Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 03-15-2018, 08:56 AM   #121
JerryBoyle
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
I can't agree with you on this. Sports-betting allows much larger wagers than horse racing does...simply because the sports-betting wagers are FIXED, and do not adversely affect the bettor who makes them. Sports-betting also allows the bettor to hold down a regular job, and tend to his family obligations, while still seriously engaging in his gambling endeavor...while horse racing is run during the time of day that is considered very inconvenient for the vast majority of its prospective customers who happen to hold down regular jobs. And let's not even bother to address the "integrity factor" involved in these two competing gambling venues.

All in all...I believe that sports-betting offers advantages to the serious bettor that horse racing cannot even BEGIN to approach.
I don't think bold should be taken as fact. Fixed odds betting does not guarantee that you can put down more money on an event. I get your point that large wagers in a pari-mutuel system drop the price, but once bookies know you're a sharp you'll have minimums set quickly. From a modeling perspective, I think PM systems allow a bettor to better estimate how much he can put down. It's simply solving for bet size given pool total. With fixed-odds, I need to figure out how many friends I can get to place bets for me. That said, personally, I think exchange betting is the best of both worlds.

Being a sharp sports bettor requires no different time commitment than being a sharp horse player, at least structurally. Maybe one is harder than the other, but the timing of events argument is not valid.

Integrity factor I agree with if you mean race fixing/trainers obfuscating facts/etc. Those are not good, but not so bad that they stop a serious bettor from gaining edge. If you're talking about all the "late odds changes" shenanigans, I disagree.
JerryBoyle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 01:15 PM   #122
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
1. No self-respecting bookie would ever refuse a customer's wager. If you are a proven winning player, then the bookie may even offer you a "bonus" for betting with him...because then he can use your sound betting knowledge to his own advantage.

2. Yes...sports are contested on the weekdays. But they don't obligate you to immerse yourself in them for at least four hours during the time of day when you need to show up at your job.

3. If we can't even agree that our professional sports are more "honest" than the horse races are...then the two of us really have nothing more to talk about.
You miss the point on 3.

Yes other sports are more honest. But part of that honesty is a rule that thery are actually not allowed to try to win your bet for you. That isn't dishonesty. But it has the exact same effect on a bettor as dishonesty in horse racing does. In both cases, the competitor is not trying to win your bet.

(EDIT: also, on 1, if the bookie is knowingly welcoming giant amounts of action from a player, it almost certainly does not mean the player is a winner and the bookie is using the information. It means something else. )

Last edited by dilanesp; 03-15-2018 at 01:18 PM.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 01:59 PM   #123
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
I don't think bold should be taken as fact. Fixed odds betting does not guarantee that you can put down more money on an event. I get your point that large wagers in a pari-mutuel system drop the price, but once bookies know you're a sharp you'll have minimums set quickly. From a modeling perspective, I think PM systems allow a bettor to better estimate how much he can put down. It's simply solving for bet size given pool total. With fixed-odds, I need to figure out how many friends I can get to place bets for me. That said, personally, I think exchange betting is the best of both worlds.

Being a sharp sports bettor requires no different time commitment than being a sharp horse player, at least structurally. Maybe one is harder than the other, but the timing of events argument is not valid.

Integrity factor I agree with if you mean race fixing/trainers obfuscating facts/etc. Those are not good, but not so bad that they stop a serious bettor from gaining edge. If you're talking about all the "late odds changes" shenanigans, I disagree.
The sports bettor, if he chooses, can bet several thousands of dollars on a basketball or baseball game, and tens of thousands of dollars on a football game, without ever resorting to the assistance of any of his friends when placing his bets. If he tries to do that in horse racing...he ends up decimating his own odds. This is the reality of the matter...regardless of whether we accept it or not.

When I made my "convenience" argument...I wasn't talking about the time-commitment involved in handicapping races or sports. I was talking about the additional time-commitment that the horseplayer has to make while the races are being run. Horse-betting being what it is, the horseplayer has to actually be attentive as the races are run, in order to actualize the "edge" that he supposedly holds on the game...because the complexity of the game does not allow him to place all his bets before the races start, so he can then spend the rest of his day however else he chooses. Track biases, late scratches, surprising tote-board action, etc, are all factors that affect the structuring of the wagers that the sharp horseplayer has to make. And the sad truth is that the races are currently being run while the vast majority of the horseplayers are otherwise occupied.

I've been a horseplayer and a sports-bettor for many years...and I find that betting sports is the much more convenient gambling venture.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:08 PM   #124
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
You miss the point on 3.

Yes other sports are more honest. But part of that honesty is a rule that thery are actually not allowed to try to win your bet for you. That isn't dishonesty. But it has the exact same effect on a bettor as dishonesty in horse racing does. In both cases, the competitor is not trying to win your bet.

