Anthony Quartarolo
14 Arawak 30-1 Fernando de la Cruz Doug O'Neill

[boys at tosconova]

my initial thoughts after a cursory glance at the program

the 10 and 11 have to be on the engine early from out there..the good news is it looks like clear sailing until you reach the 5.. the bad news is these horses will be short priced.

i have no clue what the 13 and 14 are going to do at the start of the race. either of these runners are capable of gunning, and from what i've read that's the plan w/ the 14

i would really like to see some type of duel here, but i don't know if that will happen. i guess the maybe the 2 or 3 can add to a potentially fast pace, but the 3 might be too cheap and i just can't see the 2 arguing the issue that much when he should be in decent position just off of the pace. dunno wut the 4 will do. no mcNugget or bolt cola in here

what if the 2/3/4/5 all leave a lil hard for positioning? the outside horses get the big rutro imo. do you really think good magic is going to make multiple moves and win if he's forced into it after leaving the gate?

i plan to watch the foy replay for more info

[boys at tosconova]

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.

Jeepers creepers! i loved that horse, now you got me thinking! (something i'm not to good at these days)

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

i don't think there's any chance they'll push quip hard here already having 50 points

i would be shocked if he doesn't yield to the outside horses and should be looking for a soft leave.

He might not have to be pushed hard. Ideal post for his style and, if last year is any guide, the track services front runners well.

[jay68802]

Bluegrass Stakes

Zing Zang 30-1 Morning line says it all. Looks to be a solid Allowance runner. Gets the short way around and needs a complete breakdown. Out

Sporting Chance 10-1 Not much depth to the running style, has to very close to the pace. Has two choices and neither one is good. Get on the pace and hope not to be run down, or settle and be in a position that has proven he does not like to be in. Out.

California Night 30-1 Has one chance and that is wire to wire. Can go fast enough early to be in the lead, but can't finish fast enough. Out.

Kanthaka 10-1 Finished 6 behind a horse that would be favored heavily here. And that was the first time at a route. Needs a little trip help somewhere here but has a outside chance. Contender.

Quip 6-1 Solid in last start and gets close to the same trip here. The pace might be faster, and might find himself between horses. Last speed figure says he is a contender, will have to prove it is not a fluke. Pass.

Marconi 15-1 Improving, but has shown at this level to be a chaser. Even with a solid trainer, can't endorse. Out.

Blended Citizen 15-1 Hate horses like this. Shows speed figures that can win, but on a different surface. Play the %'s here and use underneath.

Gotta Go 30-1 Should be named Keeps Going. Steady eddy would be a suprise. Out.

Tiz Mischief 30-1 Slow early, and to slow late. Out.

Free Drop Billy 5-1 4 have been at the reins on this one. Tells me the connections believe in him. Makes me a little wary. Not a fan of this one and do not know why. Use underneath.

Good Magic 2-1 1 win in 4 starts is a concern at the price. Contender.

Flameaway 6-1 Forgive the last for lack of pace. Has the right running style and is the pick.

Machismo 20-1 Like this one, did not regress much when stretched out in last. Needs some trip help but is outside and can make something happen. Contender.

Arawak 30-1 Pipe dream. Think the last race was a fluke. Out.

[Robert Fischer]

Zing Zang hopes to suck-up and get a pace collapse. Doesn't seem good enough

Sporting Chance I thought he ran OK last time. If he gets a good trip, he could hit the board.

California Night Easy trips. Some unknown, but I'm tossing.

Kanthaka Has had really good trips and yet to prove he can make his own race. Out of my exacta, but you can't discount from 3rd or 4th.

Quip Not familiar with this guy. Will need to watch races / handicap.

Marconi Ran well against the grain last time. I'm not a fan, but he looks like he will hit the board underneath.

Blended Citizen Tossing here.

Gotta Go do not like

Tiz Mischief didn't catch my eye

Free Drop Billy can't toss from underneath, but I don't want him on top, and he's going to be an underlay everywhere.

Good Magic Ran fine last time. Was hoping for a better betting situation, but this is a good prep/points situation for the horse. Key.

Flameaway Have to re-watch. I like the connections for a board spot.

Machismo Love his last race. Fair trip and he's a win contender. I forget how close the 1st turn is to the starting gate. I hope the trainer isn't overzealous about being on the pace. Patience and trip is key.

Arawak not good enough

[f2tornado]

Zing Zang Needs a massive pace collapse and even then I just can't see him improving enough after his lastfour very consistent but middling starts.

Sporting Chance His Rebel pace parameters are close to par for this race. I'll give him a sporting chance to hit bottom of gimmicks.

California Night Has Mr. P on top and sometimes those are late bloomers. Nothing really wrong with the pedigree but he's no Irap. Gimmicks bomber if the speed holds.

