Latest question from the newbie

[Jaecubed]

Hi All,

This will be the last time I phrase my Title with the whole "newbie" thing. I'm sure I'm going to trigger someone shortly. LOL

This question really has nothing to do with me learning the sport but more to do with seeing what others thing on the topic of "Luck".

I know a bit about poker so I personally believe that it is a game of skill but what about horse racing? After all the homework is done and you have your pick/picks on a race is there "luck" involved? (Good or Bad).

Be curious to see what others think on this topic.

[Tom]

Luck is a big part of this game.
All of it BAD luck!

You are betting 1000 lb animals with tiny ankles running under the guidance of 100 lb people with tiny brains. Some think they are the Boston Strangler, others think they are shepherds herding sheep.

If you play NYRA, luck will be a huge part of your game.

[JerryBoyle]

My sample size is smaller than most on the board, as I've only been going at this game for a few years now, but luck is definitely a big part of this game, like it is in anything else. Whether it's poker, the stock market, horse racing, sports betting, etc, we all know that there will be randomness. If your sample size is large enough, it won't be the reason you win or lose. I've won and lost races because of crazy events like a jockey falling off or a horse running over the rail and off the track. Even less crazy events like DQs have won and lost me money. That said, this is absolutely a game of skill that can be beaten. Don't forget that you don't have to be the best handicapper in the world, just better than the people against whom you're betting (+track take & breakage).

You'll probably feel the impact of luck more or less depending on your approach to the game. If your approach allows you to wager across thousands of races and many pools a year, you're probably not going to feel the impact of luck as much as if you're betting a few races a week.

[Andy Asaro]

Gotta ask the question..............Are you really a newbie?

[jay68802]

1. I would prefer to be lucky.

2. I would prefer to be lucky and a good handicapper.

3. I would prefer to be a good handicapper.

4. I had some bad luck there, good horse.

5. F%#k this, how the f^#k could that happen, I suck.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by Jaecubed

Hi All,

This will be the last time I phrase my Title with the whole "newbie" thing. I'm sure I'm going to trigger someone shortly. LOL

This question really has nothing to do with me learning the sport but more to do with seeing what others thing on the topic of "Luck".

I know a bit about poker so I personally believe that it is a game of skill but what about horse racing? After all the homework is done and you have your pick/picks on a race is there "luck" involved? (Good or Bad).

Be curious to see what others think on this topic.

Is it luck when a hole that wasn't there all of a suddenly opens up and your horse shoots through?

Luck is often a synonym for probability. Sometimes your number comes up like, "I was lucky to draw a jack as the river card," sometimes it doesn't come up. Luck is simply a short-cut to avoid thinking about why something happened.

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Luck is often a synonym for probability. Sometimes your number comes up like, "I was lucky to draw a jack as the river card," sometimes it doesn't come up. Luck is simply a short-cut to avoid thinking about why something happened.

You can calculate the probability of the jack in the river. You cannot measure the likelihood that a hole will open up, not with any accuracy anyway. You might as well call it luck, karma, a bad break... So no, luck and probability are not synonyms in any practical sense.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Jaecubed

Hi All,

This will be the last time I phrase my Title with the whole "newbie" thing. I'm sure I'm going to trigger someone shortly. LOL

This question really has nothing to do with me learning the sport but more to do with seeing what others thing on the topic of "Luck".

I know a bit about poker so I personally believe that it is a game of skill but what about horse racing? After all the homework is done and you have your pick/picks on a race is there "luck" involved? (Good or Bad).

Be curious to see what others think on this topic.

If the game isn't already tough enough, Luck or randomness plays a role.

We deal with probabilities before a race. After the race it 'feels' like it was simply a matter of choosing the 'correct' horse.

Every betting strategy involves 'value' BEFORE the race. Do the chances and the price equal a bargain for your ticket? Are you sure??

There's a saying in POKER;

Originally Posted by poker players

If you've been playing for 20 minutes, and you don't know who the patsy is... YOU'RE IT!.

That is the kind of edge (you clearly see with relative certainty that the public is getting suckered) that you need in order to try 'beat' the game.

Without that edge there can be wild swings of luck.
We can flip a fair coin (50%), and we'll both probably come out OK. Over the long haul it's possible that one of us could lose(or win, GOOD luck) as many as 13 times in a row. A 2/1 shot (33%) and now we're up to 22 times. Would your bankroll strategy hold up if you caught bad luck or even close? Would a survivable bankroll strategy be too conservative?

Now think about 10-1, 20-1 long shot plays with pick 4's, trifectas, superfectas, Pick-6...
You can really get into some wild swings of Luck...

But that's also what makes it an interesting gambling game.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Jaecubed

Hi All,

This will be the last time I phrase my Title with the whole "newbie" thing. I'm sure I'm going to trigger someone shortly. LOL

This question really has nothing to do with me learning the sport but more to do with seeing what others thing on the topic of "Luck".

I know a bit about poker so I personally believe that it is a game of skill but what about horse racing? After all the homework is done and you have your pick/picks on a race is there "luck" involved? (Good or Bad).

Be curious to see what others think on this topic.

Luck is definitely involved, and if you let it get to you too much you'll drive yourself crazy. When your horse is making a move to the lead and suddenly gets shut off when another ducks into the gap....and it costs you hundreds or thousands....yeah, might need a drink after that.

[Denny]

Handicapping
Betting
Luck

Each to varying degrees

[Jaecubed]

Loving some of the replies so far.

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Gotta ask the question..............Are you really a newbie?

I'm a newbie when it comes to actually trying to handicap and take the game serious. I've played the horses a lot when I was younger... When I was in high school a group of us had early release our Senior year and we use to go to the Saratoga Harness Simulcast. We had no idea what we were doing (still don't) and I'm sure the old timers hated us. The average age back then had to be 63... I swear it! I remember we would cheer & root for a horse we had no action on just because the guy next to us would be yelling for his horse to win. It was comical at the time but now as an adult it was a bit of a DB move. LOL

Originally Posted by jay68802

1. I would prefer to be lucky.

2. I would prefer to be lucky and a good handicapper.

3. I would prefer to be a good handicapper.

4. I had some bad luck there, good horse.

5. F%#k this, how the f^#k could that happen, I suck.

This is funny!

[AstrosFan]

The game has changed a lot! I for one know people who work in the biz, get some great info from them, but I am glad I have never worked in it. I only support it to a certain degree anymore. Blackjack and Baccarat are my go to games.

[Seagoer]

My take.
For example if you have a 30% win rate that means you lose 70% of the time. In the body of the 70 % of loses are bad trips, bad jockey moves, horse falls down, just a bad selection on ones part and so on. It will happen just part of the game and life in general.

To cover the 70% or lets say 7 out of 10 losing wagering units you have to cover this with your 30% of winners or the 3 out of ten winning wagering units.

So lets say the 3 out of 10 wagering win units are 5-1, 4-1, 2-1 = 11 winning units minus the 7 losing units gives you a plus 4 units. That would be your goal in a nutshell.

That is why betting favorites long term you will lose your bank roll because you can't cover the 7 losing units out of ten.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Luck doesn't involve skill. It's just being at the right place at the right time.