(EDIT: also, on 1, if the bookie is knowingly welcoming giant amounts of action from a player, it almost certainly does not mean the player is a winner and the bookie is using the information. It means something else. )
Tell the truth...where did you ever hear that a sports-bettor had his action refused by a bookie? You seem to be a nice guy, and you know your way around a poker table...but your sports-betting knowledge isn't up to par, IMO. This was revealed when you posted in another thread here that the major sportsbooks in Vegas had raised their takeouts on the NFL playoff games to the -115 and even the -120 level. I responded to you in that thread by pointing out your obvious oversight in this matter...and you never acknowledged your mistake.

Come to Vegas...and I promise you that we will be able to bet whatever amount you want on these games, without any problem at all.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:12 PM   #125
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The sports bettor, if he chooses, can bet several thousands of dollars on a basketball or baseball game, and tens of thousands of dollars on a football game, without ever resorting to the assistance of any of his friends when placing his bets. If he tries to do that in horse racing...he ends up decimating his own odds. This is the reality of the matter...regardless of whether we accept it or not.

When I made my "convenience" argument...I wasn't talking about the time-commitment involved in handicapping races or sports. I was talking about the additional time-commitment that the horseplayer has to make while the races are being run. Horse-betting being what it is, the horseplayer has to actually be attentive as the races are run, in order to actualize the "edge" that he supposedly holds on the game...because the complexity of the game does not allow him to place all his bets before the races start, so he can then spend the rest of his day however else he chooses. Track biases, late scratches, surprising tote-board action, etc, are all factors that affect the structuring of the wagers that the sharp horseplayer has to make. And the sad truth is that the races are currently being run while the vast majority of the horseplayers are otherwise occupied.

I've been a horseplayer and a sports-bettor for many years...and I find that betting sports is the much more convenient gambling venture.
I would think that if any "edge" exists at all in sports betting, it would come from the same close observation of the sport as handicappers must make. For instance, it would be really useful from watching game film to determine that a number 7 seed in the NCAA tournament has a defense that will match up particularly well against the 2 seed in that region. How will you find that out? By doing a ton of homework. Just like horse race bettors have to do.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:14 PM   #126
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Tell the truth...where did you ever hear that a sports-bettor had his action refused by a bookie? You seem to be a nice guy, and you know your way around a poker table...but your sports-betting knowledge isn't up to par, IMO. This was revealed when you posted in another thread here that the major sportsbooks in Vegas had raised their takeouts on the NFL playoff games to the -115 and even the -120 level. I responded to you in that thread by pointing out your obvious oversight in this matter...and you never acknowledged your mistake.

Come to Vegas...and I promise you that we will be able to bet whatever amount you want on these games, without any problem at all.
I don't remember that thread, but I do remember being in the Tropicana sports book before the conference championship games this past January when the book was offering unbalanced lines where the percentage takeout had obviously been increased.

Last edited by dilanesp; 03-15-2018 at 02:15 PM.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:15 PM   #127
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I would think that if any "edge" exists at all in sports betting, it would come from the same close observation of the sport as handicappers must make. For instance, it would be really useful from watching game film to determine that a number 7 seed in the NCAA tournament has a defense that will match up particularly well against the 2 seed in that region. How will you find that out? By doing a ton of homework. Just like horse race bettors have to do.
You can tape these games and watch them at your convenience...but the races must be acted upon in "real time". Surely you can ascertain the difference...
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:17 PM   #128
JerryBoyle
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The sports bettor, if he chooses, can bet several thousands of dollars on a basketball or baseball game, and tens of thousands of dollars on a football game, without ever resorting to the assistance of any of his friends when placing his bets. If he tries to do that in horse racing...he ends up decimating his own odds. This is the reality of the matter...regardless of whether we accept it or not.

When I made my "convenience" argument...I wasn't talking about the time-commitment involved in handicapping races or sports. I was talking about the additional time-commitment that the horseplayer has to make while the races are being run. Horse-betting being what it is, the horseplayer has to actually be attentive as the races are run, in order to actualize the "edge" that he supposedly holds on the game...because the complexity of the game does not allow him to place all his bets before the races start, so he can then spend the rest of his day however else he chooses. Track biases, late scratches, surprising tote-board action, etc, are all factors that affect the structuring of the wagers that the sharp horseplayer has to make. And the sad truth is that the races are currently being run while the vast majority of the horseplayers are otherwise occupied.

I've been a horseplayer and a sports-bettor for many years...and I find that betting sports is the much more convenient gambling venture.
I can get down thousands of dollars on a horse race and maintain edge assuming I'm betting all pools. And there are many more races than there are football games or hockey games or whatever sport you prefer other than maybe baseball?. I'd wager $5 that one running a betting operation can get down more money in a year on horse racing than he can on any other sport in the USA. Admittedly, I've never bet on sports, but I feel confident about this from what I've read from professional sports bettors.

