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Old 04-10-2018, 01:33 PM   #1
menifee
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Mendelssohn at 8-1 vs Justify at 3-1 in KD

You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.
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Old 04-10-2018, 01:45 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by menifee View Post
You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.
Personally, I think the betting person should only use the tote board to design a wager rather than to make the wager. If a person prefers Justify but doesn't like 3-1 then perhaps this person should look at the horizontal or vertical gimmicks... or sit it out. I suppose if a person liked both of these horses then the player could bet both to win and hope the longer odds horse wins. If the shorter one comes in the player still makes even money on the combined bet.
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Old 04-10-2018, 02:28 PM   #3
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You have to take Mendelssohn right? There’s no way a serious bettor could think Justify is a better bet here.
May be a great deal, may be a bad deal. I don't know.

If I had to take a wild guess I'd have Justify 2/1 and Mendelssohn 30/1 on my fair odds line (while not necessarily eager betting either one at those prices), but I haven't had more than a superficial look at Mendelssohn, and I could eventually rate him much higher.


I have to extrapolate a lot more with Mendolssohn's form.

How does his ability translate to the Kentucky Derby? Has he taken dirt in the face? What is his running style? How good was his UAE Derby when he had a trip to run his top? Would Vino Rosso (an American grinder with classic-distance stamina) been able to lead that field and run just as nice looking a performance, or was it indicative of special ability that would apply to the Derby? How much can we learn from his entire body of work? Are his works available for viewing?


Justify, we already know has crop-leading talent. It's just a matter of him running his race. Beating Justify is about hoping he doesn't rate, or doesn't change leads, or has a bad trip. The 'translation' part is already over.
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:12 PM   #4
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Betting on a horse who rode against a golden rail, moderate pace and final figure, loose on the lead at 8/1 in a field of 20 goes against everything I believe in.

If he beats me good luck! I give him at best 5% chance of winning, I give Justify about 20%

So yea, I guess I will take the 3/1
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:28 PM   #5
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shit, meant with a golden rail
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Old 04-10-2018, 03:51 PM   #6
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i don't think mendelssohn will be 8-1. i just think he'll have off the charts backing. i think he'll be the second choice behind justy

then i think bolt will be third followed by audible.

i still think, like i did before the SA that audible will not only a strong contender for the KD i think he'll be value as well.
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Old 04-10-2018, 04:49 PM   #7
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The best bet

The best bet is to have Scat Daddy in the futures pool at 27-1 or whatever the odds closed at.
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Old 04-10-2018, 05:22 PM   #8
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loose on the lead at 8/1 in a field of 20 goes against everything I believe in.
As opposed to Justify's loose on the lead against a field of 6.
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Old 04-10-2018, 07:57 PM   #9
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Yeah, that's almost as bad as that plug Secretariat lose on the lead against a field of 5.
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Old 04-10-2018, 08:02 PM   #10
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I think Mendelssohn' performance is being overrated. He's a very good horse, but Meydan was very kind to speed that day.
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Old 04-10-2018, 08:03 PM   #11
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Neither. Fool's gold.
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Old 04-10-2018, 10:11 PM   #12
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Justify at 2/1 and Mendelssohn at 30/1 ??????

Please tell me that was a typo and it was supposed to be 3/1 lol

Mendelssohn won a Breeders Cup race and Justify beat a few 5 horse fields filled with second tier allowance horses. Oh and he won that match race with Bolt but often when a horse has a big pace edge in a match race he wins regardless if he is the best horse.
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Old 04-10-2018, 10:16 PM   #13
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Justify has crop leading talent ...

Based off what ???????

Because he beat Bolt once ????

Bolt hasn’t made it to the wire first in his last 3 races ...

Good Magic and Mendelssohn both have resumes that put Justify to shame
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Old 04-10-2018, 10:20 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by boys at tosconova View Post
i don't think mendelssohn will be 8-1. i just think he'll have off the charts backing. i think he'll be the second choice behind justy

then i think bolt will be third followed by audible.

i still think, like i did before the SA that audible will not only a strong contender for the KD i think he'll be value as well.
These are the odds I’m seeing in the off-shore pools.
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Old 04-10-2018, 10:22 PM   #15
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The only reason Justify is the favorite right now is because so many people are so emotionally invested in him being the next American Pharoah they are betting with their emotions not brains. It’s the same reason Gronkowski will probably go off as the 7th or 8th betting choice even though he by far had the least chance to win as any horse that will run in the derby. People just like his name because of Gronk the football player . It’s people betting with their emotions rather than brains. Justify is clearly not anywhere near the racehorse Mendelssohn is ...
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