blue grass stakes not presented by yum brands

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

What'd he close in this last pool? Just curious.

He was 11-1 in Pool 3. Sitting at 10-1 now. Justify hype allowing for nice odds on most everything else. I have him over and under about half the gate courtesy of the All Others button in Pool 1 & 2.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

Should've seen Good Magic in the paddock. A handful the whole way, he was the absolute last to be led away from the stone stalls and looked like Floyd Maywether headed to the ring with his entourage. Clearly I'm redboarding but he was always winning.

Redboarding a sub 2-1=

[PoloUK6108]

Whatever man just saying I'm discussing the race after the fact. He looked like a winner

[PoloUK6108]

And the way people were talking before Saturday he should've floated way up not taken a ton. All I saw was knocks against him

[classhandicapper]

I played Sporting Chance off his wide trip close to the pace last time and the fact that that I thought he was better as a 2yo than given credit for. I had him Win/Place and in a big exacta box with Good Magic.

Anyone besides me think he was about to take 2nd when he bore out?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

Whatever man just saying I'm discussing the race after the fact. He looked like a winner

I'm just cuttin jokes anyway! So many players are so redboard sensitive it cracks me up. On big race days with all the prep and focus going into being the best player you can be that day it's often not a top priority to go get your prerace analysis in on whatever boards you are on. Much of the decision making goes at 5 minutes or so to post. But we like to talk turkey about the game and that often lasts well into the night after the races. It's fun! I get it!

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I played Sporting Chance off his wide trip close to the pace last time and the fact that that I thought he was better as a 2yo than given credit for. I had him Win/Place and in a big exacta box with Good Magic.

Anyone besides me think he was about to take 2nd when he bore out?

I thought so.

He looked like a drunken sailor late.


Had a double-key with in the superfecta, with some coverage elsewhere to net a bomb

Not a huge Sporting Chance fan, but he's a solid horse, coming off a wide trip vs. stakes quality, and figured to be inside speed today. Didn't get loose or anything, but he hung in there and ran his race. Unfortunately the sequence was soc chalky it was like $26 or something. I did all 6 combos (1st2nd, 1st3rd,1st4th,2nd3rd,24,34) so $26 was a net loss.

Tough betting race when there are so many attractive values and then the low-priced fav not only wins, but the whole ticket runs pure chalk...

One of those things where if the fav (11) is one of your keys, you are going to need some luck with a longshot or two just to break even. Pass is better, or use the race as a single in a multi.

made a heck of a middle move, but never really had a chance wide. Assuming healthy, he should be tough in the right spot (is there a 7f/M race for 3yos on Derby day?

- I have to re-watch his race. Obviously a contender, but I want to look how much if any that wide post hurt his performance, and whether he did significant running to overcome that. - or was it a with the flow decent trip...

[Michael]

I bet Sporting Chance on top also and didn't mess with the exotics. Couldn't believe my eyes... he lugged in-AND-out fairly hard. Maybe It was wrong to bet against the I still think the bet was a solid look.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

He looked like a drunken sailor late.

What was the deal there? The first time I watched the replay I thought he spooked by a long shadow thrown by a pole on the rail. The next time I watched, that incident looked like he veered out at precisely the moment his jock went from right-hand to left-hand whip.

[PoloUK6108]

Buzzer? ...Lukas and saez at it again

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

What was the deal there? The first time I watched the replay I thought he spooked by a long shadow thrown by a pole on the rail. The next time I watched, that incident looked like he veered out at precisely the moment his jock went from right-hand to left-hand whip.

Remember that Sporting Chance did something very similar in last year's Hopeful in which he was still able to hold on for the victory.

It is no coincidence that Sporting Chance had knee surgery a couple of weeks after the Hopeful.

Or he simply hates Free Drop Billy...

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Remember that Sporting Chance did something very similar in last year's Hopeful in which he was still able to hold on for the victory.

It is no coincidence that Sporting Chance had knee surgery a couple of weeks after the Hopeful.

