my take on the Louisiana Derby

[boys at tosconova]

1- stanford- i think he'll be involved early. more likely get sucked into being used more. i guess you can say he can lay off the pace and stalk, (which remains to be seen) but having the rail forces his hand more imo...sure, he can improve and has pletcher. but even under optimum conditions he might not be good enough. this coming at a pretty low price as well...best scenario..lay off the lead and close for 2nd 3rd w/ underlay odds. do you like that?.

2--mr z - seems to fight and contest every lead of every race, and is usually around after all is said and done. hard to believe he;s still green w/ all of his racing. blinkers off? something has to give. runs same race versus everyone. my thinking is he's not good enough, and hasn't figured out how to solve his problems. better horses in here and he's unlikely to have things his way up front. i think he's more likely toast than champagne. still hard to ignore looking for the third horse under the 69 after cursory glances. seems like a default 3rd choice..not good imo..odds will be lame as well

3/4-fusiachi flame & delmondo - pipe dreams..what are you hoping for. a fast pace, rail hugging trip and close for 4/5th? rank outsiders hoping for a miracle...they can only mess up other horses if they decide to be involved early

5 - a day in paradise -when you look at this horse you see a nice 2nd vs war story on the engine. that race is enough to merit another look. i just don't know where this horse is going to be in the race or if he's fast/classy enough. or if he needs the front. could improve here, and should he be able to rate or stalk just off the lead might be around. lotz of "if" but the price should be right. if he doesn't leave things get easier for st joe bay.


6- war story.- seems like this horse and jock could be this years feel good story. i'm sure you'll hear all kinds of bayou spin and talamo coming home and potential 1st KD win. the media will eat this story up. but never mind that. i don't know if talamo is the right jock for this horse. every time i see talamo ride he's always pushing and asking horses for something early. in this race you don't need that, or want that. i think the gap between him and intnl star isn't that far, and war story might be in better position than him for this race. potential early pace only makes this horse better.


7-keen ice- one of the closer's that can benefit from the projected fast early pace. don't know if he's good enough though. had a ground saving trip and sucked up for 3rd in last, seems to be trending up and could be primed for a big one. i like romans, but do you really think he'll be good enough to out close both the the 6 and 9.. in the mix if he improves and get the projected early pace..distance should help.

8- st joe bay -this is the horse that's well under the radar that could surprise. the last race was a strong one. he was hounded throughout and still only lost by 2L finishing fourth. the 2nd place finish vs prospect park looks even better as the park has gotten better. miller said the horse doesn't need to be on the lead. and i really like hearing that. don;t like the added distance but if he can stalk and get a decent trip off of the speed this horse can light up the totes. anywhere from 20-40-1 is where he'll be...remember,,he lost by only 1 and 2L to war story and intl star....

9- international star- this horse will be over bet. what i did like in the risen star is that he showed the ability to show early foot. that is something this horse has never shown before. after that move that didn't get him that far he had a ground saving trip that race...where as war story went wide....the horse might still be getting better, but w/ st joe bay to his inside he shouldn;t be able to leave for position here w/o compromising his chances. he'll have to come from last or almost last to win this race. he's no lock and odds won't be good..

more to follow

[ArlJim78]

I'm not understanding the comments about International Star.
You say he showed some early foot last time, but tomorrow he'll have to come from last or near last. Why? St. Joe Bay was also to his inside on that day, and I believe he also had a wide post in the Risen Star. This time that hopeless front end horse of Dorochenko's (can't recall the name) is not in the field, so why wouldn't he be able to run forwardly again?

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I'm not understanding the comments about International Star.
You say he showed some early foot last time, but tomorrow he'll have to come from last or near last. Why? St. Joe Bay was also to his inside on that day, and I believe he also had a wide post in the Risen Star. This time that hopeless front end horse of Dorochenko's (can't recall the name) is not in the field, so why wouldn't he be able to run forwardly again?

what do you mean why? just where on earth do you think intnl star is going to be?..just because he made a half ass attempt to show early foot last week doesn't mean he's going to do it again..and it really didn't benefit him that much to begin with...i liked the fact that it was exposed, but this spot doesn't look good to do it again

[f2tornado]

Agree. Mr. Z and Stanford can run a pretty fast 3/4 mile and Star doesn't seem like the type to pace them. He's likely gonna be toward the back then pass tiring front runners in the long stretch. If War Story gets his tail out of the gate unlike his last two races then he's gonna be a real threat. I'll use both on top my exotics.

