Trump signs tariffs

[elysiantraveller]

Didn't see any personal attacks in there. Just a breakdown thus far of what's happened.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Reciprocal tariff everyone, if Europe implodes oh well.

Except he didn't do that...

Originally Posted by fast4522

Who are you trying to shit, cars alone will bring Germany to its knees, I could care less that you have to pay 30% more for your BMW. Everyone living paycheck to paycheck will laugh at you.

Or that either...

He didn't really do anything... the steel tariff was all bluster to fire up his base, piss off our allies, manufacture market volatility, and accomplish nothing.

[incoming]

Originally Posted by Clocker

I don't follow the markets closely, but I am seeing a lot that indicates increasing volatility and worry.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/ma...ter/ar-AAvgqAI

On target....job reports will be interesting this Friday. I think we both can agree the economy is more than primed for a good recovery.

[classhandicapper]

The stock market was doomed to a serious correction no matter who was president because the valuations by most standards are as high or higher than at any point in history (including 1929, 2000, and 2008) and the Fed was going into a tightening cycle. I've been saying since before the election republicans would probably be better off losing because they would get blamed by the pinheads and liars in the media for the almost inevitable bear market that was coming. No one knows when these things will happen, but you can know valuations are too high.

Almost everything Trump has done so far has increased the intrinsic value of American business whether it be cuts in corporate taxes, allowing companies to bring cash earned overseas back home without a significant double taxation, and reducing regulations. This is not debatable. It's math. If it wasn't for Trump policy the stock market would almost certainly be a lot lower than it is now because the businesses themselves would be worth less than they are right now.

It's shocking to me how republicans are falling for liberal propaganda and the ignorance coming from the media because they started from a position of hating Trump and are looking for affirmation of what they originally believed instead of trying to figure what is actually happening like they usually do.

[incoming]

I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by incoming

I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

I'm never totally out, but I slowly took some chips off the table over the least 2-3 years, raised cash, and built a position in gold/silver miners. I'm waiting for another 10% pull back and then maybe I'll start nibbling again at other things. I'm not a timer at all. I just try to buy great companies at sensible prices for the long term. Prices simply haven't been sensible enough for my taste to want to buy or keep much. But unquestionably, Trump's policy has made stocks more attractive than they were before he took over.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by incoming

I got out of stocks in 2010 and moved to Forex. I am thinking seriously about putting 25.% of my bank back in stocks for all the reasons you mentioned. I will wait at least 6 months and see how things shake out. I'm a day trader, but I will be an investor in stocks.

In the middle of 2010, the S&P 500 traded at 11.2x forward earnings. Currently that metric stands at 16.3x. In 2010, operating margins for the S&P 500 averaged 14.3%. At present, that metric is 16.3%, very full by historical standards. Central banks around the world have flooded the globe with liquidity since 2010.

So what's different now? Stocks are arguably expensive, not cheap. Margins are arguably full, not quasi-depressed. By late fall, central banks could be in contractionary mode, not expansionary mode. In the long run, betting against the US stock market is almost always a losing proposition, but it's hard to believe the market hasn't already discounted Trump's/GOP's market friendly policies.

[fast4522]

elysiantraveller, Expect things to happen in steps as prioritized.

Today the focus is China China China, if you follow President Trump he does what he says. Maybe not when he says it but more like "stay tuned more to come".

[incoming]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

In the middle of 2010, the S&P 500 traded at 11.2x forward earnings. Currently that metric stands at 16.3x. In 2010, operating margins for the S&P 500 averaged 14.3%. At present, that metric is 16.3%, very full by historical standards. Central banks around the world have flooded the globe with liquidity since 2010.

So what's different now? Stocks are arguably expensive, not cheap. Margins are arguably full, not quasi-depressed. By late fall, central banks could be in contractionary mode, not expansionary mode. In the long run, betting against the US stock market is almost always a losing proposition, but it's hard to believe the market hasn't already discounted Trump's/GOP's market friendly policies.

Don' t want to carry the thread any more further afield. Short answer....I'm a technician not a fundamentalist....out.

[Clocker]

The administration is preparing a tariff filing on more than 1,300 specific Chinese imports. Most of the products listed appear to be machinery or parts to be used by American manufacturers.

About two-thirds of our imports from China are parts or machinery used by US manufacturers in the production of American made products. So all costs of tariffs will be passed through to the American consumer.

Chinese retaliatory tariffs on American exports are expected, which will ultimately hurt American businesses that won't be able to sell their products in China, one of the world's fastest growing markets.

In a 58-page filing, the Office of the United States Trade Representative argues that the new tariffs are necessary to counteract China's unfair use and theft of American intellectual property and technology. The tariffs will not take affect immediately, but will be subject to a public hearing on May 15 with a final decision on the tariffs expected by mid-summer.

http://reason.com/blog/2018/04/05/he...l-piss-you-off

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by Clocker

The administration is preparing a tariff filing on more than 1,300 specific Chinese imports. Most of the products listed appear to be machinery or parts to be used by American manufacturers.

About two-thirds of our imports from China are parts or machinery used by US manufacturers in the production of American made products. So all costs of tariffs will be passed through to the American consumer.

Chinese retaliatory tariffs on American exports are expected, which will ultimately hurt American businesses that won't be able to sell their products in China, one of the world's fastest growing markets.

http://reason.com/blog/2018/04/05/he...l-piss-you-off

Compare what a machinist made for a living 30 years ago to what a machinist makes today.

Guess what folks, the same money. We have hollowed out our country for China. I say turn the screws to the Chinese government all the way.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Compare what a machinist made for a living 30 years ago to what a machinist makes today.

Guess what folks, the same money. We have hollowed out our country for China. I say turn the screws to the Chinese government all the way.

How do tariffs increase wages for the machinist?

If anything they would lower them as the company needs to pay less for labor to offset the now more expensive input and keep their margins.

[fast4522]

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

How do tariffs increase wages for the machinist?

If anything they would lower them as the company needs to pay less for labor to offset the now more expensive input and keep their margins.

Offset this thought and offset that thought if you want, 40 years of stupidity can not be solved over night. When you think about the miles and miles of shipping containers clogging up our shipping ports can be turned into tariffs in the trillions.

[elysiantraveller]

Originally Posted by fast4522

Offset this thought and offset that thought if you want, 40 years of stupidity can not be solved over night. When you think about the miles and miles of shipping containers clogging up our shipping ports can be turned into tariffs in the trillions.

So... it won't... just checking.

Now we are on to trillions of dollars paid for by the machinist on good arriving in containers...?

[Tom]

Pretty sure the sun came up today.......