after the bell

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Seems like it indicates a cancel to me. Seems unlikely that a 1/9 shot would take less than 15% of the last batch of money that came in.

And I agree that the amount of pool change being so small points in that same direction as well. It does vary quite a bit however from track to track and from race to race. Sometimes the bulk of the money comes in from 1MTP to 0MTP and sometimes 0MTP to final at the same track.

For example WO has the smallest avg change from 0 to final but one of the largest from 1 to 0MTP. Supposedly they're all working with the same 'antiquated' tote system so I don't see why we see variations like that for example a track like HAW has 1-0-F profile of 51%/34% and a track like FNO has 33%/20% when both have avg 50-55k final pool sizes. Who knows...

How the hubs play into all of this offsite pool aggregation is another variable.

Again exchanges (as an option) would put an abrupt end to this type of nonsense for people such as myself who have grown tired of being fodder for what may well even be lesser handicappers quite frankly.

There's no need to do away with the parimutuel system if exchanges are implemented, it would be another option for people who have serious doubts about the integrity of the current system.

in this game you have to question everything you see. there are lots of things that go on that make no sense at all. like horses being bet like longer choices in daily double and pick pools that go down in price after the race starts and win. its just not good to see this.

in the case yesterday, i was watching pools because i was on the eventual winner to show hoping that UNIQUE BELLA could run out. that is the only reason why i happened to have caught the change in money and i was unprepared to take a picture of the pool from before and after.

i say if you ask people that play this game on a regular basis, a very high percentage of them will say that there is some tinkering with the pools when they are supposed to be closed. the moderators on this board are probably very suspicious but just don't have 100% iron clad evidence that something not right is going on.

[Andy Asaro]

If Oaklawn was smart they would have put this to bed by now if it didn't happen. I believe the ability to cancel wagers within a couple seconds from the gate opening has been going on a while now. I kinda hope the allegation is true.

[Andy Asaro]

From Oaklawn by email:

this email and it has been forwarded to our Director of Mutuels and the Director of Racing.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

If Oaklawn was smart they would have put this to bed by now if it didn't happen. I believe the ability to cancel wagers within a couple seconds from the gate opening has been going on a while now. I kinda hope the allegation is true.

I believe its the cancelling of wagers why may be the past posting that is not getting the attention. I also believe people are manipulating the pools with programs that cancel alot of bets within seconds of the race going off.

Pretty big advantage to see the break and then hit cancel.

[PaceAdvantage]

[quote=lamboguy;2302678]

Originally Posted by MJC922

0MTP pool total was 192,410 and the odds were 1/9
Final pool total was 211,285 and the odds were 1/5

That's the most detail i have.[/QUOTE pa has been telling us that 40% of the money has been registering in the pools after the race starts. this, the biggest race of the day only managed 10% from the last flash.

I would imagine in a race with a 1/9 shot in it, there wouldn't be this huge rush of late money, so I'm not surprised it was 10% and not 40%.

40% wouldn't make any sense in this particular race.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I believe its the cancelling of wagers why may be the past posting that is not getting the attention. I also believe people are manipulating the pools with programs that cancel alot of bets within seconds of the race going off.

Pretty big advantage to see the break and then hit cancel.

So these "computer guys" that are supposed to be Nostradamus from a handicapping perspective and John Nash from a mathematical perspective and they put these two talents together to come up with Unique Bella. Then, because of their brilliance, they've found a way to cancel a few strides into the race, and did so on Unique Bella?

C'mon!!! All of this idiotic conjecture without a single iota of proof does little more than perpetuate the myth that all horseplayers are losers and belong to the tinfoil hate community.

I think something strange is happening when the actual winner of the race drops in odds from gate loading to race finish as often as it does. But assuming this has to do with some mythical advantage 4 seconds into the race is highly unlikely and all it does is cloud a true phenomena.

I'd bet every single dollar I'll ever make contact with that there isn't one single person on this forum that could show a profit over a month betting and canceling up to 5 seconds into the race. Hell, I'll bet there isn't anyone that could show a profit with the ability to cancel 20 seconds into a race.

While I'm not ruling ANYTHING out from happening on occasion, I doubt very highly the cancel option 5 seconds into the race has a single thing to do with this issue. And, for the record, to me, the issue is how can the last second tote flash identify the winner as often as it does. To me, that defies common sense and I truly don't know why.