[boys at tosconova]

just a snippet on the post draw

pletcher saying he will likely be forwardly placed translates into gunning. i'm starting to put a line through the horse because of it.

POST 1 – STANFORD (Florent Geroux, 5-1)
Todd Pletcher (trainer) – “(I’m) happy with the post. He will likely be forwardly placed.”

POST 2 – MR. Z (Kent Desormeaux, 4-1)
D. Wayne Lukas (trainer) – “I don’t think it makes too much of a difference. There’s a good run to the first turn and nine horses. It’s fine; a good post and he has good natural speed.”

POST 3 – DEFONDO (Brian Hernandez, Jr., 12-1)
Dallas Stewart (trainer) – “It’s a good post. It’s a mile and an eighth race and there will be some speed and we’ll be able to lay back. We’re taking a shot and stepping way up in class, you just have to give these 3-year-olds opportunities to prove themselves and see where we’re at.”

POST 4 – FUSAICHI FLAME (Francisco Torres, 20-1)
Scott Gelner (trainer) – “I think it’s a very good hole, in the middle of the gate. It’s an advantage because he can be on the lead or sit off from there.”

POST 5 – A DAY IN PARADISE (Kerwin Clark, 12-1)
Larry Jones (trainer) – “I think it’s perfect. There are four to the inside and four to the outside. We’ll see what happens. We’ll find some way to get around there.”

POST 6 – WAR STORY (Joe Talamo, 4-1)
Tom Amoss (trainer) – “There’s quite a bit of speed in the race. Being in the six-hole and having quite a bit of speed inside of us, I think we have a favorable draw.”

POST 7 – KEEN ICE (James Graham, 5-1)
Dale Romans (trainer) – “It’s a decent post. It really doesn't make a difference; I would have just as well had the one-hole. Seven is a good post. He’s just going to drop out of it and make a run.”

POST 8 – ST. JOE BAY (Robby Albarado, 10-1)
Peter Miller (trainer) – “Perfect.”

POST 9 – INTERNATIONAL STAR (Miguel Mena, 3-1)
Mike Maker (trainer) – “We did better than last draw. We have a good enough horse; we’ll be fine.”

[boys at tosconova]

starting to get the feel that they'll be hitting the turn 1/2 or 2/1 w/ the 8 right behind. trainer of the 5 didn't divulge his hand

[letswastemoney]

Mr. Z has more ability than these horses. It's only a matter of whether he overcomes his mental problems and runs straight, and he can win by 5 if he does.

My take (although I wish I could change the end where I just recommended boxing the three favorites): LA Derby analysis

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

what do you mean why? just where on earth do you think intnl star is going to be?..just because he made a half ass attempt to show early foot last week doesn't mean he's going to do it again..and it really didn't benefit him that much to begin with...i liked the fact that it was exposed, but this spot doesn't look good to do it again

Looking now at his PP's, I'd say he'll hang back 5-6 lengths like usual.
He was exposed last time and didn't benefit? How so when it was without a doubt his best lifetime performance? I'm not saying he's the winner here I just don't understand the conclusion that tomorrow is going to be a radically different setup for him.

[SecretAgentMan]

I hope Mr Z does well, he's way over due for a win......Int Star IMO will use this race as a warm up towards the KD. It won't surprise me if IS wins, but I'm thinking he won't.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Looking now at his PP's, I'd say he'll hang back 5-6 lengths like usual.
He was exposed last time and didn't benefit? How so when it was without a doubt his best lifetime performance? I'm not saying he's the winner here I just don't understand the conclusion that tomorrow is going to be a radically different setup for him.

when i say exposed, i mean that in the sense the horse showed some versatility leaving the gate. i won't debate him being 5/6L off the lead..but in all seriousness he'll prolly be in the back of the pack..whether that's 6L or 8L remains to be seen

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

I hope Mr Z does well, he's way over due for a win......Int Star IMO will use this race as a warm up towards the KD. It won't surprise me if IS wins, but I'm thinking he won't.

int star should be coming late....but if there ever was a 750k race you're going to use as a prep and not go all out, this is it.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Mr. Z has more ability than these horses. It's only a matter of whether he overcomes his mental problems and runs straight, and he can win by 5 if he does.

