final 3/8 final 1/8

[sbcaris]

Its tough to eliminate horses but if I was forced to do it right now I would eliminate the entire field of the Fla Derby as there was not a single horse that ran a fast final fraction (either 3/8 or 1/8) in that race.

I will have to see the chart for the La Derby to determine if any of those raced a fast final 3/8, 1/8. I believe the first two under the wire did qualify but I am not sure about War Story.

[minethatbird08]

Agree, FL Derby was slow the whole way. It's not like fast early fractions took anything out of them and they crawled home.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Its tough to eliminate horses but if I was forced to do it right now I would eliminate the entire field of the Fla Derby as there was not a single horse that ran a fast final fraction (either 3/8 or 1/8) in that race.

I will have to see the chart for the La Derby to determine if any of those raced a fast final 3/8, 1/8. I believe the first two under the wire did qualify but I am not sure about War Story.

I don't know. Right now I would have to say that Materiality has to be the KD favorite. I will hold out any predictions until the field is set and I can analyze the race as the whole organism for which it is.

EDIT: I also use a proprietary "Late Pace" Rating and Materiality's was very high and 1st by over 5 lengths on this field coming into the race. Upstart's was second. Materiality's rating will be one of the top ones entering the KD.

[minethatbird08]

Final 3/8 in 37.4 final 1/8 in 12.73.

Didn't calculate for individual horses but safe to say the top 2 finished strong.

[sammy the sage]

I.star came home much faster than older in the race before...then again 1st part was considerably slower...

[sbcaris]

Here is what I calculated:

Horse------------------------6 furlong time-------9 F time----final 3/8

International Star--------------1:14---------------1:50 3/5-----36 3/5
Stanford------------------------1:13 1/5-----------1:50 3/5-----37 2/5
War Story----------------------1:13 4/5-----------1:51 3/5-----37 4/5
Keen Ice------------------------1:14 2/5-----------1:52---------37 3/5

I only go back to fourth position when calculating the final fractions and I use the formula 1 second on the clock equals 5 lengths. If a horse is 4 1/2 lengths behind I round it up to 5 lengths. If a horse is beaten by a neck I drop it and use the same time as the horse that beat him by a neck or nose or a head.

[PaceMasterT]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Here is what I calculated:

Horse------------------------6 furlong time-------9 F time----final 3/8

International Star--------------1:14---------------1:50 3/5-----36 3/5
Stanford------------------------1:13 1/5-----------1:50 3/5-----37 2/5
War Story----------------------1:13 4/5-----------1:51 3/5-----37 4/5
Keen Ice------------------------1:14 2/5-----------1:52---------37 3/5

I only go back to fourth position when calculating the final fractions and I use the formula 1 second on the clock equals 5 lengths. If a horse is 4 1/2 lengths behind I round it up to 5 lengths. If a horse is beaten by a neck I drop it and use the same time as the horse that beat him by a neck or nose or a head.

Numbers are all well and good, but how do you analyze personality? Horses have STRONG personalities and are VERY quirky. I would say that International Star was able to run his race and was never uncomfortable, thus he should have the best rating. In my opinion, Stanford does not want to be on the lead and will not run his best race leading the pack. (I might be wrong and I often am wrong). So, who's rating is better, IS's who was able to run the race he loves or Stanford, who was running against his nature?

EDIT: I would also add that the four that finished behind the top four finished there because they do not like "looking at the butts of other horses" and were forced to do that this race when none were allowed to fight for/take the lead.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

I.star came home much faster than older in the race before...then again 1st part was considerably slower...

Final time was better even with the slower pace, fwiw.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by PaceMasterT

I don't know. Right now I would have to say that Materiality has to be the KD favorite. I will hold out any predictions until the field is set and I can analyze the race as the whole organism for which it is.

EDIT: I also use a proprietary "Late Pace" Rating and Materiality's was very high and 1st by over 5 lengths on this field coming into the race. Upstart's was second. Materiality's rating will be one of the top ones entering the KD.

So... on basically a single race, Materiality, who beat Upstart by less than a length, is going to be the KD favorite?

Dortmund, who has never lost, will be behind Materiality amongst the wagering public? American Pharaoh, the 2YO champ, and romper in the Rebel, will be behind Materiality amongst the wagering public as well? International Star, undefeated as a 3YO, will be behind Materiality? Carpe Diem? Nobody from the Wood can impress?