[Irishfever]

Took a screenshot of the money flow at zero mtp to final odds. I just took note that she was the only one who took a substantial drop in money taken out on her.

Some play strategy on prohibitive faves to knock them down hard early so everyone passes race or tries to find value on other horses then cancel late and horses odds rise to get a better return for risk.

But from what people are saying in this case it seems as though someone caught Unique Bella acting up before bell rang or had the ability to cancel shortly after. Worth investigating imo.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Irishfever

Took a screenshot of the money flow at zero mtp to final odds. I just took note that she was the only one who took a substantial drop in money taken out on her.

Some play strategy on prohibitive faves to knock them down hard early so everyone passes race or tries to find value on other horses then cancel late and horses odds rise to get a better return for risk.

But from what people are saying in this case it seems as though someone caught Unique Bella acting up before bell rang or had the ability to cancel shortly after. Worth investigating imo.

Appreciate the work.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

So these "computer guys" that are supposed to be Nostradamus from a handicapping perspective and John Nash from a mathematical perspective and they put these two talents together to come up with Unique Bella. Then, because of their brilliance, they've found a way to cancel a few strides into the race, and did so on Unique Bella?

C'mon!!! All of this idiotic conjecture without a single iota of proof does little more than perpetuate the myth that all horseplayers are losers and belong to the tinfoil hate community.

I think something strange is happening when the actual winner of the race drops in odds from gate loading to race finish as often as it does. But assuming this has to do with some mythical advantage 4 seconds into the race is highly unlikely and all it does is cloud a true phenomena.

I'd bet every single dollar I'll ever make contact with that there isn't one single person on this forum that could show a profit over a month betting and canceling up to 5 seconds into the race. Hell, I'll bet there isn't anyone that could show a profit with the ability to cancel 20 seconds into a race.

While I'm not ruling ANYTHING out from happening on occasion, I doubt very highly the cancel option 5 seconds into the race has a single thing to do with this issue. And, for the record, to me, the issue is how can the last second tote flash identify the winner as often as it does. To me, that defies common sense and I truly don't know why.

I show a profit every year betting the exchange without the ability to cancel wagers whatsoever.

Allan

[lamboguy]

after seeing a few other questionable pools yesterday, i have come to the conclusion that if you are betting big money into any of these pools you need to get your head completely examined at least twice.

personally, after 40 years of this, i have taken a back seat to the game, i am going to take even a further step back for now in the hopes that this mess gets cleaned up fast. i will continue to watch racing and support this board because this might be the only way to get some much-needed change. i think everyone will agree with that.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

after seeing a few other questionable pools yesterday, i have come to the conclusion that if you are betting big money into any of these pools you need to get your head completely examined at least twice.

personally, after 40 years of this, i have taken a back seat to the game, i am going to take even a further step back for now in the hopes that this mess gets cleaned up fast. i will continue to watch racing and support this board because this might be the only way to get some much-needed change. i think everyone will agree with that.

This isn't over and we need people to put pressure on Oaklawn and the tote company to hand over the data.

IMO the longer they take to respond the more likely they cancelled after the gates opened. It only takes a second or less to do it.

[davew]

Irishfever has a point about a 'dubious' method to get higher race odds on heavy favorites.

Bet very heavy very early, towards post time the other horses get corrected - bringing their odds more toward their probabilities. At last second, cancel some or most of your original heavy bet. The heavy favorite odds improve while others drop.

I have seen this many times at small pool venues like greyhound races where the total win pool is frequently under $500.

It is possible a heavy bettor was using this 'strategy' at the time and it was just a coincidence that Unique Bella broke poorly. They might have cancelled their bet 10 seconds before the break.

[Andy Asaro]

This was the ideal race and the ideal horse at the ideal track for an after the bell cancellation IMO. Takes less than a second to see the bad start.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

I show a profit every year betting the exchange without the ability to cancel wagers whatsoever.

Allan

Since the NJ betting exchange opened in mid-2016, that's not a lot to brag about. Yet brag about it constantly you do anyway, even when it's out of context and has nothing to do with the discussion.

[cj]

Personally I think this is really bad even if before the bell. You bet, you're done. Maybe a one minute window for mistakes. Otherwise pool manipulation becomes a big issue. It is bad enough so much money comes in late. Now we can't even trust the money we see in the pool will stay.