My take (although I wish I could change the end where I just recommended boxing the three favorites): LA Derby analysis

strange horse..lukas seems like he runs his horses every week and they keep ticking ticking like a timex. horse has had plenty of time to put it together and it's been the same story every race...have to love the relentless pressure he effort he puts out

but i don't think he's good enough for a 5L win vs these. it would be impressive bottoming this field if he does.

if you like the 1/2, i would definitely use the 8 w/ them just as a possible lineup number..considering the favs are closers, anything can happen.

i personally think the 6 will win the race..and i like the 8 as a longshot...i might use the 2 w/ the 8 on a ticket. but if pletcher beats me., he beats me..no regret...... way to much risk vs reward w/ the 692 number imo..

[SecretAgentMan]

War Story seems to have bad luck on his break......his past 2 races he's broken slow & the jockey took him 4-5 wide on the 2nd turn both races I believe.

I would like to see War Story or Mr Z win this race. The extra length will help War Story......he seems to get back on track after those bad breaks & even worse rides by the jockey, & by the time he straightens out, the finish line is there......gonna be an interesting day for 3 year old racing.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

strange horse..lukas seems like he runs his horses every week and they keep ticking ticking like a timex. horse has had plenty of time to put it together and it's been the same story every race...have to love the relentless pressure he effort he puts out

but i don't think he's good enough for a 5L win vs these. it would be impressive bottoming this field if he does.

if you like the 1/2, i would definitely use the 8 w/ them just as a possible lineup number..considering the favs are closers, anything can happen.

i personally think the 6 will win the race..and i like the 8 as a longshot...i might use the 2 w/ the 8 on a ticket. but if pletcher beats me., he beats me..no regret...... way to much risk vs reward w/ the 692 number imo..

My problem with War Story is that he's had a clear shot twice in a row and couldn't outkick International Star. Like you wrote above though, International Star could be short on purpose for this race.

[Stoleitbreezing]

International Star will be ready to run his race, despite not needing the points for the derby the cash grab for 750K is reason enough to give him an honest ride. Now if he gets smashed out of the gate, or has some sort of trouble then I can see them just saving the horse for another day.

This race looks all International Star. Not sure why everyone is convinced he'll stiff tomorrow. The horses that everyone is trying to beat him have all failed to break through.

Stanford was trounced in an overnight stakes race in last when routing for the first time. Comment reads he was "veering" out in the lane, which is usually an indication of tiring. Miler at best, who has yet to hit the board against graded foes. Rail screams send job and probably fades after 5 or 6 furlongs.

Mr. Z already has had 10 starts and just one win. Not sure where some are expecting some big improvement without the shades. Both of his two turns races without the shades he was thoroughly beaten each time. Most I'm assuming are looking to capitalize on his 4/1 odds. Odds probably will be closer to 3-1 with most players hoping for his career performance tomorrow that will not happen. Don't get me wrong he's a nice horse winning 500K, but we should already know what Z is and Z isn't with 10 starts already. Looks like this year's version of Midnight Hawk or Ride on Curlin.

War Story has broken awkwardly away from the gate in all 4 of his starts. I heard they are going to be putting some sort of padding in the gate to reduce the amount of space for him to move around. He's finished 2nd in his last two despite the gate trouble, but when he's had dead aim on IS he's failed and IS drew clear. He reminds me a lot of Java's War. I think he has talent, but question how far he wants to go. Likely hits the board again tomorrow to make the derby gate. Gate problems and the extra distance are all negatives for the derby.

Keen Ice slow plodder type who is just an inch away from being a maiden. Many have pointed out the extra distance will help him, but fail to point out this horse was thoroughly beaten several lengths going two turns 3 straight races before his last. Over matched if he can make the derby field. Won't be on my tickets.

St. Joe Bay had the lead in his last 4 races and gave it up each time. Outside draw and the extra distance tomorrow do him no favors. The only time he hit the board against graded foes was against G3 sprinters. Last out was his best race to date, and he was still several lengths from the best here.

I have a great degree of respect for horses that show the professionalism to run in and outside of horses on multiple tracks and surfaces. He fires every time and has shown me he's a talented horse who can adapt on the fly. Odds will be right in the derby no matter what happens tomorrow. Ramsey's might get the derby victory this year.