Or he simply hates Free Drop Billy...

Thanks, Spalding No!. Do you have access to the head-on of that Hopeful? I just watched it several times, and it appears to me that in the stretch Sporting Chance was traveling in a generally straight line, with some outward motion, but not a whole lot. Saez got him straightened up with the right whip. Then it looks to me like Saez switched to the left whip and the horse immediately bolted hard to the outside, just like yesterday. You have to watch very closely for the hand change.

Maybe someone with better eyes will see it differently. I'm beginning to think that for some reason this horse doesn't want to be hit on the left side.

Mule

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Thanks, Spalding No!. Do you have access to the head-on of that Hopeful? I just watched it several times, and it appears to me that in the stretch Sporting Chance was traveling in a generally straight line, with some outward motion, but not a whole lot. Saez got him straightened up with the right whip. Then it looks to me like Saez switched to the left whip and the horse immediately bolted hard to the outside, just like yesterday. You have to watch very closely for the hand change.

Maybe someone with better eyes will see it differently. I'm beginning to think that for some reason this horse doesn't want to be hit on the left side.

Mule

YouTube

Above is the broadcast of the entire racecard. Check about 1 hour and 9 minutes in for some headon replays.

The horse was already drifting out prior to the left hand stick. While your point about use of the whip is valid (and a common excuse for horses that do these things), what's really happening more often than not is that the jockey is switching sticks in reaction to the horse's movements...not the other way around.

Consider related trip notes such as "drifted out - bore out - lugged out - bolted" as being on a kind of continuum. All these things from minor to extreme typically point to soundness problems with the horse.

Such antics are also dismissed as "greeness" and "inexperience", but the reality is the horse likely has physical issues. Note that the horse is pulled up fairly quickly without much of a gallop out. Also of interest the head-on stride of Sporting Chance, he has a much more exaggerated and wide action than his rivals which hints at conformational faults that can predispose a horse to physical problems.

Again, it was no coincidence that Sporting Chance required surgery and a layoff following the Hopeful. We'll see how quickly he reappears after this weekend's race. He might not get time off this time (since he's had surgery recently), but even if he is able to train I wouldn't anticipate improved performance without a significant drop in class.

[Michael]

@Spalding No!

Fantastic posts. Exactly why I still visit these forums. There's always opinions and things to read and learn. I'm sure many have forgotten more about horse racing then i've ever know.

For the sake of contrast, I've also learned what not to do from this forum jkjk

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Michael

@Spalding No!

Fantastic posts. Exactly why I still visit these forums. There's always opinions and things to read and learn. I'm sure many have forgotten more about horse racing then i've ever know.

For the sake of contrast, I've also learned what not to do from this forum jkjk

Thanks. You have to take all this with a grain of salt. Just because there are subtle or conspicuous signs in a horse's running line doesn't necessarily mean they are ailing significantly or can't perform in the near term.

Elsewhere I mentioned that Justify's stretch drive in the Santa Anita Derby was similar to Dortmund's in 2015 (both labored to switch leads and drifted thereafter). Dortmund lost his right front shoe in his race. As it turns out, Justify twisted his right front shoe out of place yesterday. If you are willing to factor in such seemingly minor details when handicapping, it becomes a chicken-or-the egg kind of problem. Did the loss of a shoe result in change in stride or did a change in stride (due to physical discomfort) cause the shoe to come off?

Probably more important than anything else with respect to Justify is that it hints at some chink(s) in the armor (as opposed to Michael Wrona's unobstructed "ascent to greatness") that remind us that Baffert--regardless of what he says to the press-- is applying a lot of pressure to Justify in order to get him to Churchill Downs.

At the same time, you can complain about the other big winners this weekend. Good Magic labored to clear a beleaguered frontrunner (Flameaway) in the stretch and swapped back to his left lead. Vino Rosso lugged in repeatedly and impeded a foe while winning the Wood Memorial.