PPs: Arkansas Derby G1

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LoneF

I think we can all agree that the Arkansas race came up much tougher than the Santa Anita derby.

Sorry just dont agree

Timeform figures for the top 3 betting choices before the SA Derby

125 131
123 125
118 120

Ark Derby

115 112 tenfold
122 119 solomini
118 112 magnum moon
115 112 combatant

These are multiple races so not just some random good race

I am projecting a forward move from magnum moon but to me one race looks much stronger, and after the race we can add the new figures and compare.

I do agree Tenfold is on the same rush program that Justify is, obviously a talented horse.

[Robert Fischer]

hey... if Tenfold runs a 107BSF/132TFUS I'll bet him in the Derby too.

[boys at tosconova]

really hard to look past the 5 and 6.

solomini and magnum moon.

what i like about solomini is that he won't be even money this week and in all four of his 2yr races he got better in each one. don;t know how much he'll take but it's hard to think he'll even be any value as the 2nd choice either

he wanted to run faster in the rebel but was caught inside in his first race back in over 90 days. he still outfinished combatant as well. no doubt he will much tighter. would not be sursprised to see him on the engine early as well.

as for MM. he ran a race better than the program indicated. he raced wide throughout and drew off late.

[ubercapper]

I am taking a stand with Tenfold as he's on a pattern to really jump up, although he will need to.

At the least if he splits Magnum Moon & Solomini that makes for a decent profit. The Arkansas Derby is a race I published analysis for (free) here https://www.keenelandselect.com/blog...-april-14-2018

[lamboguy]

wow! the Kentucky Derby winner almost has to come out of this loaded up field.

i am going to have to go with TENFOLD, and hope he progressed after the maiden win in Oaklawn.

[SecretAgentMan]

Magnum Moon is the one to beat, & only horse that's scary is Tenfold. Asmussen has 4 horses in this race, Tenfold scares me.

Solomini doesn't scare me at all. I can see him coming along for 3rd & getting enough points to get into the derby.

IMO, its between Magnum Moon & Tenfold.

[Buckeye]

Can I bet Rockamundo again?

But seriously, Magnum Moon should win here.

If not, my second choice is Quip-- these Tampa Bay horses demand respect.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tough race to bet.

Solomini has been a nice gauge for this year's 3YO crop, and is unplayable to me at a short price cause he just doesn't win.. Magnum Moon could easily romp by 4 or more in here. Hard to really see anything else unless I want to stab at Tenfold.

Maybe the play is a bomber for show that might pay $8.20 as a number of horses should be folding up shop late to save for a better day. Then again, best move is likely to sit and watch Magnum Moon and see if he'll challenge Justify for Derby favoritism?

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Tough race to bet.

Solomini has been a nice gauge for this year's 3YO crop, and is unplayable to me at a short price cause he just doesn't win.. Magnum Moon could easily romp by 4 or more in here. Hard to really see anything else unless I want to stab at Tenfold.

Maybe the play is a bomber for show that might pay $8.20 as a number of horses should be folding up shop late to save for a better day. Then again, best move is likely to sit and watch Magnum Moon and see if he'll challenge Justify for Derby favoritism?

If Magnum.Moon wins, you may be right about him challenging Justify for being the favorite on derby day.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

If Magnum.Moon wins, you may be right about him challenging Justify for being the favorite on derby day.

agree, something like 3/1 and 7/2, of course its actually a deep field, could be a bit higher like 4/1 and 9/2.

[Immortal6]

Taking another look at pps and rewatching Magnum Moon's last race, who in here can really challenge him if he is tuned up and ready to run. Changing my wager here to key him over top the Asmussen entries in 2nd, gotta throw in Solomini to the third spot as he will refuse to change leads in the stretch but likely clunk up for a piece. Don't usually like betting back Tampa horses but Quip needs to be included underneath as well.

// ($6 .50 tri)

Still like Dream Baby Dream here and will place small win wager on him as I think he will benefit most if there's a pace melt down. The would need to take a big step up to win, but it isn't completely out of the question. Look forward to the race, but I'm really rooting for Magnum Moon to win by open lengths just to throw another wrinkle into what is already a very deep Derby field.

[f2tornado]

Primary bet is a /// superfecta wager. I reversed the top two on other wagers.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If you believe in the form cycle of Good Magic, don't you believe Solomini is going to run a bang up race? Magnum ran one of the better preps this season. Really excited to see what he has in the tank. His 221 Route ranking in a sprint hasn't been duplicated but he can do it in his 3rd route. The race itself will probably unbettable. But if I even get 7/2 on Solomini I am betting. Good luck boys!

[boys at tosconova]

only horse that can beat MM is solomini.

solomini should not be worst than 3rd in this race either. they didn't even let the horse run last time. if there ever was a time to let it out a notch it's here

pray they run away and hide and a non figure horse finishes 3rd

6/5/all
6/all/5
5/6/all

[PhantomOnTour]

Prat will put Solomini on the lead and try to take them all the way. Quip is the only one who can deny him the lead.
Baffert will have him ready...can I get 3-1 odds??