Kanthaka Another Mr. P and strong tail female Court Dress. Dosage of 5.67 suggests 9F is a stretch. Could pick up a minor share again but this field is deeper than last.

Quip Mr. P on top and Chit Chat in tail female. He gets one professional dosage point with his 3.00 DI. 9F should not be asking too much He might have more pace pressure early this time but obtained respectable figure in Tampa and had nice recent work at the track. Further, he previously won on the surface was excellent rider. Track has played to his style since conversation to dirt. Strong contender.

Marconi FOY looks better on paper than it did in person. This horse has 30 dosage points including two solid. DI 2.75, CD 0.67. Artless is strong tail female. This one won't beat you with speed but could very well out grind the competition as distance increases. This would be a good pick if there was a Belmont future pool. Passing from the win pool but likely in my gimmicks. Note: elite turf rider Ryan Moore who is suddenly enjoying success on the dirt gets the mount.

Blended Citizen I like Mr. P. Horse had done well at distance but it's a dice roll for the surface. If he handles it reasonable well then could be flying late. Respect, but am inclined to use outside the win pool.

Gotta Go This horse has a sprinter pedigree. If he hits the board then I'll be tearing up all my tickets.

Tiz Mischief Has a route win over the surface. Dosage is weak but does have Tribonyx in tail female. Got spanked by Audible in Holy Bull. Could hit bottom of super with a little pace help.

Free Drop Billy If you think Audible is that good then this guy isn't far behind. Addition of Irad Ortiz is a big plus. Has a win over the surface. Dosage line looks nice for the distance. No reason this guy cannot contend to at least be in the picture. Not sure how to play him but perhaps will utilize middle and bottom of gimmicks.

Good Magic I can forgive the FOY. That performance is par for Bluegrass winner. Chad Brown is a master of the 2nd and 3rd from the layoff. Horse is working well. Post is a concern for his style. Win contender and must use in the gimmicks. I'll play him but maybe not too hard.

Flameaway One of those horses I don't really like but always runs a good race. 9F might be a stretch for this one but he has shown enough late foot to pass anything tiring in the stretch. Will consider where to play in the gimmicks but won't be on top.

Machismo Likely overmatched here but dosage profile suggests 9F is not too tall a task. Post hurts given style. Maybe worth using to add value on bottom of super.

Arawak Post is a killer. Maybe the shades will allow him to lay back. Flattened last time and expect the same only worse this time. Dosage of 7.00 is not enticing for distance. Toss.

[Immortal6]

Haven't looked at pps for the race yet but knowing the entries and their running styles this is a tough race to handicap, but I'll go with two closers Kanthaka and Blended Citizen on top. Kanthaka got a bad start in his first route try so he can be forgiven, and BC made a very impressive move turning for home in the Spiral with a fast final fraction.

After using these two on top it's a bit of a crapshoot. Honestly think that the are the only 3 horses not contending for a top 3 finish. Will look to toss Good Magic from the win/place spots after his last performance.

/ /

$24 tri

[boys at tosconova]

some very good points keep them coming.

i will give my toughts on the horses in a bit. followed by potential race scenarios and outcomes

[boys at tosconova]

Zing Zang - i don't even think you can count the one hole as post relief for this type of horse. from what i've read he need clear sailing and not have horses around him. the rail might be the worst spot for him. he did only lose to the 2 by <2L in what was sporting chances first start in five months. looks like the best case would be a 4/5th place finish in a dream scenario fast pace and parting of the red sea

Sporting Chance - 3rd off the bench. obv could improve, but to be honest the rebel was pretty dissapointing, especially since he was supoose to be better there. he did beat free drop billy in a big G1 sprint race at toga as a 2yr old. so that should/might be in your mind as free drop has the feel of a horse that will have smart money on him

California Night - looks like cheap speed that might not even translate into speed vs these. that doesn't mean he won't argue early and potentially mess up the good horses, it means he might not be able to. dream scenario would to be in an up close position in slow times and hang on for a racing check. it;s obv he could get better, but it just doesn't seem like it will be enough if he does.

Kanthaka - horse has to take some money just finishing 3rd to both mc and bolt. and routes for only the 2nd time. haven't watched film on his last two graded races yet, but it does look like he will be forwardly placed to avoid trouble here. should be a moderately priced horse that could easily figure in here if he's goot enough.

Quip -horses like this and promise fufilled are great to have when then win at good odds. speed/tact horses are easy to come up with and handicap for the most part. have to like the effort four months off the bench even on a quirky TB track. can he get better, maybe. but the horse was never really well meant ever but continues to outrun what people think he's capable of. this is going to be the 1st race people take notice. and to be honest, the 144 he ran in the TB doesn't want to make me throw my money hand over hand on him on what looks to be a short price.

he does have a great running style, and may continue to get better, as he did run 144 as a 2 yr old as well. but he does already have enough points for the derby, what good would it be form to push here? granted i did say the same thing about PF and didn't think he would be 1st/2nd but nobody could have expected romans and that clown albarodo did to the poor horse creating a pissing match w/ the one. this horse could do many things here

contin....