The start of the discussion was about savvy bettors who are searching for edge. Presumably, you have to actively try at that, so is a convenience argument relevant? I agree that there is more data changing and available to analyze prior to the start of a horse race than any other sport, but I think most of it can be automated. Certainly things such as late scratches, jockey changes, etc. I currently run a system which accounts for all of that and is entirely automated. The one thing you mention that I don't account for is prior performances on that day's card (from which we could obtain track bias). But I could if I wanted to scrap the results. I also don't use any visual clues some use such as paddock behavior or whether the horse took a massive shite.
JerryBoyle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:18 PM   #129
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You can tape these games and watch them at your convenience...but the races must be acted upon in "real time". Surely you can ascertain the difference...
The only thing real time in racing is (1) the odds and (2) sight handicapping.

(2) has an analogue in sports, which is watchng pregame workouts, field conditions, wind, etc. Nobody does it, but there is definitely information contained therein. Lots of bettors don't watch post parades either.

As for (1), you can easily hold a day job and then take a couple of minutes break right before a race you are interested in and check the odds on an ADW site.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:19 PM   #130
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I don't remember that thread, but I do remember being in the Tropicana sports book before the conference championship games this past January when the book was offering unbalanced lines where the percentage takeout had obviously been increased.
The takeout was increased on one team...but DECREASED on the other. When one side features a -115 takeout...the OTHER side's takeout is reduced to -105. This is a strategy that the bookie sometimes employs when he tries to swing action to a particular side without moving the line off of a "key number". This is a far cry from declaring that "the takeout has obviously increased"...because the totality of the wager is still offered at -110.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:21 PM   #131
JerryBoyle
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 845
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Tell the truth...where did you ever hear that a sports-bettor had his action refused by a bookie? You seem to be a nice guy, and you know your way around a poker table...but your sports-betting knowledge isn't up to par, IMO. This was revealed when you posted in another thread here that the major sportsbooks in Vegas had raised their takeouts on the NFL playoff games to the -115 and even the -120 level. I responded to you in that thread by pointing out your obvious oversight in this matter...and you never acknowledged your mistake.

Come to Vegas...and I promise you that we will be able to bet whatever amount you want on these games, without any problem at all.
Here's a video of Bob Voulgaris repeatedly bashing an exec from Cantor Gaming because they are disingenuous about the action they'll let sharp bettors get down:
And I believe Bob mentions that Cantor is better than most other sports books. Also, I vaguely recall another interview he mentions that part of the value he provided in his operation was knowing how to get $$ down
JerryBoyle is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:26 PM   #132
ultracapper
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
You can get a bet down on a Sunday game that you feel real strong about on Thursday and forget about it. You can be sure the line may move, but if it's one of those games that you're totally set on, the 2 or 3 points it could move either way probably isn't going to deter you. You gotta keep your eye on any news coming out of practice, and maybe the weather forecast, but there are many football games you can get down in advance and let it go. If you have a horse you really like Sunday afternoon, I would strongly suggest putting the time aside starting an hour or so before post, and keep your eye on a little bit of everything until the race goes off.
ultracapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:33 PM   #133
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
The takeout was increased on one team...but DECREASED on the other. When one side features a -115 takeout...the OTHER side's takeout is reduced to -105. This is a strategy that the bookie sometimes employs when he tries to swing action to a particular side without moving the line off of a "key number". This is a far cry from declaring that "the takeout has obviously increased"...because the totality of the wager is still offered at -110.
1. The line was 120-105, as I recall. That is more than the usual 4.5 percent even assuming equivalent action.

2. This works in combination with expected value analysis that is too deep for this thread. But essentially, a good book can increase its takeout substantially by (1) adjusting the money line on point spread bets while (2) having an accurate predictive model about betting action. As a result, sports books are now making far more than 4.5 percent on point spread bets. They have increased their takeout.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:35 PM   #134
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
1. The line was 120-105, as I recall. That is more than the usual 4.5 percent even assuming equivalent action.

2. This works in combination with expected value analysis that is too deep for this thread. But essentially, a good book can increase its takeout substantially by (1) adjusting the money line on point spread bets while (2) having an accurate predictive model about betting action. As a result, sports books are now making far more than 4.5 percent on point spread bets. They have increased their takeout.
You are wrong again. The line was -120/-100.
__________________
Live to play another day.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-15-2018, 02:39 PM   #135
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
You are wrong again. The line was -120/-100.
At the Tropicana it was 120-105. I know this because I had a fairly long conversation with a sports book employee about it.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.