[boys at tosconova]

Marconi - lightly raced 2million dollar closer frothe pletcher barn, and one of four that came out of the boat race that was the FOY. didn;t really have much of chance there, but it was still a very uneventful, uninspiring race. obv he'll need a pace to run at but it looks easier putting him toward the bottom half here rather than the top being that he's going to be way back. i would only include underneath w/ closers if there's a speed duel. doesn't really seem like a winner, and will be lower than he should

Blended Citizen - looks pretty obv to me the surface change made him better. on that reason alone he should/might have a tough time of it here. he looks like solid closer though and if he takes to the dirt he can easily be around for part of it, but again, if there is no pace and he takes to dirt then what?.."ran evenly for 5th/6th?" high risk, maybe high reward?...especially if he comes in w/ other closers.

Gotta Go- didn;t look like he had much in between horses in the FOY. but i guess the closers can get a pass in that race. but the other 3 looked better he did beat lone sailor and bravazo going a mile at CD @ two. if you throw out his last paceless race and easily ignore the kyG2 troubled trip he merrits some consideration as a closer if there's a pace to run at

Tiz Mischief - free drop beat him by 7L and he lost to flame and quip by 10/11L. he did have a nice close finishing 2nd to enticed and beating promises fufilled in nov. he will no doubt go off at odds higher than he should. you can almost excuse any race that's run @ TB. another horse that will need a fast pace..that makes four in a row

Free Drop Billy - classy horse that's raced everywhere against good horses. no audible in here but his gotham race was somewhat decent imo. he wanted to run early and davis wouldn't let him as they were going quick up front. he raced wide thoughout and in between horses. it was a really good experience for the horse. like the jock switch, and this horse could possibly show further gate speed here as he has the angle to all outside horses and four horses inside him that will drop back.

Good Magic - if he's much better he'll run big here. quite a few strat lines point to it. didn't have much of a shot to win last race nor did they really care if he did. treat is as a good tightener. can't ignore his G1 romp at two beating bolt by almost 6L.

now with the easy part done, how does he do it? well, for starters the horse has to be on the engine early as you have to put the horse in position here and i expect he will be.

you might see a race similar to that of audible in the fla derby. he could possibly float out leave and avoid the speed duel should there be one letting either a combo of the 12/13/14 loop him, or he could just put the petal to the metal and be ridden like he's the best, which is possible, but this could come with dicey results because of it. if by chance he doesn't leave he'll likely be in trouble if he wants to win this race


contin..

[boys at tosconova]

Flameaway - has a 142 @ TB beating catlick boy, and a 2nd to kip in the TB derby where is was cut off at the start and raced diagonally green several times in the race. the horse can be a playa in here. and looks like a playa if he can run in a straight line. what really stinks is that he might do his best racing on the front end, and he might not sniff the front end in here w/o being crispy fried do to the post. the horses 10>14 are a complete wildcard on where they will be when the gate opens.

Machismo - horse was retty solid in the FOY. floated out only to get blindsided and surrounded by horses just after the quarter. he leaves the picture as they turn for home and shakes free only to lose by 2L to good magic finishing 4th. don't know much about the new jock but this post should be murder on the horse as i just don't see him being able to cross over from the 10/11/12 and the horse outside him might be sent on a suicide mission. he could take back and hope for some pace. it's really unfortunate he drew this post as a live longshot


Arawak- didn't the assisstant trainer go on record saying we're gunning even after he got post 14? blinks kind of confirm it as well. horse has some decent races vs lesser but can he run on dirt? doing this also can set up the citizen as well, who only beat him by lil over 1L. also has a decent race early on vs flameaway where it looks like he left from post 13

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Best Blue Grass field I've seen in many a moon.

Arguably the best and deepest Kentucky Derby prep this season, although it may well (and likely) not produce the KD winner.

[Afleet]

Zing Zang carried 118 in the Rebel while Magnum Moon, Solomini, and Combatant carried 115 lbs. Lanerie off is a big plus to me. He will beat at least 1/2 the field. Distance shouldn't be a problem-can't say that for a lot of the others.
2 Sporting Chance not sure what to do w/this one, bottom of tris and supers
Don't think Kanthaka will get the distance.

Quip should get a good trip.

Marconi $2million colt trained by Pletcher who has been winning every other prep it seems like. Bottom of super at best?

generally don't like Proud Citizens' @ 1 1/8
Don't like or

my pick to win it
Good magic should hit the tri but hope he runs out.
hard not to like this one; Scat Daddy's have been looking good this season
like on the bottom only-at best
blinkers on; hung out to dry and would need to improve significantly